Capital Pub Share Discussion Threads

[jeff h] 26/1/2010 08:10

John Lee doubles his stake?:-

The adage "there's no such thing as a free lunch" certainly proved true with my New Year visit to the Ladbroke Arms - the flagship gastro-pub of the Alternative Invesment Market (Aim) quoted Capital Pub Company (LSE: CPUB.L - news) . Impressed with the ambience, the food, the activity at lunchtime - and the fact that my host, chief executive Clive Watson, has been steadily increasing his shareholding - I became convinced to double my stake. This must make it the most expensive lunch likely to be consumed in London in 2010!

Capital Pub Company - which is trading well and at half its asset value - is typical of many of the established, profitable, undervalued Aim stocks that I have been steadily accumulating, in the hope that they will "deliver" in 3-5 years time. So, while I am pleased with my 28 per cent overall gain in 2009, I am not concerned with 12-month performance figures. I take a much longer view.

[cockneyrebel] 24/1/2010 12:52

I think you're probably right timbo, I can't see me winning PPP's comp, it will be some obscure miner in all liklihood. Sadly I don't do miners usually. I dare say to get that winning multibagger miner you need to buy a huge spread of them and many are likely to disappear with your cash.

For that reason I decided to chose something that looked a 'safe*' potential bagger rather than a risky mega-bagger in the knowledge that most on PPP thread tend to be of the cautious type.

* 'Safe' as in less risky and with the asset position to ensure it's unlikely to do anything too nasty to a holder over the 12 month period.

CR

[timbo003] 23/1/2010 22:39

Hi Nurdin

yes, they could well double from here (or, they may not).

My point was in my previous post is that CPUB are unlikely to be a mega multibagger in a 12 month time frame, whereas other shares will multibag.

[nurdin] 23/1/2010 21:56

I beg to differ....but then it depends on your time frame.Wouldnt surprise me if these become a one bagger from here in 12 mnths time..

[timbo003] 23/1/2010 20:37

It's worth remembering that this company was initially offered to the public via IFAs, it was EIS (Enterprise Investment Scheme) qualifying (with all those lovely tax breaks)and unquoted. Because it was EIS qualifying, most investors initial investors are likely to have been either VCTs or high net worth individuals with capital gains to shelter and it is highly likely that they subscribed for their shares in certificated form (not in nominee accounts) and there was a three year minimum holding period in order to qualify for the generous tax breaks. For this reason, I suspect that most shares are held as certificates, indeed, if this is the case, the effective free float is likely to be considerably smaller than most other AIM companies with a similar market cap.

I held CPUB for a while, I bought in at around 50p last year and I sold out at around 75p, I needed the money for other things. I like the company and I like the few CPUB pubs that I have visited. I think the shares currently look good value right now and they will go higher, but I don't think CR will win the PPP share competition with them, the winner is likely to be a miner or an oily. I just wish I knew which one!

[jeff h] 23/1/2010 14:39

Thanks for your musings meict

I'll try the Square Pig the next time I'm in Holborn.

I guess you went the Princess Louise when it was a freehouse?

I think its been a Sam Smiths place for a good few years now.

I was in it a few months back....still got the stained glass windows etc
and a pint is still ridiculously cheap in there...under £2.

[cockneyrebel] 23/1/2010 13:58

Interesting trades today - I noticed the mm's took 35K to fill a 25K buy that showed at the close.

It's oftent hard to guage the mm's position here - they often appear to be weak by marking down then take a chunk merrily. Saw this last week when the sock looked week, ticked down and then they were taking stock happily - only to see a 50K director buy go through!

I suspect the directors are after stock myself. 'If' they do have an end of year trading statement in mid March then they don't really have much more than a few weeks to buy without it looking like they were trading on inside knowledge so close to a t/s imo.

CR

[nurdin] 23/1/2010 08:34

No idea but that was a useful 'legs-on' research...thanks.

