Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[russell250] 17/7/2017 11:53

scamper

I don't use cfd - just funds/isas/sip - mainly Hargreaves / Ajbell / td

I made a good 7 figures last yr in my ajbell sip - miners esp Glencore I trade full time don't work 53 yrs old

[buywell3] 17/7/2017 11:45

Longs

I would not want to be long here when the new finance arrangements are announced

Hence this has become more of a day trading share ... I would not want to hold it personally overnight to read a nasty RNS the next morning.

Take care

[scamper] 17/7/2017 11:40

russell, well done. Who are you using and have they reduced the margin requirements?
30k is v large ..hehe,you probably moved the stock

[glenkaz] 17/7/2017 11:26

Feel a huge bounce this week! Gla! 🤒👌🏼

[right honorable lord lucan] 17/7/2017 11:22

HS2

“They [Carillion] are part of a consortium,”

“They are not alone in the contracts, and we have had secure undertakings from all the members of the consortium that they will deliver that contract."

“So it is not where one business has to deliver, it is a group of businesses that have to deliver and they have all committed to doing so.”



So if Carillion does go down, the other two within the 'consortium' will take over the work.

[hooley] 17/7/2017 11:15

No clear evidence of sizeable closing yet. The fact that coy has signed big contracts is very encouraging - you don't sign contracts with iffy cos. Big fund raising soon and disposal programme. Looking better. Perhaps we've seen the bottom?

[racg] 17/7/2017 11:09

First good negative post for a while.

[glenkaz] 17/7/2017 11:06

As I said £ on its way easy!

[miahkaysor] 17/7/2017 11:05

£ coming!!

[adamb1978] 17/7/2017 10:53

I've exited this morning on the bounce. Reasons being:

- the write-down will take net assets to somewhere around zero; if they write-down goodwill then net assets will be heavily negative. Therefore Directors need to be very confident about the busienss rather than risk trading when insolvent. The other point with this is that distributable reserves will be heavily negative to the extent that if they ever hope to pay a dividend again in the future, they need to repair the BS. From this perspective, an equity raising is inevitable

- construction is being exited - £500m new orders in H1, vs around say £1bn revenue. Adds to the commentary that its being wound down. So valuing this should focus on just the support services as the ongoing business. That business is ok, though low margin and cannot sustain the debt levels which they currently have, even before you adjust for the pension. I think they need to raise around £400m, pay half of that off the debt (so reduce leverage by around 1 turn of EBITDA) and stick the other £200m into the pension to reduce the smell of that

- I think we're therefore looking at a 2 for 1 rights issue in the 40p - 50p range. Thats my base case. My downside case is that this gets into a negative spiral to the point where the equity is worthless. I think they came close to reaching that point last week given that if the share price moves to around 40p, I dont think they'd be able to get a RI away, given that it wouldnt raise enough to solve their problems....and at that point, the share price heads rapidly to zero. I dont really have an upside case as I think a RI is inevitable...and a new CEO will definitely do that to try to clear-up the mess and blame it on his predecessors. He won't want to struggle on with the same messed up BS as it'll mean he cant run the company properly

Adam

[chinese investor] 17/7/2017 10:51

Always entertaining !

Professor Pettigrew (CLLN) 13 Jul 2017 - 21:01:40
Full of scandal here.
0p.

[chinese investor] 17/7/2017 10:48

That's settled then !

Chinese Investor (CLLN) 14 Jul 2017 - 11:37:13
It'll settle at around 70p !

[racg] 17/7/2017 10:48

Russell may be an amateur but he is on the right side of the current coin flip. Unlike you, with your increasingly desperate posts me old mucka.

[bookbroker] 17/7/2017 10:48

Remember Glencore 2015, that was not shorters, it was a crisis of confidence that caused the collapse, it was averted by the backing of Qatar amongst other factors, but this one is not so lucky, lucky, lucky!

[bookbroker] 17/7/2017 10:45

Russell, why do you think some are still holding, because they know it will fall further, you are an amateur like myself, the pros have this sorted!

[bookbroker] 17/7/2017 10:44

It's what is known commonly as an emergency to enable the company to pay its bills!

[bookbroker] 17/7/2017 10:42

Being marked up ahead of severe dilution, this rise is purely to enable the fundraising, if that what is required, to have some margin!

[russell250] 17/7/2017 10:41

sorts only fell 6% last week so your wrong there bookbroker

as of Friday close still largest % short on ftse over 20%

[deltalo] 17/7/2017 10:40

Lol I love it , shorters money getting destroyed. Soon be over £1.