Capital Share Discussion Threads

[dangersimpson2] 19/9/2018 14:11

FY19 might be a bit soon to see 60% utilisation average over the whole year but it shows where they would be on a running basis if/when they get there.

[gleach23] 19/9/2018 14:07

Thanks DS. A revenue projection for next year of $128.6m should get things moving, so hope you're in the right ball park.

By the way, I did notice the 2018 H1 report has $4.7m for Capex whereas you have $5.4m?

[dangersimpson2] 19/9/2018 13:30

Medium term they are targeting about 60% utilisation in current market conditions due to redeployment of rigs to West Africa. I expect the ARPOR to soften slightly as the mix changes, however even without any progress in Tanzania this would look something like this:


2018 H1 FY19Fleet 94 94Fleet Utilisation 46% 60%ARPOR 200 190# Rigs utilised 43 56Rev $m 54.5 128.6COS $m 33.7 83.6Gross Proft $m 20.8 45.0GP margin 38% 35%Admin $m 8.3 17Depreciation $m 6.7 12Op Profit (EBIT) $m 5.8 16.0PBT 5.0 14.0Tax $m 1.5 4.2Tax % 30% 30%PAT $m 2.8 9.8EBITDA $m 12.5 28.0OCF $m 7.2 23.8Capex $m 5.4 8.0FCF $m 0.3 11.6



At the current price this is something like a P/E of 8, EV/EBITDA of 2.2 and EV/FCF of 5.5. If Tanzanian market improves there would be further upside.

[gleach23] 19/9/2018 12:59

Disappointing to have such little movement here. We haven't flatlined like this on the chart since the period last year waiting for the outcome of the Tanzania legislative changes.

Q3 trading update about a month away.

[dangersimpson2] 16/8/2018 14:09

Listened to the conference call today. They were fairly up beat. Redeployment of rigs to West Africa going well, getting enquiries in the new offices and should have a positive impact on utilisation in H2. Had the first increase in revenue in Tanzania for over 2 years, small in size but shows that some progress is being made over political challenges by the miners there. At this early stage trending towards upper end of revenue guidance for full year.

Given their dollar earnings, scope for revenue to grow with increasing rig utilisation and +20% dividend growth this year then I'm not sure today's negative reaction to results is warranted.

[mfhmfh] 16/8/2018 13:58

Finncap reiterates 85p target price today.

[deanowls] 15/8/2018 12:44

Just had a read through again. Eight rigs deployed already for Q3 so the outlook on whether this has improved and I expect it to as over 20 rigs redeployed would indicate a plan after a large amount went through a maintenance program last year

[mfhmfh] 15/8/2018 11:28

half year results tomorrow. GLA.

last update:

'The Group provided new guidance on our anticipated revenues for the current financial year to $105-115 million, up from $100-110 million, on 18 June 2018'.

Hopefully revenues can be increased more as the year progresses.

[rivaldo] 19/7/2018 12:17

Finncap appear to have a target price of 109p here:

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/199001/capital-drilling-upgrades-forecasts-on-the-back-of-recent-successes-lands-three-new-contracts-199001.html

"Shares trading at discount to broker's valuation

The shares, up 10% in the last month, edged 0.2p higher to 44.4p, valuing the business at £60.5mln.

Broker finnCap reckon the stock is worth 109p. “The shares continue to trade at depressed levels, with sentiment dominated by the ongoing Tanzania situation,” it told investors."

[mfhmfh] 10/7/2018 10:35

From Finncap today:

'The group has announced its H1 trading update, providing evidence of improving Q2 utilisation rates and revenue growth, as rigs transferred to West Africa are deployed. Tendering and drilling activity is increasing in this high growth area. Additional exploration contracts in West Africa are set to deliver a stronger H2 performance and help underpin the increase in guidance made in June. As such, we retain our recently raised forecasts and 85p price target, which highlights that the shares are currently attractively rated, with significant upside.'

[rivaldo] 18/6/2018 11:08

Finncap's target price, reiterated today, is 85p, so there's plenty of upside.

Excellent announcements today, and good to see Finncap increasing their numbers following the uplift in forecast revenues.

The H1 trading update on July 10th should have a nice rosy tinge of optimism.

[mfhmfh] 18/6/2018 09:20

more rigs being moved to West Africa.

revenues for the current financial year already increased to $105-115 million, up from $100-110 million.

perhaps more positive news to come on July 10th.

[deanowls] 18/6/2018 08:39

I wonder why two separate announcements. Surely one would have done. Great news though, I wouldn’t expect them to move the rigs if they didn’t think they would win contracts. The operational gearing on this is great. If we can sort out east Africa now it would be fantastic. Although if anyone has read this the DP world issues there where assets are just seized they do not open themselves up for investment.

[gleach23] 18/6/2018 07:10

Terrific news regarding West Africa and increased revenue guidance today with just over 3 weeks to go before the H1 update.

[gleach23] 05/6/2018 20:45

Yes this slow steady rerate is good by me. It was well bid for all day. Nice 23k buy just before the close @ 43.9 too.

H1 update about a month away.

[mfhmfh] 05/6/2018 18:32

50 day MA has crossed 200 day MA which is also starting to turn positive. possible 'golden cross'. GLA.

[mfhmfh] 01/6/2018 15:01

slowly rising

[gleach23] 22/5/2018 15:51

Encouraging price action lately after a backtest of 40p support

[mfhmfh] 21/5/2018 12:08

SUSTAINABLE CAPITAL LTD above 5%

[gleach23] 08/5/2018 20:32

Confidence building here once again?

Modest amount of buying today and a nice 20k reported after hours @ 43p will hopefully support a continuation of this recent move.

[mfhmfh] 02/5/2018 10:46

SUSTAINABLE CAPITAL LTD above 4%

[gleach23] 01/5/2018 18:07

Well...almost 5.4m shares traded in 3 trades @ 39p to accompany the rise in share price (and hopefully a breakout from 40p).

According to the FT site, there are only 4 institutional shareholders that could have been selling that quantity (assuming it was one seller and it wasn't a director) -

Ruffer 8.51m
Aberforth 7.75
Blackrock 5.93
Allianz 5.6

[gleach23] 01/5/2018 11:50

That mid-price 2m+ trade is a rather a whopper for CAPD. Will be interesting to see whose it is/was.

Edit - online quote 39p to sell a decent quantity. 38.8p to buy. Market quote currently 38-40. Hopefully that large trade will initiate an upwards rerate.

[gleach23] 26/4/2018 08:20

Today's Q1 TU was out a little earlier than I had expected. Nothing in it to inject impetus into the share price just yet. Looks like west african contracts, which they expect this quarter, are required for that.

Ex-div for just under 1p today.

[mfhmfh] 11/4/2018 09:04

contract announced today.

'This contract continues to build on the Group's portfolio of long-term contracts, growing our platform in key West African markets...'

full year results mentioned as increasing focus on West Africa.