Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 26/4/2025 08:28:22

The sale completion will hike the price but we will get inevitable selling/profit taking that will blunt any substantial rise but there is material news to follow on various fronts, hopefully in short order. The licences are key as they allow resumption of testing on well 803 on BNG which was flowing at 500 bopd. They plan to do another side-track at A5 on Airshagyl .Also Akkaduk testing on B8 which if successful will catapult the share price West Shalva will spud soon so hopefully we will see the return to operational activity which will inject done interest from investors.The corp activity on BNG from ME investment may materialise, acquisitions as communicated and who knows, the barge may get a project !!At some juncture, something's got to give .

[the new norm] 25/4/2025 11:53:32

Max

Casp sentiment is at a very low point in the investor confidence cycle due to extremely poor engagement with private shareholders and non delivery of past promises.

Too many false dawns from this outfit leaves the market very skeptical and cynical about the sun ever rising again for casp

Just remember the darkest hour is the one just before sunrise or in CASPs case the RNS which confirms the shallows sale has completed, cash in bank and the various pending licences have been granted

At that point the share price will reach for the stars

Tricky part is capturing any of that rise on the day of the 'big announcement', I personally favour gradually building up a position in the days/weeks/months before ;-)

[maxim1999] 25/4/2025 11:46:12

If the new tender being granted suggests an increased probability of the sale deal being completed and the sale is highly beneficial to Caspian then why does the share price not rally to reflect the improved outlook?

[the new norm] 24/4/2025 16:25:17

Tenders are appearing in name of Absolute Oil Ltd, latest one is for oil transportation.

From my viewpoint it appears to be moving in the right direction but frustratingly at a glacial pace

Extension to 31st May 2025, anyone?

[maxim1999] 24/4/2025 14:05:21

4 optionsDelayCompletionDeal falls apartDeal modified in negative way Not suggesting these are equal probability and even deal falls apart would lead to a small temporary fall. So on balance it's only really upside from here as the price so low

[jimmyg7] 24/4/2025 12:37:06

It's a bit like when you were younger waiting on your birthday to see what presents you were going to get.On the other hand it's also like being a prisoner on death row counting down the days.Lol lolAll the best everyone

[the new norm] 23/4/2025 19:41:58

BREAKING NEWS!

New Kaz Energy Minister appears to be a fan of granting new oil production licences ;-)

[the new norm] 23/4/2025 14:13:32

K

that's brilliant

loving your positive cynicism ;-)

[spangle93] 22/4/2025 08:34:50

TNN - WS may turn out to be a good deal.

If you want the positive spin, the company believes internally that the structure has a far higher chance of success than the independent examiner does. In their releases, they are planning for success.

It's just that conventionally, if you wanted to participate in an exploration well, you'd just farm in by paying part or all of the operator's cost. You wouldn't spend £5MM to by a licence with a 50:50 chance of it being camel pasture.

[xclusive2] 22/4/2025 07:57:40

I'm focusing on the fact that asset portfolio = multiples of share price PROVIDING they obtain the prod/appraisal licences. The fact that they 'could' raise $150m+ from partial sale of BNG and MJF is encouraging although we all know BNG is a giveaway but I'd rather have the cash to develop it as opposed to have zippo value attributed to the asset. Certainly don't want to see anymore related party deals but we can't control that. Can't believe that a ME investor would consider investing $75m into a company that is doing dodgy deals. Need to complete MJF deal and obtain licences, shareholders will feel a lot happier then.Meanwhile Trumps Tariff strategy is hurting the markets. Govt at odds with Fed and interest rate cuts have to come as they desperately need stimulus from somewhere. Going to be very volatile for a while !

[bluemango] 21/4/2025 17:43:02

NN

I can't speak for X2, but if you want some positive vibes -

One day, not too far off but yet to be determined, the Casp share price will be multiples higher than the current level.

[the new norm] 21/4/2025 12:08:13

SP93

Do you think WS is a worse deal than B8?

I'm conscious we lent $5m a couple of years ago to the current owner of B8 and the prospect of getting any of that cash back is tied up in licence negotiations which seem to be going on forever

Was the 3AB deal worse than both WS & B8?

X2 do you want to add some positive vibes before I get sucked into a negativity death spiral ;-)

[spangle93] 21/4/2025 09:04:21

True, the (first) deal is completed at a premium to the current share price.

Maybe the market is also considering that they're paying the equivalent of £4MM, now £2.8MM for the opportunity to spend additional, unstated money (!) to drill a well on a single exploration prospect, which was independently rated (for the Jurassic) as having a 50:50 chance of success.

