Cello Health Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 22/4/2010 14:22

Any news out there?...I mean bid news!!..

[coopstock] 22/4/2010 11:41

Go, go, go - hope it's not another false dawn...

[empirestate] 22/4/2010 11:24

looks like we are in business

[empirestate] 22/4/2010 10:43

interesting move on the ask, could be time

[glasshalfull] 20/4/2010 17:30

Interesting to read Crestons (CRE) pre-close trading update today, and fairly bullish it was.



Although one cannot draw a direct comparison, both businesses are comparable in many respects and suffered with earnout worries and debt considerations.
Both are clearly over the worst.....but only one share price has responded.

I'm not sure if I'll be able to reproduce Crestons 2-year chart (haven't tried before - appreciate assistance if it doesn't work) but failing that take a look at the thread below & divergence in comparison to CLL's




and




Regards,
GHF



EDIT - Charts didn't paste directly. If you click on both links the respective 2-year charts for each open in another window.
What a difference in the last 18 months. !

[lpf] 20/4/2010 09:41

Yes, I understood your point. Did you understand mine? If the price goes down, that means that the sell pressure is greater than the buy pressure. If there are lots of sales, then once the buyer at 30p is filled, then price will drop until a buyer appears.

[coopstock] 20/4/2010 08:53

LPF - my point was about price. A whole bunch of solid trades at 30p, just one at 28.6p, yet the MM's take the price down, giving an impression of downward momentum just when this share price needs all the help it can get. And this has been a pattern for several weeks now.

[lpf] 20/4/2010 07:54

diku - in the likely event of a Tory landslide, central govt spending will get slashed, and that will hurt Cello badly - they do quite a bit of public-sector work, and that's partly why they've been marked down so much in the last 2 years.

Coopstock trade-watching is a mug's game - "buy" or "sell" labels on a trade are automated guesses from advfn, they have no objective meaning or significance, or use. There's only one meaningful indicator of buy and sell pressure. And that's the price.

[glasshalfull] 19/4/2010 23:46

Thanks EssentialInvestor. Appreciate the update.
I'm happy to accumulate down here.

Simon Gordon - Enthused that you also see value.

I was distracted at the weekend with several other stocks taking precedence, but will get round to completing CLL write-up in due course. I did spend some time looking through the various company web sites though to get a better appreciation of the entire company. While since I've looked at CLL's locker. Quite a comprehensive offering across a multitude of sectors which was v impressive.
Still think it offers excellent value at the current price as market looks to have improved over the last few months. The May T/S will hopefully confirm.

Would still love to see some Director Buys.

Pleased to receive a copy of the Annual Report today. Don't receive many hard copies these days.

Regards,
GHF

[empirestate] 19/4/2010 22:31

glasshf, todays trade action was clear evidence of a sale order needing to be filled with the mkt drifting to deter further selling after the 35k went through and no share price impression made when late buyers come in. better sit back and wait until the share price looks like 29bid 30 ask which should then be the buy indicator and the signal that the seller is almost done here.

[simon gordon] 19/4/2010 19:45

Edison - 16/3/10:

Investment summary: Tuning up

With a steadier underlying research market and the peak of earn-out payments now passed, 2009 should prove the nadir of Cello's fortunes. Renegotiation of bank debt out to 2013, on terms less extortionate than many, means that outstanding earnouts look much less of a burden. The key now is to scale up the group's offer in the US to meet the aspirations of becoming a truly global player, particularly building on the pharma vertical. The rating indicates that the market remains sceptical.

Emphasis firmly on research

Cello's emphasis is now firmly on research, with much of the planning-led marketing business (Tangible) now consulting or administering online communities, rather than its previous direct marketing focus. Big contracts have been renewed, but pricing is a perennial issue, particularly with the large research 'factories' under pressure. This is accelerating the shift to qualitative research and richer insight from communities. Both factors favour the smaller, flexible suppliers that can move more towards a consultancy model and not have to justify substantial overheads. Destabilisation in the industry is enlarging the talent pool available to more entrepreneurial suppliers.

Stepping up in the US

Cello has around 30 people in the US, around half supporting large pharma clients. This operation is subscale, but rapid growth may: 1) put management resource under pressure and 2) feel too risky given the group's recent record. Slow build, though, may involve missing attractive opportunities.

Forecasts predicated on cost savings, not recovery

Preliminary figures included £1.9m of exceptional costs and a £7.8m impairment of goodwill and intangibles. Annualised savings in staff costs are £4.5m and there are likely to be another £0.5m of property savings up to 2011. Year-end net debt was £11.5m but anticipated future earn-outs are down to £6.1m, a manageable level. Forecasts are currently building in the savings, but little growth. The multiple indicates that the market is not yet giving the company the benefit of the doubt.

[diku] 19/4/2010 17:14

If we do get a new Government would Cello Research benefit?...or don't they get involved in the Political side of business?...

