Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[coxsmn] 14/11/2017 20:01

Agreed David, i can't think of a better place to be than here in the mining sector right now.

[davidspringbank] 14/11/2017 18:50

There's a commodity boom on the way, people see value in low commodity prices compared to overvalued stocks and are re-balancing their holdings.

[bootie64] 14/11/2017 09:01

A nice tick up yesterday and I thought a slow rise on the cards during the week, but wow:)

[mount teide] 14/11/2017 08:58

Chart break out

L2: 2 v 2 / 270p v 271p

[davidspringbank] 09/11/2017 11:32

Interesting so I've bought more and kicked off the rebound.

[coxsmn] 07/11/2017 19:29

Caml a must have for growth and income seekers alike.

[mount teide] 07/11/2017 09:00

Strong start with good volume - 436k reported in the first hour.

[coxsmn] 06/11/2017 20:51

Peel Hunt target 295p#Central Asia Metals | Buy | 295p TP | SASA deal closes, new shares trade for the first time Just a reminder that the Central Asia Metals shares issued as part of the SASA transaction trade for the first time this morning. CAML has 176.5m shares outstanding which includes the shares issued to Orion as part of the purchase price. We reiterate our 295p 12 month price target and Buy recommendation and reiterate our estimates include the SASA mine. On our 2018 estimates we see the shares trading 5.7x EV/EBITDA and offering a 6.3% dividend yield. At current spot metals prices the EV/EBITDA multiple falls to 4.6x and the dividend yield increases to 7.9% (assuming a constant percentage payout of free cash flows). #Corporate client of Peel Hunt Contact details

[coxsmn] 06/11/2017 20:51

Peel Hunt target 295p#Central Asia Metals | Buy | 295p TP | SASA deal closes, new shares trade for the first time Just a reminder that the Central Asia Metals shares issued as part of the SASA transaction trade for the first time this morning. CAML has 176.5m shares outstanding which includes the shares issued to Orion as part of the purchase price. We reiterate our 295p 12 month price target and Buy recommendation and reiterate our estimates include the SASA mine. On our 2018 estimates we see the shares trading 5.7x EV/EBITDA and offering a 6.3% dividend yield. At current spot metals prices the EV/EBITDA multiple falls to 4.6x and the dividend yield increases to 7.9% (assuming a constant percentage payout of free cash flows). #Corporate client of Peel Hunt Contact details

[coxsmn] 06/11/2017 20:39

Good analysis Mount T, thank you

[mount teide] 06/11/2017 19:33

Metal Pricing - Zinc, Lead and Copper pricing maintained their strong H2/2017 performance during October, resulting in a further lift in average prices for 2017.

Zinc
Averaged $0.95/lb in 2016
Averaging $1.28/lb to date in 2017 (34.7% up, from 33.6% up in early Oct)
Is currently trading at $1.49 (56.8% above the 2016 average and 16.4% above 2017 average)

Lead
Averaged $0.85/lb in 2016
Averaging $1.05/lb to date in 2017 (23.5% up, from 22.3% up in early Oct)
Is currently trading at $1.14 (34.7% above the 2016 average and 8.5% above 2017 average)

Copper
Averaged $2.20/lb in 2016
Averaging $2.76/lb to date in 2017 (25.4% up, from 25.1% up in early Oct)
Is currently trading at $3.15/lb(43.1% above the 2016 average and 14.1% above 2017 average)

EBITDA
2016 - CAML $39m + Lynx $30m = $69m
2017 - H/1 CAML $24m + Lynx $34m = £58m

All three metals to date in H2/2017 are continuing to average significantly higher prices than in H/1.

If 2017 Q4 forecast production is achieved then, barring a huge collapse in metal pricing over the next 7 weeks, 2017 EBITDA for CAML and Lynx combined may well top $120m - equivalent to a 74% increase in EBITDA over 2016 for the combined operation.


Data Source: Kitco and CAML 2017 Interims and Acquisition Presentation.

[thevaluehunter] 06/11/2017 15:26

I reckon the EV/EBITDA will be sub 5x which looks very decent given base metal prices are looking pretty strong.

