Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 09/12/2024 12:09

I'll give you a clue. More than 5p ;)

[credock] 09/12/2024 11:59

No idea Norm. Now ask me on on football lol

[the new norm] 09/12/2024 10:19

Shares in Company A trades at 3p

Company announces the sale of a significant asset for cash equivalent of 5p per share

Asset sale completes and announces a special dividend of 5p

Company A continues to operate a business that supports a share price of 3p

QUESTION FOR CREDOCK...HOW MUCH ARE THE SHARES WORTH WHEN COMPANY A PUBLISHES RNS ANNOUNCING 5p SPECIAL DIVIDEND?

[bluemango] 09/12/2024 10:08

Consider an imaginary investor. Let's give him a name, call him 'incredulous'. He fancies making a quick, easy, gain and buys this little oil tiddler he's heard about.

Fast forward a few years maybe, Christmas is fast approaching, he needs to buy pressies but his oil tiddler is disappointing him and hasn't yet given the gains he needed. Basically he's given up. If that was you or I, perhaps we'd then want to exit, ideally on the back of new investors seeing the lowly price compared to asset value, reading this thread & liking the story, and buying in, pushing the price up a bit to make his exit less painful.

But what does our incredulous do?

He decides to trash the stock, post doom & gloom, says it certainly can't go above a certain price next year (how does he know?) and generally does his best to put off any potential new investors looking in to this thread to gauge current sentiment.

P.S. For any potential new investors looking in, whatever you're wondering, the answer is, genuinely; nobody knows.

[bluemango] 09/12/2024 09:38

Lol!

Why stop there? And the world's probably going to end too.

[credock] 09/12/2024 09:20

The only thing they may do is pay a giant dividend. It might buy us a lovely holiday but will buy the board another house in Dubai. But then what are we left with ??? Thats why the share price wont see 5p plus in 2025.

[bluemango] 08/12/2024 22:50

#24496

If I was a point-scoring kind of person (I'm not, btw) then I'd be saying 'bookmark that post'. Seriously, it doesn't matter how jaded, cynical, fed up or whatever you are, you can't say with any significant certainty, what a share price can or can't achieve ; and definitely can't know it won't be 5p - such a modest amount more than the current level in the whole of 2025, and less than half the nomad's current estimate for risked asset valuation per share.

Fact is, nobody knows.

[xclusive2] 08/12/2024 20:01

Credock,If you believe that then I hope you're not a holder anymore. I'd cash up tomorrow and put it in the house-building sector as their share prices have been slaughtered but that is one sector whereby our Starmer/Rayner could help significantly.

[credock] 08/12/2024 16:54

Maxim i can tell you with 1009 per cent certainty we will not see 5p in 2025 so dont get too excited.

[xclusive2] 08/12/2024 13:07

I believe share price does rise but not hugely. The share price is dictated by PIs and there's too many stale bulls and traders selling into any rise. The $72m is probably 4 years worth of turnover but then you have to add in the additional profitability as operational costs drop through the floor.I'm looking at the value of the assets individually and much that it's very subjective, the individual deep blocks could be sold for significant sums and as stated many times, I believe that starts in late 25. Even without further success in BNG blocks I believe they'll generate $200m+ for the acreage. The oil has flowed and if/when they obtain production licences , they will be verysaleable. Then add in the CE value and add to the cash pile from likely AR deal. The current share price is far removed from asset value which I believe should be double figures. We're going to see cash generation from asset sales but can they commercialise the WS and B8 structures whilst any assets are sold. Asset sales will generate significant cash imo and with that comes the windfall dividends. This is all speculation but I stay invested to see the commercialisation of current asset base.

[bluemango] 08/12/2024 12:16

#24492 352k buyer was somm (LSE)

[maxim1999] 08/12/2024 11:33

What does the price do if the AR deal completes ? Thoughts ?

[xclusive2] 06/12/2024 18:05

Good to see someone picking up a chunk at the close. Lets hope it's our CC forgetting he's in a closed period ;) Fancy some news next week, probably the completion of the AR deal.

