Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[jan-mar] 17/11/2022 15:26

Somebody thinks it's a good invest30/2022 CLEAR STREET LLC Bought 3.0 Million shares of Carnival Corp9/30/2022 CREDIT SUISSE INTERNATIONAL (INV... Bought 2.8 Million shares of Carnival Corp9/30/2022 SEGANTII CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD. Bought 2.8 Million shares of Carnival Corp

[loganair] 17/11/2022 14:18

s2001 - Agreed.

[smurfy2001] 17/11/2022 12:24

Pierre Oreilly, they won't be paying a dividend for years not with the debt they have. Let's get realistic. If they were generating sufficient capital, they wouldn't be borrowing on a regular basis.

[rettah] 17/11/2022 10:05

Not my bag unfortunately! I have no doubts that the fleet is far more efficient with the larger ships replacing the smaller ones and with everything running profitability should be good.

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2022 10:01

Ret, if you are an accountant type, could you do a bofp estimate of revenue and cost for the new look fleet? Very rough of course, with lots of estimates, just to get a ballpark.

[rettah] 17/11/2022 09:54

The debt situation is pretty complex but i'm not sure the financing is at double previous as some of the rates for debt taken on during covid were really punitive:
Apr 2023 11.5% $- $4,000
Feb 2026 10.5% 775 775
Feb 2026 10.1% 481 508

If they are currently refinancing at around 5.75% then that is nearer half these figures.

They key to everything is of course a return to profitability and what this profitability is.

[loganair] 17/11/2022 09:53

PO - To get 5.75% interest when at he time government bonds were paying 1% at best and many paying 0% or even negative interest while many companies on the stock market were paying no dividends.

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2022 09:50

Yes, people threw billions at them when they had two years of zero revenue to look forward to. Why did they throw billions at them?

[loganair] 17/11/2022 09:48

2/3rds of CCL current debt was taken on due to the covid lock downs and the laying up of their fleet for months on end.

The current interest payments on CCL debt is running at circa $1.7bln per year.

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2022 09:46

That depends whether they are currently profitable, or whether they cut capex to become profitable.I wish you wouldn't make up your own facts.Debt has mainly to invest in a fleet of new, large, efficient ships at a bill each.Businesses take on debt to fund the tools of their trade. If they can raise cash, which many can't, those supplying the cash think the company have a very good profitable use for that cash. Obviously.

[loganair] 17/11/2022 09:38

The only way for CCL to pay a dividend at the moment is to pay for it through taking on more debt which will cause even a bigger problem for the company.

[jan-mar] 17/11/2022 09:29

It's what they, sit on their hands when the price is rising and then act the smart trader when it goes down. They don't have the balls to short and certainly wouldn't tell us when they do it and at what price.

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2022 09:25

Whether they re-establish divis or not is up to the directors, probably largely based on the profits they make, and you nor I know what they'll be. What I'd like is for them to pay a divi whatever the profit to demonstrate to the market that debt isn't the problem some think, and to express confidence in the future.

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2022 09:20

Sad to say LPG doesn't mean no soot emissions. I got my jeans laundered for free because when I sat on a sun lounger just after we boarded the Virtuosa (6 month old, enormous, LPG), there was a long soot stain on them.

[loganair] 17/11/2022 09:19

As I've posted a few times on this thread, the biggest worry, the biggest concern the managers of CCL have is the amount of debt they're now carrying which has trebled since 2019 with something like 1/3rd rolling over in the next 2 years with the need to pay double the amount of interest when rolled over - therefore it seems to me reasonable to say CCL will not be paying divis for years to come.

CCL new mega ships, even though more fuel efficient are costing between $780mln & $950mln each to build or put it another way $180,000 per passenger, which has to be paid for through taking on more debt.

Average life of a cruise ship is 30 years which will often need one refurbishment during this time costing several hundreds of millions of USD.

While at sea the average cost of fuel per ship is is circa $185,000 per day or $68mln per year - March 2022 figures

$19mln per year per ship goes on general maintenance.

The average cruise ship generates circa $250mln per year.

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2022 09:14

Never understand why the slaggers appear after a big price drop and not before. Is it a case of stale shorters, or those who can clearly see the future after it's happened?Fuel - with small old ships gone, new fuel efficient LPG mega ships continually coming into service, I'd estimate fuel costs per passenger mile are static.Debt up, good sign at this stage. It's investment in several billion dollar money printers. You've just got to look beyond the end of your nose.I hope CCL put the debt onto perspective and re-establish the divis.

[loganair] 16/11/2022 18:55

Plus fuel costs are up by circa 33% compared to pre covid times.

[peter oconnor] 16/11/2022 17:31

11 years pre covid profits just to pay the debt.
Some cash cow.

[smurfy2001] 16/11/2022 12:19

The gap after 736 is now closed.

[sr2day] 16/11/2022 12:08

this business is a cash cow once it is at cruising speed.barring another nasty surprise of pandemic magnitude this should recover. I am buying.

[smurfy2001] 16/11/2022 11:44

Was surprising as thought they'd covered 2024 with the previous raise.

[loganair] 16/11/2022 10:19

As I've posted a few times on this thread, the biggest worry, the biggest concern the managers of CCL have is the amount of debt they're now carrying with something like 1/3rd rolling over in the next 2 years with the need to pay double the amount of interest when rolled over.

sr2day - The new debt is double the interest rate of the old debt that is being rolled over.

By offering the option of a cash redemption at the end of the period for the new debt shows how much CCL are struggling with trying to repay any of their debt.

[pierre oreilly] 16/11/2022 10:06

Wish I were home, I'd have some more while down 107. Bounce back tomorrow imv, then continuation of steady rise.Problems come when companies can't borrow money, not when they can.

[sr2day] 16/11/2022 10:03

New debt to pay old debt.buying opportunity yet again.

[stansmith1] 16/11/2022 08:51

anyone recall if there was a huge broker upgrade two days before last time, safe to say we can mark their card...