Catco Reinsurance Opport... Share Discussion Threads

[calleva] 09/11/2004 15:10

Ooops!

LONDON (AFX) - Cambridge Antibody Technology PLC said that preliminary
results from the first pivotal trial on Trabio show it has failed the primary
endpoint of improving the outcome of surgery for glaucoma compared to placebo.
The trial, which started in February 2002, was carried out in 344 patients
in six European countries.
The company added that the preliminary analysis does not support the filing
of a Biologics Licence Application (BLA) in 2005, but said that data from a
second pivotal clinical trial of Trabio are expected in early 2005.
CAT said it will provide further information alongside its results on Nov
22, 2004.
Trabio is a fully human monoclonal antibody that neutralises Transforming
Growth Factor Beta 2 (TGFbeta2) -- a protein produced in response to injury in
the eye and believed to be responsible for the formulation of excessive scar
tissue, which is the main reason for failure of glaucoma surgery.
Trabio has been developed by CAT as a potential treatment for improving
outcomes in glaucoma filtration surgery.
Glaucoma is a sight-threatening eye condition where the optic nerve becomes
damaged, usually due to an increased pressure of fluid within the eye.
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[the_doctor] 05/11/2004 12:57

Seems reasonable matthu

[matthu] 05/11/2004 10:31

One of the factors you need to take into account is other products which are affected by the same terms. Not only humira is affected.

Six months ago I calculated the value of winning the outstanding court case as follows:



Not much has changed since then.

[the_doctor] 05/11/2004 10:17

matthu
How is £4.60 clearly an underestimate?
It gives £180m @ 40 million shares

For $1.5bn 2005 sales on humira,
at 1.2% royalties, this apparently gives £75m value to CAT (NPV discounted)
Thats £63m per % royalties
£180m is therefore an extra 3% on royalties = royalties of 4.2%

[matthu] 03/11/2004 18:54

If anybody needs to be reminded what the court case is all about, here is an article from 2003 worth reading again:

[matthu] 02/11/2004 09:36

That seems to suggest that the value of winning the court case is only £4.60 - this is clearly an underestimate.

[pres1] 02/11/2004 09:17

Article on CAT in Investors Chronicle last week. Consensus seems to be - win court case = £9. Lose court case price = £4.40. Take your pick!

[matthu] 01/11/2004 22:50

As Lord Hoffmann said [in the hepatitis B case referred to below] "...care is needed not to stifle further research and healthy competition ...".

[pres1] 28/10/2004 18:05

Throughout the day buys are ahead of sales, so the price goes??... down. Good logic there then!

[pres1] 28/10/2004 18:02

matthu
i saw that post - thanks for reminding me.
pres

[matthu] 27/10/2004 22:11

Pres1 - if CAT wins the court case, there will be considerable further upside.

Six months ago I calculated the value of winning the outstanding court case as follows:



"total NPV of sales on which CAT stands to earn a royalty from Abbott = $ 14.3 b, and the estimated value of winning the royalty dispute = 3% of $ 14.3 b, or $ 429 m = £ 233 m at an exchange rate of 1.84.

As there are 38.4 m issued shares, this equates to £6.07 a share."

This does not include any value at all for the remainder of CAT's business.

[pres1] 27/10/2004 20:45

OK, just checking.

[graemereid] 27/10/2004 16:59

correct - it is not

[pres1] 27/10/2004 15:51

That wouldn't by any chance be the Graham Reid as in Mannin, would it?!

[graemereid] 27/10/2004 11:09

Have you heard any news or rumours on the court case that would justify the rise over the past two days? I'm hanging on for now - could be some way to climb yet.

[pres1] 27/10/2004 11:00

What do we do Matthu?! We must both be sitting on a nice profit now. Is this going to run further, or are we going to have the daft situation where the settlement/court case goes in their favour and then the shares go down (I've seen it elsewhere!). I think these might be good for another £1 - then I'd be really tempted to take profit, if not sell all.
What do you think?

[matthu] 27/10/2004 09:05

10% increase in price over the past couple of days ...

[matthu] 20/10/2004 06:34

Promising Phase III Psoriatic Arthritis Data for Humira® (Adalimumab)
19 Oct 2004

New Phase III study findings show that patients with active psoriatic arthritis who had failed a previous non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) therapy achieved significant improvement in both joint and skin signs and symptoms after treatment with Abbott's HUMIRA®. The study, presented this week at the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) annual meeting, found that patients experienced sustained response with HUMIRA therapy beyond the 12-week primary endpoint. At the 24-week follow-up, nearly one-fourth of patients achieved a 70 percent improvement in arthritis signs and symptoms, and 42 percent of patients achieved at least a 90 percent reduction in psoriasis activity.

Patients in the trial experienced marked improvement in both arthritis and psoriasis response as early as two weeks after initiation of therapy and patient response was sustained through 24 weeks. These results were statistically significant.

