Cello Health Share Discussion Threads

[shrout] 17/5/2011 19:28

I've got a few of these, so good to hear some of the more positive comments coming out of the AGM...

not sure how much notice people here take of TA, but just wanted to point out that the uptrend which has been in place since early 2010 is still intact despite recent falls, and the share price is still some way above the support level which became evident in the second half of 2010.

[santangello] 17/5/2011 16:36

Much appreciated GHF, thanks for the update....and thanks for the good wishes.

Incredible to read that last pragraph........breathtakingly surprising info.

All sounds good to me, I have faith in the company and am investing for the long term. The acquisitions are earnings enhancing, and the migration from Public Services demonstrates the acumen of the board.

Cheers.

[coopstock] 17/5/2011 13:14

Looks like the UK research market went very soft in April. Everyone hoping this was just clients taking long holidays around the Royal Wedding/bank holidays and looking for a big rebound in May, but there's no doubt that some of the Cello businesses have had a poor start to the year in the UK. Cello have had experience of this in the past, so will be hopeful of making it back in second half. Suggest those attending the AGM pay close attention to any vibes on current trading.

[santangello] 17/5/2011 11:26

dd/all AGM atendees,

Our second babba is still not here, but due any hour now, so unfortunately I cannot make the AGM.

I (and I am sure others too) would be grateful if any feedback from the same could be posted.

I thought the statement was truthful, fair and about right. The organic growth and acquisition stratergy sounds to be working VERY well, and should continue in that vain.

Personally, I cannot see the PIs reasoning for selling this am? It is their decision, but I guess the AGM should define my strong hold/add stance at present.

Cheers.

[qs9] 17/5/2011 07:15

Not a bad statement from CLL, neutral to some degree, good growth interntationally, believe on track to meet FYE and is on un demanding rating IMo. May see some upside, lets see.

[santangello] 16/5/2011 09:09

Octupus incresing their stake from 9% to 10%.....

Nice timing from the fund managers, with the events of tommorrow to unfold.........

[mcamikeb] 12/5/2011 13:05

Sorry to crash this board, but thought you'd be interested in taking a look at an overlooked Media stock that seems to be breaking new boundaries in the industry, but still undervalued – mainly due to lack of liquidity.

The company is Red Hot Media International (AIM: RHM) and operates in Malaysia and China, where advertising / marketing spending is still high and GDP growth is strong (conservative 2010-12 between 6 - 8.4%).

The business plan looks compelling – provides traditional advertising services for many of the Blue Chips in the region (Porsche, Singer, BenQ, LG, Hyundai), plus it has added a unique reseller / distribution network, to augment advertising revenue with product sales revenue, ie; it sells those products it advertises (does anyone do this over here?). It focuses on electricals, white goods and financial services.

Currently looks cheap (against Asian peer group which carries higher valuations than the UK due to continued strong growth of economy and rise of new "consumer class") and PE is falling to 11x in 2011 (from 15.5x). Strong RNS last week saw it renew multiple advertising budgets with Porsche, Singer and others.

Importantly, it is adding a new interactive social media arm this year, to support its outside advertising division, which could add substantially to the bottom line, due to high acceptance of mobile social media in home markets.

Daniel Stewart is the broker which initiated in October at 103p price target (currently at 72.5p). Expect 2010 final results at the end of May and should be on forecast, as follows (approx RM5 to £1)


2009A 2010E 2011E
Sales (RM) 26.2 36.0 50.4
PBT (RM) 4.7 10.6 15.7
EPS (p) 2.5 5.2 7.2
P/E 32.4x 15.5x 11x

If you can find any stock, definitely worth a punt (IMHO).

[coopstock] 12/5/2011 13:02

D'oh. Thanks for clarification GHF.

[santangello] 11/5/2011 23:38

Nice posts GHF, as ever, and you are correct....all is there to read.

No sign of our iminent baby yet, so I am on stanby, making attendance at the AGM unlikely, but you never know!!!!

Cheers.

[glasshalfull] 11/5/2011 23:00

Worthwhile also noting Chime Communications (CHW) IMS statement today.



"The Group's track record of growth has continued into the first four months of 2011, with good organic growth and growth from acquisitions. We expect strong organic growth in operating income in 2011 and expect to be slightly ahead of market expectations."

Given that CHW are a peer of CLL then I would imagine that the positive impact of their statement may have alerted a few investors to the value over here.

A possible reason for the tick-up in CLL?

Regards,
GHF

[glasshalfull] 11/5/2011 22:54

Don't know why you're worried chaps. Surprised as it's all in the Final Result announcement and Annual Report that I'd assume you'd both have looked through.