The independent lower Triassic reservoir rates at 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 chance of success.

If Jurassic success happened in BOTH potential reservoirs, the most likely (2U) recoverable volume in the field is around 24 MMbbl, but as it's a structure with little vertical relief, the range of possibilities is pretty large.

Oh, and did we mention that only part of the field in this case would be enclosed by the licence. Excluding the portion of the structure that is mapped outside the licence brings the mid-case bookable figure down to 16 MMbbl

Let's say it's successful - hurrah! Then we can spend money drilling a production well - almost certainly a horizontal well because of the nature of the field. Or maybe 2 or 3. More capex.

The Shalva-1 well flowed from the Jurassic at 80 bbl/day. If that were brought on production, we'd have to issue another 99 MM shares, plus wait 5.7 years for revenue for CASP before the first £5MM of oil revenue (at a positive £30/bbl assumption for domestic oil), owed as part of the deal to the vendor, has been cleared.

But our horizontal well could perhaps crack out 500 bbl/day. Even then it's going to be the best part of year before anything is received by CASP, and that's assuming a pretty good domestic oil price.

So no, I can't see the market getting that excited by this shonky deal that is strongly biased in favour of the vendor.

[the new norm] 20/4/2025 12:20:31

THE STARS HAVE ALIGNED PERFECTLY FOR CASP!

Suddenly KO/CC are on the cusp of looking very very clever deal brokers!

If they SOON bank the cash from the Shallows sale at last years price tag $88m that pile of cash has a substantially higher purchasing power for Kaz assets compared to last year or year before. Also more scope to buy an asset and pay a special dividend at the same time

Crude and KZT currently at multi year lows



C'mon Clive surprise me for once!

[maxim1999] 17/4/2025 10:26:31

An assertion with no back up is not very compelling . Just hot air.

[the new norm] 16/4/2025 10:13:21

Can buy 300k for 2.8p

If your appetite is more demanding then you need to pay 2.9p for 500k+

MMs trying to use current wide spread to shake out a few paperhands ;-)

[xclusive2] 16/4/2025 09:07:15

As you say, failure with the drill bit has led to a loss of confidence and the inconsistent comms (that's the nice description) have ruined credibility. They need to get the shallows sale out of the way this month and then get cracking on the WS well, update on the remedial work on the producing well at B8 ( gone silent !) and hopefully we see the licence approvals on BNG/B8 blocks rather than continued corporate activity. If they can't succeed with the drill bit, they'll eventually bin the company or assets and it won't be for 2.7p !!

[the new norm] 16/4/2025 08:43:13

Just for a little brain exercise imagine a world where the following happens

666 PLC is listed on the UK AIM market and has been in exclusive negotiations to acquire the assets of xxx plc, a competitor who has hit hard times and want to exit into retirement.

666 negotiate a paper deal where the assets of xxx are acquired by issuing 200,000 shares at 4p per share reflecting a 42.8% premium to yesterday's closing price (2.8p)

The additional shares to be issued represents 8.888% of the existing issued share capital

On the day of the RNS the share price of 666 spike 25% to reflect the fresh price discovery disclosed following the terms attaching to the xxx asset acquisition

Unfortunately for CASP current market sentiment towards their Board and the perceived view that they are incompetent and lacking the skills to deliver positive results, the CASP share price fails to react to a paper deal which has been completed at a significant premium, hey ho ;-)

[maxim1999] 16/4/2025 07:37:38

I read the statement yesterday. Same format we keep seeing . We are pleased to announce a dilutive deal for shares , to a related party , with spud date and production date with no significant share price improvement. So they will spud the well and then weirdly nothing seems to happen. It joins the ever growing list of awaited updates on projects going seemingly no where. I think we all know if true to form WS won't be in production in H2

[xclusive2] 15/4/2025 19:29:27

I'd love that but I believe the cash goes into the business, acquisitions etc, hopefully not another nephew with a pile of shoite to sell !!

[konil] 15/4/2025 18:41:34

yes smarty, would like to see serious progress on all those fronts.

maybe my comments a little tongue in cheek but not entirely so. for example even a 1p divi would do wonders for the share price at current share price that would be a 33% return, of course the moment it is announced the share price will react so newcomers would not see 33% but that still leaves a lot for newcomers to go at.

the 'family' would pocket 50.57% of any payout in tax free jurisdiction, so every reason to do it. they must be sick of the performance to date so why not take some cash while waiting for the sludge that is set in cement, aka kaz bureaucracy, to move 0.5mm.