Celtic Share Discussion Threads

[Abuse team] 11/10/2006 23:20

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[mickinvest] 11/10/2006 23:09

8Para

Yip, it all seems to be.

had a lengthy chat with the Robert Howat, club secetary today and he seems more suprised than me at the current share price and how it has failed to react to CL football and being top of the league.

Also got a full breakdown of the share structure so I'll work it out and post it shortly.

Mick

[Abuse team] 11/10/2006 20:18

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[thwaiteuk] 11/10/2006 15:18

8para,

You may be right over the long term about a british league (although I'm not sure everyone wants it) but for now the trail seems to have gone cold and I can't see anything happening in the next 3-5 years.

Perhaps Celtic need to get into G14 group first and lobby from within on structural changes to the european domestic game.

Nice to see the buys going through.

[Abuse team] 11/10/2006 14:00

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[Abuse team] 11/10/2006 13:57

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[mickinvest] 11/10/2006 13:29

Not sure if our man at KBC is at lunch or not but we are back down to 1500 max to buy online after being at 37,500

currently

25.4p for 75,000 26.99 for 1500.

Mick

[Abuse team] 11/10/2006 10:11

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[mickinvest] 11/10/2006 09:28

Up she goes, KBC were offering 37,500 this morning at 25.99p and must have been cleared again.

Would be good to see SEYP try and leap WINS on the bid which would indicate a faster move up.

Mick

[thwaiteuk] 11/10/2006 08:36

I can't see the british league happening anytime soon. Even less so now the EPL TV contracts have been carved up with the outcome of generating even more money for the EPL clubs. Quinn and Lawwell seem resigned to life in the SPL with the proviso that Celtic MUST gain CL football every year to remain competitive.

What Lawwell is also saying is that Celtic should model themselves more on the dutch clubs with their ability to run succesful academies and youth development. They then sell on some of these players to the richer leagues in Europe and this helps them survive financially.

Lennoxtown is obviously part of this plan and should be open next year. Celtic already has the best youth system in Scotland and many of the players from the Tommy Burns youth era are now established first teamers - the likes of McGeady, Maloney, McManaus.

The big ask is whether Celtic can continue to find and develop genuine young talent who can maybe play for two or three years in the Celtic first team at CL level before being sold on for hopefully hefty fees which allow experienced players to be bought in. Meanwhile the exercise of bringing through more young players gets repeated.

If this works Celtic can live within their financial means given that they only get around £1.5m per season in domestic TV income.

A couple of years of managing the wage bill sensibly and perhaps a net cash inflow on transfer fees and we could see the debt completely paid off and Celtic operating with a profit after amortisation.

As a supporter though the priority is making sure we have sufficient quality on the park to win the SPL and compete well in the CL.

Just MO.

Btw 8Para, I think the rich iriah american scenario can only happen if Desmond decides to sell. It's not clear that he wants to do that and the share price would have to have an enormous run for him to get back his original investment with some profit.

[Abuse team] 10/10/2006 20:40

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[mickinvest] 10/10/2006 18:23

Interesting no delayed buys and would imagine bid will have to rise tomorrow to try and temp sellers and make a market as pointless having online limit of 1500 to buy and 75,000 to sell when there may be buyers around.

[hugepants] 10/10/2006 12:20

I worked this out roughly a few months ago. I think you should assume about 150M shares when convertibles are converted.
The thing with Celtic is there are a few possible scenarios that could re-rate the shares significantly in a stroke ie. an Abramovich type take-over, entry to the English premiership (unlikley near term) or a run to say semis of the Champions League (just about possible this year if they get lucky with the draw).

They also received the full Scottish cash entitlement for entry to the Champions League. This was worth an extra 2M but there was no rise in the share price to reflect this.

[Abuse team] 10/10/2006 10:02

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[Abuse team] 10/10/2006 09:56

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[thwaiteuk] 10/10/2006 09:47

Thanks, Mick. Even with the convertibles added in the market cap is very low. I'd be interested in you posting up any reply/comments from Lawwell.

It's disappointing that the buy limits are so low.

I guess the only other thing that may see a run on the price is if there are any hints in the financial strategy that moves towards a dividend for ordinary shareholders.

[hugepants] 10/10/2006 09:29

I bought at 30p and was looking to get in again at 20p. Dont think we'll see that now

[mickinvest] 10/10/2006 09:26

KBC move offer up to 26p and still only letting you buy 1500, fat lot of good that does :>(

[hugepants] 10/10/2006 08:51

Celtic should have Euro footie after Christmas. Cant see them finishing below Copenhagen and prob better than evens now to finish in the top 2 given Benfica losing at home to ManUre. So another 2M-5M in the kitty at least from post-Christmas euro footie.

[mickinvest] 10/10/2006 08:46

Just looking at level 2

SEYP moved from 23p-27p to 24.5p-28.5p at 8:15am

3 mm's now

WIN 24.5p KBC 25p
SEYP 24.5p WIN 28.5p
KBC 21p SEYP 28.5p

KBC still only letting you buy 1500 online and may give broker a call later to see if can get another 50k.

Mick

[mickinvest] 09/10/2006 16:11

thwateuk, still 1500 buy limit and KBC only MM on 25p and then its a jump to SEYP at 27p so I'm looking for them to move up tomorrow if they are unable to find a line of stock to sell.

Market Cap is a good bit higher with the convertible preference shares and currently trying to get answers from Lawell as to Celtic's full market Cap to decide how high to bid this.

Mick

[thwaiteuk] 09/10/2006 15:31

Mick, things like reducing the online buying limit seems to be yet another factor contributing to the share price being undervalued. Tightly held stock by Dermot Desmond and supporters who won't sell is now further restricted by a very low maximum online buy limit.

My reading is that the market cap is down to around £14/15m with the new share issue. A reasonable valuation of the club must be 10 times that figure.

[mickinvest] 09/10/2006 14:57

Online buying limit has been dropping steadily over the last couple weeks from 100k down to 7500 at lunchtime and now a measily 1500 !

Currently, buy 1500 max at 24.99 and sell 75000 at 24.6p.

Have bought couple lots of 50k over the last few weeks and was looking to add before AGM but not in 1500 lots.

Mick

[Abuse team] 04/9/2006 10:03

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[Abuse team] 01/9/2006 16:08

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