Cello Health Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 12/4/2010 21:15

Fair point Welsh.

A piece of the jigsaw that's missing. It would certainly provide the market with confidence. There may be some other explanation, such as a deal in progress or perhaps I'm too quick off the mark here ;-)

I'll update if I obtain any info.

As an aside, the Directors have put there hand in their pockets on the following occasions over the last couple of years....not significant amounts either.

03/04/09

Allan Rich (Chairman) 29,411 @ 34p
Mark Scott (Chief Executive) 10,000 @ 33p
Chris Outram (NED) 35,077 @ 34p

03/12/08

Mark Scott (Chief Executive) 10,000 @ 36.7p
Allan Rich (Chairman) 26,184 @ 38p

24/06/08

Kevin Steeds (Chairman) 1,500 @ 95p
Mark Scott (Chief Executive) 1,500 @ 91p

25/03/08

Allan Rich (NED) 10,000 @ 113p

19/03/08

Kevin Steeds (Chairman) 5,000 @ 113p
Mark Scott (Chief Executive) 5,000 @ 114p
Paul Hamilton (NED) 20,000 @113p

16/01/08

Kevin Steeds (Chairman) 4,000 @ 115p
Mark Scott (Chief Executive) 4,000 @ 116.5p
Chris Outram (NED) 12,711 @ 118p


Regards,
GHF

[welsheagle] 12/4/2010 20:09

Why aren't the Directors buying then.

[glasshalfull] 12/4/2010 18:02

Agree london calling. More importantly was confirmation that they had experienced a stronger Q4 and "good start" to 2010.

Arbuthnot have a 46p price target and buy recommendation.

They are on a PER of 4 for the current year with any B/S (earnout) concerns now firmly behind them, £4.3m of costs stripped out and announcment of increased D/V with yield of 4.5% .I also see them as a tasty morsel for a few peers given that they are no.6 UK research company and Tangible the no.6 UK direct marketing company with blue chip client base.

I may have some time this week to finish my write-up and will post a link here.

Regards,
GHF

[london calling] 12/4/2010 16:50

This is beginning to look very attractive. I always like to buy at the bottom or near to it if possible. I thought the results were good, so the pull back gives a nice opportunity for entry.

[diku] 01/4/2010 13:18

stegrego...hurry up!...EJ still to come...

[grahamite2] 01/4/2010 13:15

Thanks GHF. My research is more than somewhat out of date now.

[stegrego] 01/4/2010 13:12

Been looking at this for a while, but no spare funds currently.

Dont tell too many about it till im in please GHF ;)

[diku] 01/4/2010 12:45

Where is Edmond Jackson?...

[glasshalfull] 01/4/2010 12:40

Well I disagree GCI :-)

I've been nibbling away and have bought a few CLL since results which I expect to represent the nadir of the share price underperformance.
I had researched and was a holder of CLL back in 2006 and discovered that I still had a few (dormant account), so only recently got up to speed on developments since. My interest was rekindled having carried out comprehensive research on Adventis (ATG) a marketing services company - see link below - and I noticed that both ATG and CLL had failed to enjoy the shareprice recovery that many of their peers had.



I've started a write-up on CLL and will post when complete.

Regards
GHF

[diku] 22/3/2010 10:05

Yes buyers back on the Plus and Main markets..This could become a takeover target..

[grahamite2] 22/3/2010 10:04

Good man, best of luck.

[dd776] 22/3/2010 10:03

Agree with Ima..... and have bought in today

[imabastard] 17/3/2010 18:42

Graham .... it's also paying a 1.3p Dividend , 0.8p in June for half year, (if I read it correctly), which is around 4% interest on the current price .... twice/thrice as good as having your money in the banks.

.... mind you, you can get 7% interest in Iraq .... but that's another story entirely.

[grahamite2] 17/3/2010 16:33

I was positive at over £1 and frankly have had a lucky escape!

But I certainly like it for a realistic chance of doubling your money or better with very acceptable risk.

[diku] 17/3/2010 15:04

If only you would think a bit more positive about the company..