"Psoriatic arthritis takes an enormous toll on patients' quality of life," said Philip Mease, M.D., lead study investigator of Swedish Medical Center and University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle. "In this study, patients on HUMIRA achieved rapid improvement in arthritis symptoms as well as quality of life and function. Even more encouraging, they also displayed significant improvement in skin symptoms."

Psoriatic arthritis is an autoimmune disorder that combines symptoms of psoriasis, such as dry, scaly skin and patches of red, raised skin known as plaques, with arthritis symptoms including joint pain and inflammation. Common symptoms of psoriatic arthritis include varying degrees of psoriasis activity along with stiffness, pain, swelling and tenderness of the joints that can lead to a reduced range of motion and potential severe joint destruction.

Study Overview

This placebo-controlled, double-blind study assessed the efficacy and tolerability of HUMIRA in 313 adults with active psoriatic arthritis (defined as three or more swollen joints and three or more tender joints) who had failed therapy with NSAIDs. Patients received 40 mg of HUMIRA or placebo administered subcutaneously every other week. Efficacy was assessed using ACR20 response (20 percent improvement in tender and swollen joint count and other clinical measures), one of the primary study endpoints.

Secondary endpoints included ACR50/70, Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) (which measures the extent and severity of psoriasis) measurement in patients with more than three percent body surface area involvement and other clinical assessments.

Arthritis Response

In the HUMIRA treatment group, improvement in arthritis signs and symptoms was rapid, with 27 percent of patients achieving an ACR20 response after two weeks and 52 percent of patients achieving an ACR20 response after just four weeks, compared with six percent and nine percent for patients taking placebo. At 24 weeks, 39 percent of patients treated with HUMIRA achieved an ACR50 response and 23 percent achieved ACR70, compared to six percent and one percent, respectively, in the placebo group.

Psoriasis Response

In patients with more than three percent body surface area involvement, 42 percent of patients taking HUMIRA achieved a PASI 90 response at 24 weeks, which reflects at least 90 percent improvement in psoriasis symptoms assessed by the PASI. Nearly one-third (30 percent) achieved 90 percent improvement at the week 12 visit. At 24 weeks, 59 percent of patients in the HUMIRA arm achieved a PASI 75 response (75 percent improvement), compared with one percent of patients taking placebo.

"These results are important for both rheumatologists and dermatologists, but more importantly the patients who suffer from both the joint and skin symptoms of psoriatic arthritis," said Jeffrey Leiden, M.D., Ph.D., president and chief operating officer, Pharmaceutical Products Group, and chief scientific officer, Abbott. "The promising results of this trial reinforce our plan to submit applications to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) by the end of the year to request approval for this new use."

The rates of adverse events and serious adverse events were comparable between HUMIRA and the placebo. Among patients taking HUMIRA, the most common adverse events (those affecting at least five percent of patients) were upper respiratory infection, nasopharyngitis, injection site reaction, headache and hypertension. The safety profile of HUMIRA in the psoriatic arthritis population was similar to that observed in the rheumatoid arthritis population.

About Psoriatic Arthritis

Left untreated, psoriatic arthritis can be a progressively disabling disease. The arthritic manifestations often include debilitating disease of the hands and feet, as seen in rheumatoid arthritis, as well as tendonitis and arthritis of the spine. Psoriatic arthritis affects between 10 and 30 percent of the 4.5 million Americans who have psoriasis, a non-contagious, chronic skin disease characterized by red plaques covered with silvery scales. Most people with psoriatic arthritis first developed psoriasis.

[matthu] 09/10/2004 06:33

from The Telegraph
Johnson drug hit by blood cancer fears
By Rosie Murray-West (Filed: 09/10/2004)

US drug giant Johnson & Johnson added to concerns over drug safety yesterday by announcing that its arthritis drug Remicade would have its labelling revised to reflect a higher risk of blood cancer for patients.

The move follows thewithdrawal of Merck's arthritis drug Vioxx last week because of fears that it could increase the incidence of heart attacks.

The two drugs are not related.

Remicade is part of a drug class called tumour necrosis factor blockers, or TNF-blockers, which also include Amgen's Enbrel, and Abbott Laboratories' Humira, which was developed with UK biotechnology company Cambridge Antibody Technologies.

[matthu] 08/10/2004 22:56

NEW YORK, October 8 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Canaccord Capital downgrade Cambridge Antibody Technology (CAT.ISE) from "buy" to "hold." The target price is set to £6.74.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the downgrade in rating is based on valuation. Cambridge Antibody Technology's stock has appreciated by 28% in the last two months and 18% in the last week, the analysts elaborate. The risks associated with Cambridge Antibody Technology's legal dispute with Abbott regarding Humira are fully reflected in the former's current stock valuation, according to Canaccord Capital.