In April 2010, £2.2m of earn out liabilities were settled. These were settled by £1.3m in cash and loan notes, and £0.9m in shares issued at an average issue price of 32.8p per share. Following a detailed review of further liabilities, expected 2011 earn out commitments have returned to levels estimated prior to the recession, reflecting recovery in underlying performance.

Earn out commitments now stand at £7.3m at 31 December 2010. Of this, approximately £5.3m will fall payable in April 2011. The minimum cash or loan note element of this 2011 payment is £2.4m. Shares issued under these arrangements will be subject to contractual trading lock-ins for up to three years after their issue. The Board retains discretion to pay a larger proportion of this in the form of loan notes or cash.

The remaining earn out obligations payable after April 2011 are capped at £2.4m.

also

Headline basic earnings per share rose to 7.67p (2009: 7.56p) and headline fully diluted earnings per share rose to 6.40p (2009: 6.09p). Fully diluted earnings per share reflects the impact of the anticipated future issuance of shares to vendors of companies acquired by the Group under earn out arrangements.

Therefore, 5,744,670 shares issued per today's announcement (say mid 50.5p) = £2.9m + £2.4m cash element noted above. This equates to the £5.3m earnout flagged above which has been included in all forecasts and known to the market....hence no impact. There are trading lock-ins for up to 3 years so further incentive for the management/ employees to deliver.

Hope this assists.

Regards,
GHF

[santangello] 11/5/2011 10:10

.....and now a tick up on the bid too..........confused (but smiling?)

[coopstock] 11/5/2011 09:55

Also confused - and a bit concerned by that level of dilution. Didn't realise there were more buyout obligations to settle. Will be interested to hear any trading update from AGM.

[santangello] 11/5/2011 08:25

Ok, I am confused.............?

RNS tells us more shares in issue from 16 May, meaning a diluting of the share price on that day.

Why are the MMs marking these up every few days on the offer only, with no buys....only sells.

....am I missing something here?

[owenski] 06/5/2011 22:12

I would guess they dont want to encourage buyers, large order being prepped??

[santangello] 06/5/2011 14:29

....the tick up was only on the offer....but even so, i am confused as to the MM tactic.

No buys showing on L2.

[davidosh] 06/5/2011 13:17

The Group also announces that the Company's Annual General Meeting will be held on Tuesday 17 May, 2011 at 12.30pm at the Group's offices, 11-13 Charterhouse Buildings, London, EC1M 7AP.

Any more from here coming to the AGM ? I will keep a running list...

Elwyn (TMF)
davidosh
GHF
devymaster (TMF)
Kramch
Myrtle100 (TMF)
MG1982

It is the morning after the next Mello dinner so some of the guys staying over may attend too. Any more from here ?

[coopstock] 06/5/2011 13:12

Almost certainly one of the owners of the bought companies releasing their holdings (several of these starting to move on from the group).
Still, not sure how the MMs can justify that uptick on the back of such a big sell at 49.38.

[santangello] 06/5/2011 12:58

Possibly a seller cleared today?

I would expect some kind of buying leading up to the AGM?

[mg1982] 02/5/2011 12:46

David I will try coming to. I would encourage the Mello crowd to as you do have some savvy investors over there

[davidosh] 02/5/2011 10:16

The Group also announces that the Company's Annual General Meeting will be held on Tuesday 17 May, 2011 at 12.30pm at the Group's offices, 11-13 Charterhouse Buildings, London, EC1M 7AP.

Any more from here coming to the AGM ? I will keep a running list...

Elwyn (TMF)
davidosh
GHF
devymaster (TMF)
Kramch
Myrtle100 (TMF)

It is the morning after the next Mello dinner so some of the guys staying over may attend too. I am in a tennis tournament from 11am so unlikely to be able to post in detail until late tonight but will try to post on TMF to attract a few more.

[kramch] 02/5/2011 10:06

DD count me in for the AGM.
(Never-ending surprises finding out who your fellow shareholders are!). K

[santangello] 29/4/2011 07:10

'Buying on the dip'........me too GHF, a great opportunity presented itself.

With the volumes, and even allowing for the stock the MMs possibly had in their laps, I would have expected a slightly more positive reaction from the s/p.

[glasshalfull] 29/4/2011 00:07

Thanks for update davidosh. Delighted to attend both events.

I've been buying the dip here and adding to my core holding. This after switching a few into CRE as I'd previously documented. Both look excellent value given their focus on growing their respective healthcare offerings abroad, especially given the buoyant margins the sector commands.

Regards
GHF