I have just been looking at their web-site...quite impressive it is too !!

[237gmoney] 22/1/2010 13:26

Any excuse to go for a pint Meic! Hopefully not all in the same night. I notice the Alex in clapham has a Austraila theme night for Austraila day on Tuesday night. Clapham is full of aussies so I expect it will be packed. Not sure if its company wide though?

[davidosh] 22/1/2010 10:12

meict....I fondly remember my days in Herne Hill too although as my first rented houseshare when I landed in London was in Elmwood Road on the borders with North Dulwich. The 'Half Moon' was always the lively pub in the area but I see CPUB is represented by the 'Florence' at 131-133 Dulwich Road. Brings back all the memories...

Dulwich and the surrounds seems to be an area they are targeting recently.

[meict] 21/1/2010 16:58

Perhaps I'll see you in the Alexander one day, it looks like it's taking over a million a year; the average for the portfolio is £15,000 per week (£750,000+ per year). They wouldn't hang on to the Belle Vue if it wasn't taking decent money.


The pubs takings should increase slightly on the weekends from 6 February when the Rugby Internationals start. Kick off for Ireland v Italy is at 14:30 and you'll have time to drain the dragon and get another pint before England plays Wales at 17:00.


The Annual General Meeting last year was at The George on the Strand on 10 September 2009 at 11.00 a.m. A bit early for me to start drinking but I'm sure that it would be free on that day. Less than a month later, will be the end of the interim period so I expect that they'll make some announcement, as to how the year is proceeding and what effect the World Cup had on trading.


By then, I expect the share price to be above 120p. Think of it 237gmoney, a near 50% profit and free beer!


I see that the share price has dropped back to 79.5p, perhaps the recommendation in The Scotsman will generate further buys to push the price through the 80p barrier.

Meic

[237gmoney] 21/1/2010 15:51

Meic, The Alex has changed a great deal in recent years. I know the manager in there well and the core staff have been there 6 years which is a long time for such a busy pub. They have just had two large HD screens fitted upstairs in the build up for the 6 nations and then the football. The alex should see a marked uptick in revenues this summer as it is much better shape than for the last world cup in 2006.

The Bell vue is on the corner. A smaller bar, with music and food on sundays. This attracts a different crowd. more tables and nice for a quiet drink and something to eat.

The alex however probably takes 3-4 times more than the bell vue but Im sure the Bell vue still makes a profit.

I hope your right Meic and I like the recent directors buys. Show confidence in the figures. Hopefully we have a trading update for the xmas and new year period on a like for like sales basis and we can look forward to increase in sales for the summer.

[meict] 21/1/2010 15:24

Glad to have you on board 237gmoney.


I remember The Alexander in Clapham many years ago when I lived in Herne Hill. it was an Irish pub then and very rough. At the time it was said that 'They passed the tin round'.


I was in Clapham a few weeks ago and was amazed by the difference. Is the Belle Vue almost opposite? If it's the pub I'm thinking of it used to look mock Tudor with plastic fittings inside. I did occasionally drink in there about twenty-five years ago; I don't know why but I used to try most pubs in those days.


Yes, the share only has an upside but I think that it may surpass your expectations very quickly. I'm expecting it to move quickly to around the 100p mark once the resistance at 80p has been breeched.

Meic

[237gmoney] 21/1/2010 14:29

Have just bought a small holding here guys. Have been watching for a while and with the news over at ETI today I think this has potential to rise 50%+ from here in the next 6-12 months.

From the ETI statement today........

"In addition, we have taken advantage of a strong market for sale and leaseback properties in London, selling at auction during the first quarter 20 pubs for net proceeds of £39 million, based upon 35-year, non-index linked leases back to ETI at an average rental cost of 6%. These pubs realised a significant profit above book value."

Someone also said.....

The big 'Buy to Let' guys are moving into the pub market. Better yields than housing. I can't think of any commercial investors that would be prepared to write 35yr non-indexlinked leases on their properties.

