Caretech Share Discussion Threads

[bloodhound] 22/3/2011 13:38

A bit overdone this drop don't we think?

Bh.

[bubbleandleek] 10/3/2011 08:03

YOU NEED TO BACK UP COMMENTS LIKE THAT MATE

[kenny] 09/3/2011 17:35

Be careful here - the accounts are all smoke and mirrors! This company is not as strong as it presents itself to be and you really need to dig into the accounts to find the finanacial position.

If they have overpaid for acquisitions, then within 1-2 years all will unravel.

[envirovision] 09/3/2011 10:26

Forecasting pre-tax profits of £19.4 million on revenue of £111.8 million for the year to September 2011, a dividend per share of 6.3p is also expected. Identifying a 12-month price target of 421p, the buy recommendation is reiterated

and the results are when ?

[toonces] 05/3/2011 00:00

Looks cheap enough indeed. Has multiplied bed capacity (almost by 3x) & provides a service that would be pretty difficult to replace. Debt is manageable, decent operating and profit margin...
Are we looking at some support @200 and a trend to go up, with a projected resistance toward 300?

[bubbleandleek] 28/2/2011 11:25

Hearing the selling pressure which has affected the stock over the last few weeks has been cleared at 205p - I see no reason why the shares should still be trading at current levels. This looks a bargain as in my view the debt concerns surrounding the company are unjustified.

[greg the grinch] 20/2/2011 20:38

I got my 1st chunk....will it go lower....mmm...dont know but its cheap now imho.
I dont know if it will go lower over the next month but give it 6 months and on a risk reward basis its odds on much higher.

[bubbleandleek] 17/2/2011 14:05

for a company of it's size it's the only way they can grow in that particular sector.... buying the beds is key

[envirovision] 17/2/2011 13:08

......................albeit through acqusitions.



That's one of the problems really and a reason to stay clear imo.

[bubbleandleek] 17/2/2011 12:58

CTH - a couple of people have asked about this stock recently. I am a fan. They've got great asset backing at c£230m, debt of c£113m, mkt cap £110m. Stock now trading on a discount to tangible book val -debt. Decent banking facility in place with favourable terms.

I know LA's are looking at cost savings across the board and are penny picnhing everywhere they can but there is a limit on what they can do when it comes to vulnerable people. I think we're looking at an average 3% cut to fees across CTH's portfolio. I come to that conclusion after hearing a presentation from the company and from the comments in the most recent AGM stmt.

They have a high level of occupancy with high visibilty and have maintained growth over the last 5 years which has been nothing short of impressive albeit through acqusitions. Dividend growing and at this px the risk/reward trade clearly points lto the upside.

The company has laid its cards on the table in respect to the accounting issues surrounding acqusitions but this still seems to be an issue for investors. The risks in my bview relate to larger than expected fee cuts (-10%) & a housing crash!

at 220p these look a bargain... i understand there is c280k shares knocking about still but take these out of the game and i think we'll start to see a nice steady rise back towards 300p

peace out

[essentialinvestor] 15/2/2011 14:18

enviro - replied on SHA - only just seen your post.

[envirovision] 15/2/2011 13:58

EI whats your opinion of caretech now ?

[bobby_super] 02/2/2011 12:09

7.5m traded @ 220p - time for the rally

[griffmg] 26/1/2011 08:15

"Interesting, but imho I think the underlying trend is ok"

Really, are you holding the graph the right way up?

[luchan] 24/1/2011 10:27

Chaps,

if it sees 200p ... I'm in.

luchan.

[nellie1973] 19/1/2011 13:47

Broker upgrade today

[turnerpa51] 16/12/2010 08:56

Interesting, but imho I think the underlying trend is ok and so I have purchased another 1,000 shares today - taking me to 3,000 shares, duly recorded at 08:23 in the LSE dealings log.

[griffmg] 15/12/2010 16:36

Thank you.

That is very interesting

[goliard] 15/12/2010 11:54

Sorry - yes I did. Should have taken out a short when I posted that!

Our view
More detailed analysis of CareTech's preliminary results has highlighted not only that the way it treats the cost of its internal development and acquisition team is, in our view, overstating profits, but also that future cash flows will be negatively impacted by a number of one-offs, reducing the potential enhancement from acquisitions. Whilst neither of these issues are fundamental, nor are they immaterial and we move to Hold today.

Key points
• Profits overstated in our view - whilst there is nothing technically wrong with the way CareTech is accounting for the cost of its £2m internal development and acquisition team, we think treating it as an adjustment overstates profits. Not only is the cost ongoing, but some of it relates to developments which are included in our forecasts. Including the cost in our formal forecasts would reduce EPS by around 10%.
• Cash flow not as strong as we thought - not only will cash flows be impacted by the above, but also by a £6m cash impact of the "ineffective hedges" and close to £8m of deferred consideration. We think this means that CareTech has less than £30m of acquisition firepower based on its existing facilities, which in turn reduces the potential for acquisition-led upgrades to around 10%, lower than we had thought.
• Reduced price target - we have reduced our price target from 467p to 393p, reflecting not only the fact that we are now valuing CareTech post the costs of its internal development and acquisition team, but also lowering the multiple we use to value the business, reflecting our broader concerns.

[griffmg] 15/12/2010 07:44

Thank you Redface

(I meant to type 'Accounting Practices' - doh!)

[griffmg] 14/12/2010 17:26

Goliard, do you mean 'Accounting Practises'?

Is there a link somewhere I can follow?