[mount teide] 06/11/2017 13:49

Zinc and grow rich - IC article over the weekend

CAML gets a mention in the article - 'Until September, the mid-tier miner was primarily known for its unusual copper production in Kazakhstan, and perhaps secondarily known for its struggles to find another project that could replicate its wildly profitable, dividend-friendly principle asset. Then came an announcement that it had agreed to pay $403m, or more than its then-market capitalisation, for Lynx Resources, operator of the Sasa underground zinc-lead mine in Macedonia.

Explaining the pivot, Central Asia pointed to research from Wood Mackenzie, which suggests global zinc consumption is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent until 2035. Although some of that demand can be met by mine expansions or life extensions, the report predicts that the zinc industry could struggle to commission the rest of the mines needed to close the rest of the gap.

We originally tipped Central Asia Metals in August, before the miner had any zinc production to speak of. It still doesn’t (at least until it completes the purchase of Sasa), but the group’s investment discipline and long-term focus gives us confidence in its next chapter. Just as with its Kazakh copper mines, Sasa will be cheap to run: expected cash costs of 39¢ per pound of zinc puts it in the bottom third of the metal’s global cost curve. Lead production provides further earnings diversity. Crucially, the deal carries no exploration or start-up risks, which gives us renewed confidence that CAML will continue to pass on profits to shareholders through dividends.'

[rampair] 06/11/2017 08:52

One other major use of Copper will be in the rewiring of many houses to cope with the demand for charging cars, at the very least it means a decent amount will be used per
charger. As pointed out, an Electric car uses far more copper than a conventional
thermal engine.

R.

[mount teide] 04/11/2017 17:50

Copper: now a precious metal - Moneyweek 3 Nov 2017



'We usually think of gold and silver, and sometimes platinum and palladium, as precious metals: they are rare, or seen as alternative currencies, or both. But “increasingly, copper is a precious metal” too, says Alan Livsey in the Financial Times.

Copper is becoming scarce. The yield of copper from each unit of ore mined is dwindling. In 2010 the 15 top producers’ reserves boasted an average yield of 1.2%. By the end of 2016, the figure had fallen to 0.72%. Miners are therefore scrabbling to locate new supplies.

On the demand side, the latest fillip stems from the car industry. The electric Tesla Model S requires three times more copper wiring than an internal combustion engine, says Frank Holmes of US Global Investors on BusinessInsider.

More broadly, as the rapidly growing middle classes in emerging markets stock up on goods such as smartphones, cars, dishwashers and air conditioners, the world will need a lot more electricity – and copper is one of the most conductive metals. The deficit in the copper market may not dissipate in a hurry.'

[meanreverter] 04/11/2017 13:56

Arf Dysg: Only silver has (slightly) better conductivity than copper. Gold is next, with platinum a long way behind. See e.g. hxxps://www.thoughtco.com/table-of-electrical-resistivity-conductivity-608499

[ltinvestor] 04/11/2017 08:32

Rechargeable Zinc batteries will be cheaper, safer, lighter and more effective than Lithium ion.See Enzinc......

[coxsmn] 03/11/2017 16:41

I've recently added here, bit of a no brainer really.

[arf dysg] 03/11/2017 10:22

The few metals with greater conductivity than copper are some precious metals (gold, platinum, silver etc.) Copper can be shaped and formed easily, it's not particularly expensive, and it conducts electricity well. It also conducts heat well. This combination means that it has lots of uses. Consult the usual sources for more.

[ashehzi] 03/11/2017 09:05

"Copper: now a precious metal", is mentioned in Money week today, stating Electric Tesla Model S requires three times more copper wiring than an internal combustion engine. Also it says Copper is becoming scarce with yield of copper from each unit of ore mine is dwindling. Also mentions copper as one of the most conductive metals, used in lot more things these days than ever before.

[ntv] 02/11/2017 14:46

ANOTHER JUMP IN COPPER ON THE WAY?

[ntv] 01/11/2017 08:27

luckily living on the east side of the uk we have a little less cloud. still the picture is a little less cloudy now as we have a date of completion