[diku] 19/4/2010 17:12

Coop...yes very frustrating...much more action today than last 3 weeks...

[simon gordon] 19/4/2010 17:10

The UK economy is picking up, ad spend is increasing but these are near an all time low.

I've bought in. Don't know when its going to start rising but don't see too much downside with plenty of upside.

Good little growth & income investment.

[stegrego] 19/4/2010 16:58

Perhaps PLUS trades - ticker CLL.GB or maybe some delayed sells?

[coopstock] 19/4/2010 16:55

Can someone explain these market-makers to me. Two thirds of all trades today have been buys at 30p. One sale at 28.6. So they mark it down by 0.25p, creating an impression of downward momentum. This has been happening for a while. What's going on?

[empirestate] 17/4/2010 10:38

Glasshf
would have imagined that the NMS on this one is relatively low considering the spreads that are kept are quite wide, unless it is created by a small number of market makers. looks like the mkt is happy to sell in reasonable size, more shares than i would have anticipated but think purely to fill the sale orders that they have. will keep a track of the trades and look through the shareholders to see if there are any near a reporting threshold and double check the recent changes in holdings over the last three months.

[glasshalfull] 17/4/2010 09:47

AGM statement a month away - 17th May.

Regards,
GHF

[glasshalfull] 17/4/2010 09:46

Thanks empirestate.
I'm not too sure that there is a seller. Looks to me like Cello is bumping along the bottom and at present little demand or appetite for the shares. Welcome any updates that you can provide.

Coopstock - I've contacted the company and mentioned this fact. I also thought they'd have been loading up at this low level given that trading conditions were improving. It would certainly provide the market with the impetus to buy in.

Regards,
GHF

[coopstock] 17/4/2010 00:26

GHF. Still that basic difference with ATG. Their directors are buying. Can't work out why the CLL boys aren't doing the same.

[empirestate] 16/4/2010 23:59

just looked at the books, so net NAV being a deficit of gbp15m for which operating profits could cover at best in two years and a topline p/e working of say around 3/4 based on current value looks pretty tempting imo.there is alot worse around valued at considerably higher. better find out who the seller is first and try to calculate how much there is to go.

[empirestate] 16/4/2010 23:39

just been through the trades for the past 3 weeks and unfortunately there appears to some weight on the share price from a seller whos full order will have to be taken out before we see this one do a coiled spring job. on the back of this it is an ideal time to get in as long as pi's don't get bored of waiting for some action as this would obviously only add to the pressure. anyone got a list of shareholders and their stake %. that last 50k trade was interesting though as it appeared to push the bid a smidge, but it could be a false dawn by the mkt to encourage a few more buyers to fill a pending order. when the spread tightens on the bid to say 0.5 of a penny it would probably be a decent bet that the seller is finishing. hope this helps as this is what i will be watching for

[empirestate] 16/4/2010 23:26

glasshalfull, i too initially had the same impression about a company like ATG, however, i then started to read the balance sheets slightly differently when making an assumption as to the value. over the past year also i found it increasingly important to consider the value of goodwill and intangibles carried on the books. in the case of ATG whilst the p/e is low for the sector, the co is profitable and u would expect at the outset the mcap to be say 30-40% higher, if you net the dead assets/non cash assets off against the NAV they actually have a deficit shareholder value position. i like the look of CLL and remember being quite impressed by the results. will have a look at the numbers and decide and outlook and decide on whether to take a position.

[diku] 16/4/2010 18:30

Those trades are all clustered together within half hour time frame..wonder if some positive news has leaked to those in the know?..this could be a good bid target..

[glasshalfull] 16/4/2010 16:41

Nice to see a tick up, albeit small.

The Annual Report was published yesterday and available via the Cello web-site.
Interesting to see the company in the process of adopting a joint ownership share plan as follows:-

"The Board are in the process of finalising a Joint
Ownership Share Plan 2010 ("JOSP") under which it
is intended that awards will be made to the Group's
most senior employees, including main board
executive directors.

Under the terms of the JOSP participants will acquire
a beneficial interest as joint owner in a number
of Cello shares ("the JOSP award shares") for a
consideration of 0.1 pence per share. The beneficial
interest in the JOSP award shares will be held jointly
by the participant and an employee benefit trust in
the proportions 0.01% : 99.99%. Participants will, if
and to the extent that performance conditions are
met, derive 99.99% of the growth over the three
years following the date of the award in the value
of the JOSP award shares plus 0.01% of the initial
value of the JOSP award shares, less a fixed carrying
cost of 2.5% per annum.

The maximum individual annual award under the
JOSP will be interests in shares whose market value is
twice the participant's basic annual salary.
The JOSP performance measure will be Total
Shareholder Return ("TSR") relative to a comparator
group of the company's peers over the three years
following the date of the award. The proportion of
JOSP awards which participants will be entitled to
retain on vesting in will depend upon Cello's TSR
performance relative to the comparator companies....."


Regards,
GHF