Carpetright Share Discussion Threads

[kumala] 17/3/2017 15:36

Things are looking up at last....and not before time.. nice to see the share price now trending up..Fab. GLANot holding.K

[blondeamon] 16/3/2017 22:36

Good read to understand the transformation here does not end with store closure and refittings:

[blondeamon] 16/3/2017 11:18

March has been a very busy month if the trustpilot review additions is anything to judge by. Score improved to 8.9 and on average there's 5-6 new reviews everyday which is on par with the January record.

Netherlands elections went the right way for the economy so the boom in economic confidence will probably continue for a while longer, good for our International sales.

Artificial grass started to be sold again, proved an excellent money maker last year and with improved IFC offers this could go quite well this year as well.

[gleach23] 16/3/2017 10:43

Looking perky today...having another go at 250p

[walbrock82] 09/3/2017 16:56

For those who haven't seen the monthly technical chart of Carpetright here's the link:

[only who?] 09/3/2017 16:48

Admittedly it's a few years ago now, but last time I visited my local store it seemed like time travelling back to the 1980s. Time for another poke around.

[blondeamon] 09/3/2017 16:16

I think there'll be some debt now with the accelerated fitting plan but nothing compared to previous years.

Time will tell but imo this is turning around quite fast and they even open new stores now so sales could start to stabilize soon and even go up by next year.

[bookbroker] 09/3/2017 15:50

This is a sound business, margins might be a bit skinny, but new guy attempting to bring overheads in hand, and get out of those expensive leases, it is a good name which needed some TLC., that he is doing, main thing is that this co. has practically no debt, that is a good cushion against competitors!

[bookbroker] 09/3/2017 15:46

That might apply to any retailer OW.

[only who?] 09/3/2017 15:40

There's been a disturbing trend around here redently to rate CPR using logic and crazy things like fundamental analysis. From previous experience this is folly. We should go back to sticking a pin in a chart:)

[bookbroker] 09/3/2017 15:40

It's like the best B&B. In the world, rated by TripAdvisor, supposedly in Llandudno, know someone who went there, quality severely lacking!

[blondeamon] 09/3/2017 15:20

Take them with a pinch of salt sure.

[bookbroker] 09/3/2017 15:15

Interesting, a few with one stars seem almost implausible, like customer being taken to cash point to pay, one assumes they request payment before fitting, I sometimes wonder if these comments sites are actually reflecting the opinion, or somebody with an axe to grind, and fitters turning up in a white van with a broken windscreen.

[blondeamon] 09/3/2017 12:10

Keep an eye on trustpilot, I watch it for more than 6 months and in the last 2 months the reviews have exploded with majority of it being 4 and 5 stars. The occasional complaint but overall seems like everyone loves visiting the new stores and the staff has become very professional and stopped pressuring for sales.

At the end it's all very relative. Netherland is now also on a 10 year high consumer spending spree which is why our Sales there are thriving right now.

On the other hand we have the Brexit decision end of this month and Dutch elections next week. So no one knows how the world will go but we know that the company is doing all the right steps and they are working.

On top, the massive closures of 2014/2015 will for the first time pay off this year as it takes 2 years to breakeven. So we'll have some nice bottom line savings going in this year and the next.

[bookbroker] 09/3/2017 10:31

Well go to some stores and ask the sales personnel, some of their stores are off course loss making still, refurbishments apace, and closing uneconomic stores where leases allow, this is work in progress currently, I went to a store recently in W. Yorks and the sales uptick was ahead LfL., but you have to visit your local store and ask the staff, and guess it helps where the store has been revamped!

[simso] 09/3/2017 10:00

K2 there is no divi, although to be fair there is little or no debt, so there is definitely potential for one.
I am more concerned on this share than most posters, especially as the price has risen so strongly.

I see it like this:-

Profit is incredibly sensitive to LFL sales and Margin Rate %. They have guided the Market on Margin to be 1 to 1.5% down on LY. Given sales of £450m, that is a negative building block of c£6m, in the context of a business which made £17m last year. I assume a large part of that margin pressure is from currency impact on cost of goods sold, and those pressures will continue into next year. I think it is hard for CPR to pass on those price increases, given the way it prices carpets with 99 pence price points(ie it cant change £6.99sqm to £7.13sqm etc).

How the LFL Sales play out is more of a judgement. We know first half LFL was -2.7%, and we know Q3 was +1.9%. Q3 covered Nov-Jan, and they told us Jan was +6.8%, so one must assume Nov and Dec in total must also have been down. It all depends now on what Q4 will bring, and the final profit number is very sensitive to that. If Q4 continues where January itself left off ay +6.8%, then we are in good shape here, and should land at the top end of brokers view. If it runs at the Q3 average of +1.9%, then I think we are at the lower end of Brokers Range. If however, the performance trend set for the first 8 months of the year is more reflective of where the business really is, and January was a "blip" (or perhaps driven by extensive advertising and promotion, where the spend is justifiable in a big month like January), then we are in for a nasty profit warning. Remember that last year, CPR pulled a +6% LFL out of the bag too in the month of January, and it did not presage a proper turnaround in performance then.

All will depend on that Q4 LFL, when we get to hear it at the end of April. I wish I had a sense of how trade is going!

[kristini2] 09/3/2017 09:05

well i caught this one right, nice change and it looks to be in recovery

is there a divi here guys, i cannot recall ?

K2

[simso] 09/3/2017 07:29

It's a fair point about the brexit benefit to the headline sales number for Europe. However, surely there is a bigger adverse currency impact on profit through cost of goods sold. I believe most stock is sourced in Euros and dollars?

[blondeamon] 08/3/2017 22:06

Good article walbrock.

One thing you didn't mention enough is the impact of International Sales. After Brexit the profits seen there are massively impacting the bottom line.

The only thing safe to compare right now are the Interims this year after Brexit and last year where the pound was still higher.

Interims 2016 vs Interims 2015 (Intl Sales figures only)
16% of total sales(35.8m) vs 13.8% of total sales(32m)
18.6% of profits vs 0.06% of profits
Lfl -1.5% in euro vs +5.5% (but significantly higher in pounds)
Operating margin 3.1% vs 1.9%

In short, International Sales in H1 had higher revenue, better margins and that resulted to a lot higher % of overall profits.

Now consider this effect on H2 that includes that 5.5% lfl increase in Europe in Q3. (22.4% in pounds)

My point is that I can see the International Sales bringing profits on the higher end of what is anticipated this year. CPR could even consider opening more stores there as trading improves.

[walbrock82] 08/3/2017 20:25

Carpetright PLC is looking good. The monthly chart would signal a rise to £3.50. See here:[img][...]

You can my full article a few weeks ago here: hxxp://walbrockresearch.com/will-carpetrights-shares-fly-again/

[gleach23] 08/3/2017 17:49

Trust you'll be taking the dog out again tomorrow? ;p

[1fox1] 08/3/2017 17:24

Was going to add this morning at 230p thought I would take the dog out first. When I returned it was 245p :o(

[blondeamon] 08/3/2017 16:02

Nothing goes up in a straight line. All that matters is that by 2019 this can be up to where it was last year, above 500p. And with a nice dividend on top.

[gleach23] 08/3/2017 13:25

Will be interesting to see how it tackles 250p which looks a resistance area on the recent chart

[oggyrocks] 08/3/2017 12:51

Looking good today. Seems to be gaining some momentum.

Maybe in the budget they are going to re-fit the house of commons.