Cenkos Securities Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 31/3/2017 12:37

QP - For someone who for some considerable time has taken a bearish stance towards Cenkos, you appear to be somehwat obsessed with posting here. Of course there's nothing wrong at all with having a bearish opinion but to continually stand there effectively shouting "this share is rubbish, this share is rubbish, i told you so, i told you so" seems rather strange if you have no economic interest in the company & have decided that it is a bad investment. Would you mind me asking what your motive is?

[speedsgh] 31/3/2017 12:24

By my estimation Cenkos are slightly behind Q1 2016 in terms of money raised for clients.

Q1 2016 - £274m (including GVC £150m placing re BWIN acquisition + IVO £100m placing)
Q1 2017 - c£237m via a larger number of small/medium size fundraisings (excludes £130m placing as part of proposed Eddie Stobart IPO which is scheduled to go ahead in April)

In Q2 2016 Cenkos raised £149m for clients so, assuming the Eddie Stobart IPO completes, they should hopefully outperform in Q2 this year.

[speedsgh] 31/3/2017 12:05

The following is an excerpt from Numis's trading update today. Worth bearing in mind that Numis are a higher quality business than Cenkos...

Trading Update -

"...Conversely, we have seen a paucity of primary equity issuance in the UK market as a whole and the increase in M&A activity has yet to fully benefit our top line. Whilst we are not immune to such conditions, the corporate side of our business has experienced higher transaction volumes in non-primary activity than the same period last year, reflecting the quality of our client base."

[spob] 31/3/2017 09:18

Sharelockholmes example page

[spob] 31/3/2017 09:15

another thing i look at is the trend in the number of shares in issue over a long time period

which hasn't changed significantly for cenkos over the last 12 years

52m to 57m

I avoid shares that repeatedly dilute their shareholders in a big way

[spob] 31/3/2017 09:06

This company has made profits every year for all the data i have

that's 12 years


paid dividends in 10 of those 12 years

cash flow negative in just one of those 12 years

[spob] 31/3/2017 09:02

well worth subscribing to Sharelockholmes





only £58 per year


data going back for 10 or 11 years

saves a lot of time

[speedsgh] 31/3/2017 08:33

No real surprises in the financials afaics. 2016 was the company's worst year for some time (my detailed records only go back as far as 2011).

REVENUE
2011: £37.4m
2012: £43.2m
2013: £51.4m
2014: £88.5m (AA IPO)
2015: £76.5m (BCA Marketplace IPO)
2016: £43.7m

PROFIT BEFORE TAX
2011: £5.1m
2012: £7.0m
2013: £10.7m
2014: £27.0m (AA IPO)
2015: £19.9m (BCA Marketplace IPO)
2016: £4.4m

PROFIT AFTER TAX
2011: £4.0m
2012: £8.5m
2013: £8.6m
2014: £21.3m (AA IPO)
2015: £15.3m (BCA Marketplace IPO)
2016: £2.5m

BASIC EPS ON CONTINUING OPERATIONS
2011: 5.6p
2012: 7.4p
2013: 14.2p
2014: 35.2p (AA IPO)
2015: 27.2p (BCA Marketplace IPO)
2016: 4.7p

FULL YEAR DIVIDEND PER SHARE
2011: 5.0p
2012: 7.5p
2013: 12.0p
2014: 17.0p (AA IPO)
2015: 14.0p (BCA Marketplace IPO)
2016: 6.0p

SIZE OF CORPORATE CLIENT BASE (as at 31 Dec)
2011: 111
2012: 119
2013: 125
2014: 130
2015: 124
2016: 116

[spob] 31/3/2017 08:27

Net current asset value

= Current assets minus TOTAL liabilities


For most companies that is negative

Cenkos are in a very strong financial position

[imranawan] 31/3/2017 08:23

spob - is that NTAV of £27m. Not heard of Ncav before

[topvest] 31/3/2017 08:11

Yes, results a little better than expected as was the dividend. Think they are recovering from a bad year. "Encouraging" is not a particularly strong word, but not too bad. They need some bigger deals.

[cwa1] 31/3/2017 07:56

As ever it's not all black or white. Clearly a large drop in revenues/profit/EPS is not to be desired. However a 6p dividend for the year, 5p final, is not to be sniffed at and VERY attractive IF it can be maintained-do I have my rose tinteds on thinking that that is possible given they have pretty much gone through an "annus horribilus"?

Also the comment:- . Since the start of this year we have been engaged in a number of fund raisings for clients and our current pipeline is encouraging." sounds fairly encouraging.

Need to go and have a proper look now.....

[spob] 31/3/2017 07:55

The drop in earnings this year was known and forecast

Actually they are ahead of those lowered forecasts

It's not really about this year anyhow

It's about the profits and dividends in the years to come

[garycook] 31/3/2017 07:52

Nice Dividend,So CNKS now back to yielding 6.5%,from 2.2%.The only way is up from here,with future earnings.

[keith95] 31/3/2017 07:46

.... revenue declines are turning round ... so a much better last 6 months ... and since markets look forwards not backwards ... resident boo boys likely to get burned if still short ....

... so happy days :)

[quepassa] 31/3/2017 07:21

QUOTE

Profit before tax fell by 78% to GBP4.4 million (2015: GBP19.9 million).


UNQUOTE.


'nuff said.


QP

[keith95] 31/3/2017 07:08

5p divi :)

[topvest] 30/3/2017 18:37

All small deals. Need a big one to move the dial.

[speedsgh] 30/3/2017 10:32

Good spot, CWA1. I see Cenkos helped them raise £8m in May 2016 &, if they don't get a waiver this time round from the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers to allow them to raise the proposed £5m (most of it is being placed with a major shareholder that will take their holding over 50%), Corero are likely to be in financial trouble. Unfortunately another low quality business that Cenkos are representing.

[cwa1] 30/3/2017 08:40

Every little helps:-