[engineer66] 17/3/2010 14:13

Technicals look very positive.

[grahamite2] 16/3/2010 16:23

Now that is interesting.

Never mind the fundamentals, if the charting boys like the look of it, it could move up very swiftly indeed.

[imabastard] 16/3/2010 16:21

Double Bottom formation emerging on the three year chart with today witnessing ten times the average daily volume.

[engineer66] 16/3/2010 15:48

Tks Coopstock for the comments which I will look into. I own CLL but not a lot. Sector seems really battered I watch HNT and they have moved up a touch. I wonder what will drive the market forward, downturn so people cutting back on consultancy: so maybe this is highly geared play on recovery, unless everthing has gone digital and companies are taking their work in house or the market isn't there. I thought with the Olympic's there would be some brigher outlook that may be sustained with a recovery. A concern is the marketing business is all intangibles and share price value can easily be destroyed if sales remain depressed and investment outflows persist.

[coopstock] 16/3/2010 15:23

Engineer66 - The big issue is Tangible Financial which lost about 25% of billings last year due to its reliance on financials who were murdered in the slump. It's a good business and no reason why they shouldn't turn it round. SMT is a good company, but will suffer from cutting of budgets for government work. Oomph and TMI are micky mouse - can't see how they can drag Cello down for long. On the plus side several of the consulting companies which were struggling at the start of last year, had big H2s and ended up earning final consideration payouts that as late as last summer Cello weren't expecting to face. In one sense that's a hit to these figures - in another it shows these are robust businesses and it's no wonder Scott can claim that 2010 has got off with bang.
As for comparable shares. I like to watch Chime and Creston, since both have similar spread of businesses, expertise and are regularly mooted as possible predators or merger prospects in the future. Both have stormed away from lows along with the main index - while Cello has yet to see recovery. Both are on far higher P/Es - and I'd expect to see Cello move off its current 4-5 soon. But then I own quite a bit of this stuff - so I need it to.

[engineer66] 16/3/2010 14:46

Coopstock - I hade a look at the figures. There is a very large cash outflow from investing activities "deferred consideration for subsidiary undertakings" and also a huge impairment of goodwill on the income statement, so it seems to me some of their acqusitions have gone badly wrong with a low return on capital. They may be paying out these deferred considerations for years before they actually can increase the cash retained in the business.

The question to me is whether they can turn some of the non performing subsidiaries around or whether the market is going to be permanently flat? I dont know about comparable companies to CLL but TWE is also in the doldrums while STF is moving ahead faster. Does this say something about the market and whether CLL is corectly positioned. Views appreciated.

[coopstock] 16/3/2010 11:15

Of course it would help if Scott and some of the other directors started buying this stock themselves. But the news about expansion is welcome - this share price has always done best when they're on the acquisition trail.
Have always thought the market makers got this one wrong. Downward slide has been led by relatively small share sales. Larger holders have shown faith - as in Octopus investment in January - while most smaller shareholders actually work for Cello, have faith in the upside of the business - or at least have faith that the true value of the stock is 100p plus - and are happy enough to hold on.

[someuwin] 16/3/2010 10:59

"Top clients during the year included GSK, Novartis, HP, Tesco, EA Games and Nokia. All these clients are long standing and reflect the first class blue chip nature of the Group's client base.
Significant new client wins in 2009 include; Sandoz, Mundipharma, Bupa, Kraft, Kimberly Clark, L'Oreal, Boden, HP, Cadburys, Coors, Nestle, Eurostar, Tesco Bank, Swiss Re and Bayer."

[someuwin] 16/3/2010 10:42

Mark Scott, Chief Executive, commented:

"2009 was a demanding year. However, a combination of our very tight cost
control and a better final six months for our Research and Consulting business
gives us the confidence to increase our dividend.

"We are leaner, more focused, with real strength in our core Research and
Consulting activities - as demonstrated by the improvement in both the domestic
and international positioning of our research business. Long standing client
relationships remain robust and gearing has been materially reduced. This puts
us in a strong position to expand again."