[the new norm] 06/12/2024 12:56

MMs applying a similar strategy as earlier in the week

On Tuesday they moved offer up to 3.3p and any buy orders >350k shares were 3.28p

Today it's 3.28p >150k shares

Game of ever decreasing circles ;-)

Anyone got the balls to buy 600k shares to make it gap up before weekend? I doubt it! ;-)

LOL

looks like we have a MM who can't shift CASP shares they are holding...poor soul is really trying hard but no takers

Love it when those parasites are made to squirm ;-)

[the new norm] 06/12/2024 11:25

Agree Konil
I'm sure I read somewhere they have sunk $120m into the BNG deep structures and still no sign of oil flowing commercially
Will the G70 rig make a difference if they ever acquire one?
Will a farm in partner and the G70 be a better option for CASP?
The NPV of the cash already spent on the deeps must be north of $300m so a sale at anything less next year will be a loss in real terms but it might suit KO Family and LTHs if it pays out 3 or 4x current SP

We are at the stage where the next RNS could be transformational to share price...sitting on fence or selling up at this moment in time appear to be very risky options, when there might just be a huge spike in the share price just around the corner.

Clive knows the power of an intra day RNS!

[konil] 06/12/2024 10:47

dipla, the way things have gone here, i doubt they will bring in a deep unless they get lucky during some remedial works. its more likely they will try and firm up oip numbers in the deep assets and sell. they wont get as much as they would do if sold with a flowing deep on each structure (or even one structure) but that seems to be beyond them.

so how much for the deeps without any flowing wells? no idea but some fancy numbers have been suggested. even if not quite as much as has been suggested, if whatever they get is added to the sale price of shallows (assuming shallow sale goes ahead) then there will be a sizeable amount to distribute as divi.

so next question will they do a divi? again no idea, but at some point they will want to extract some of the value from the company to offshore it away from kaz. they have set up the structure and corporate entities to do that.

each investor will have their own cost of holdings and targets but for me the potential divi could be large enough that i'd be happy to take that and let the shares ride into the future to see how they shape the business away from e&p.

admittedly mostly wishful conjecture, but as stated, at some point ko and clan and the cp will want to monetise their holdings. i'm hoping that will come in next 2 years or sooner and also hoping no skullduggery to disenfranchise the pi, so i can ride on their coat tails.

[bluemango] 06/12/2024 07:59

Couldn't disagree more. The precise opposite applies; there's never been a more compelling price at which to hold or add, given the cash position, near term developments, and total asset value.

[dipla] 06/12/2024 07:48

Been here since roxi days, I think it's time to get out! Still no deep, just all talk

[xclusive2] 05/12/2024 10:54

500k dumped but hopefully those adding here are going to be rewarded. I'm expecting to see the AR completion news shortly. I believe all conditions will be met and if anything is holding it, it's probably the Kazakh bureaucracy. If it does complete pre year end deadline then the share price will start to move as the other material news nears -;Key events- Licence approvals at BNG/B8. This allows the continued testing of 803 and resumption of remedial work on other wells on BBG. I suspect Block 8 licence will be received first enabling the testing of the Akkuduk well already drilled.- W Shalva spuds in Q1 following completion of acquisition. This structure could replace MJF volume but as we know, it could also be non commercial but won't be long to find out.As stated many times, I believe that BNG will be up for sale next year following the remedial and testing work on all wells. They've already stated that the drilling is too difficult for them, the FDP and all infrastructure costs to high for them so the obvious solution is to sell the structures. Value will depend on outcomes on 803 and A5 . Caspian are moving into a cash generation phase and the AR deal demonstrates what can be achieved should they decide to sell assets. A lot more than the current share price and I believe all LTHs will eventually get that long awaited lucrative return from their investment , fingers x'd.

[bluemango] 04/12/2024 13:26

Indeed.

Rather more then current level, that's for sure.

[the new norm] 04/12/2024 13:22

BM

Care to hazard a guess where the share price would go if all the licence renewals come in at the same time as the Shallows sale completes

All wrapped up in one blockbuster RNS

CC caught the market out with his intra day RNS a few weeks ago and I really wouldn't rule out him using the same tactic in the future ;-)

[maxim1999] 04/12/2024 12:57

Interesting. Thank you

[bluemango] 04/12/2024 12:02

A more appropriate question might be:

When were they last permitted to drill on blocks awaiting approval? Clear the bureaucratic logjam and the brakes are then finally off.