I also notice from another player that Pub's are still fetching 11x EBITDA on the open market.

I drink regularly in the Alexander in Clapham. Its the busiest pub in Clapham and the only one that shows all the sports. For the David Haye vs. Valuv Fight there was people standing on table outside the window to get a view of the tv screen to watch the fight it was so busy inside.

With the world cup coming along, its going to be crazy busy what with the times of the games and the summer period.

Good luck to all holders.

[meict] 21/1/2010 13:58

Unfortunately, Bryan Johnston of Brewin Dolphin doesn't do his homework, he just repeats what it said at the top of the Interim Statement.


If he read further down - do you think he can read a Balance Sheet? He would find that the Net Asset Value per share at the 26th of September, 2009 was 149p.


Once the price crashes through the 80p barrier, there should be no stopping it.


Having said that, our chums - the Market Makers - do not want to quote on-line for even 500 shares.


Meic

[drfionaspits] 21/1/2010 12:17

bought a few today

[jeff h] 21/1/2010 09:24

Buy Rec in The Scotsman today:-

[meict] 21/1/2010 02:28

Well Lads (and Lasses)


I've been trying to figure out what Pubs the Company owns.


The Annual Accounts for the year ending 31 March, 2009 lists 25:


The Alexandra at 14 Clapham Common South Side, London SW4

The Anglesea Arms (London Standard Pub of the Year in 1988) at 15 Selwood Terrace, London SW7

The Belle Vue at 1 Clapham Common South Side, London SW4

The Bishop at 27 Lordship Lane, London SE22

The Boaters Inn at Canbury Gardens, Lower Ham Road, Kingston-upon-Thames

The Clarence (London Standard Pub of the Year in 2006) at 90-92 Balham High Road, London SW12

The Durell Arms at 704 Fulham Road, London SW6

The Florence at 131-133 Dulwich Road, London SE24

The George at 213 Strand, London WC2R

The Golden Lion at 25 King Street, London SW1Y

The Hemingford Arms at 158 Hemingford Road, London N1

The Hog in the Pound (a Leasehold property) at 28 South Molton Street, London W1K

The Inn at Kew Gardens & Kew Gardens Hotel at 292 Sandycombe Road, Kew

The King's Arms (formerly The Larrik, which was bought as a Leasehold but don't know if this is still the case) at 425 New Kings Road, London SW6

The Ladbroke Arms at 54 Ladbroke Road, London W11

The Marquis of Granby at 142 Shaftesbury Avenue, London WC2H

The Merchant at 23-25 Battersea Rise, London SW11

The Peer at 70 Sydney Street, London SW3 6NJ

The Puzzle at 332 Garrett Lane, London SW18

The Southern Belle at 176 Fulham Palace Road, London W6

The Square Pig (a Leasehold property) at 30-32 Procter Street, London WC1

The Teddington Arms at 38-40 High Street, Teddington

The Warwick Castle at 6 Warwick Place, London W9

The World's End at 21-23 Stroud Green Road, London N4

Ye Olde Monken Holt at 193 High Street, Barnet EN5.


The Interim Statement lists two premises purchased after the year end:

The Uplands (a Leasehold property with an option to buy the Freehold) at 90, Crystal Palace Rd, London, SE22 This shows it 'tarted' up:

The Wishing Well at 21-23 Choumert Road, London SE15
This picture was taken before the pub changed hands:



Neither of the final two feature on the Company's site but there is mention, elsewhere, of The Wishing Well opening in February.


What is on the site and what I'm not absolutely sure about is:

The Burlington Arms at 21 Old Burlington Street, W1S 2JL.


What I have managed to ascertain is that this pub, owned by the The Burlington Arms Pub Co Ltd and that the Capital Pub Company manages it for a percentage of the profits.


Any thoughts, or information, regarding pubs in the portfolio?

Meic