Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 02/5/2017 08:36

Finncap have today increased their target price to 109p (from 95p).

[paleje] 02/5/2017 08:16

Ditto that rivaldlo, earlier than expected too, must be chuffed and rightly so.

[rivaldo] 02/5/2017 07:16

Wow - a terrific update just out. "Multiple" new contract wins, revenue guidance for the year lifted heavily, strongest Q1 result for years....



There should be a BIG mark-up today and a very nice re-rating going forward - certainly back to 65p and likely well above that imo.

[rhomboid] 19/4/2017 12:35

Q1 numbers & commentary will be fascinating, I think the mkt has totally mispriced this as there are numerous costs attached to setting up new countries of operation and bringing the rig fleet back into higher levels of availability, we've seen those costs but CAPD will now be reaping the benefits in terms of cashflow

[gleach23] 19/4/2017 11:47

Would love to be proved wrong by a tick up in the share price but these mid-price trades listed as buys seem to be sells to me, based on the online quotes I'm getting.

Chart still looks good to me and Q1 update due in a few weeks.

[gleach23] 29/3/2017 09:13

Hi GR78...I'm also prepared to be patient here. Having more than trebled between Feb 16 and Feb 17 it's obviously had a strong year so perhaps some consolidation above 50p is now due.

Having said that, one good thing about CAPD is that it provides regular trading updates so the share price doesn't tend to stagnate too much.

Nice to see a tick up this morning!

[greenroom78] 24/3/2017 23:42

Thanks for sharing gleach, I'm not known for buying and holding but CAPD is one I'm doing just that with.

[gleach23] 24/3/2017 13:51

Full page write up in Shares this week.

In summary -

- don't be put off by full year results in case you were expecting booming profits as a result of resurgence in activity across mining sector
- a lot of new business in the year came from revival in exploration drilling for gold miners which is currently less profitable for the group
- pricing for exploration drilling still low relative to historic levels and single shifts are also currently being performed
- as mining cycle improves, should see double shifts and higher pricing (Jamie Boyton, Exec Chairman)
- most contract opportunities for exploration drilling lie in gold but Boyton believes there could soon be more work in base metals following recent price gains
- company now planning wider range of services hence the planned investment in a private lab testing business (A2) in a bid to get more money from existing clients
- Boyton says best margins among mining service companies are found in those with a lab business - one of biggest complaints from miners is how slowly they get lab results back as it slows their decision making

As one of their share picks for the year, Shares remain big fans of the stock

[rivaldo] 23/3/2017 09:06

Good spot paleje, thanks:

""Alecto Minerals plc (AIM: ALO), the African-focused gold and copper exploration and development company, is pleased to provide a positive operational update in relation to the Mowana Copper Project in Botswana ("Mowana" or the "Project").

Capital Drilling Limited (LSE: CAPD) has been awarded the contract for Drill and Blast and is currently mobilising its equipment to site"

[rhomboid] 22/3/2017 15:45

Good spot thx

I hope CAPD have the payment schedule written in their favour as Alecto are a tiny and financially stressed counterparty.

[deanowls] 22/3/2017 15:41

Excellent news, wonder how many rigs?

[paleje] 22/3/2017 10:12

Another contract win for Alecto Minerals in Botswana, not sure what it's worth but Alecto seem excited about it:-



EDIT: sorry that's misleading, to be clear the win is for CAPD, Alecto are to project owners

[rivaldo] 17/3/2017 09:17

Good summary here, with analyst comment as follows:

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/174925/capital-drilling-caps-a-year-of-progress-with-a-savvy-investment-174925.html?utm_source=Sign-Up.to&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7163-363489-Proactivity+-+16%2F03%2F2017

"Bang on forecast

House broker finnCap said the results were in line with the recent trading update.

“Market conditions continue to improve, with a strong improvement in exploration activity,” the broker said, as it left its recently updated current year estimates unchanged.

Capital Drilling recapped a number of exploration contracts it had won during the year, the benefits of which are expected to feed through this year.

“After a strong run, the shares have recently seen some profit taking and now offer an excellent buying opportunity,” the broker said."

[greenroom78] 16/3/2017 16:13

Nice long wick on that candle on the chart. Reversal from here hopefully.

[deanowls] 16/3/2017 16:02

They flagged up that the divi would be under review a while ago as they saw costs for start ups increasing. I expect it to resume an upward trend over the next year.

[twistednik] 16/3/2017 14:14

It's a tough business to evaluate.

EBITDA and revenue growth are heading in the right direction as you would expect with improved utilisation rates as we come out of the down-cycle.

The important bit is trying to assess how the EBITDA converts to cash (and what this will look like over the next 3 yrs). Clearly not very well in the current year as they are investing in new rigs and A2 (not sure the strategic rationale for this 50% acquisition except for having the same customer base).

How much cash is required to maintain the current fleet (at an average age of less than 5 yrs) vs growth capex and investment to grow profit in future years? This isn't easy to unpick from their presentation on 2016 capex numbers...

If you value this business on an EBITDA minus depreciation (as a proxy for maintenance capex) basis, it isn't generating much cash! The hope is that assets are depreciated on the BS at a faster rate, and will continue to generate further cash over their true useful life.

Further, as demand picks up and rig utilisation increases, this additional profit falls to the bottom line and should improve the Return on Capital from its current low base.

[greenroom78] 16/3/2017 09:50

Thanks all, I agree after a period of heavy investment it doesn't make sense to pay a huge dividend and put the balance sheet at risk. At least they retained some of the dividend and now see a period of growth for shareholders which should see a boost to FCF and then the dividend can return.

[darlocst] 16/3/2017 09:39

I listened in to the conference call. They sound very pleased about the return to revenue growth, which really picked up in H2 & were making positive noises about current financial year.

CAPD have retained their revenue guidance of $105-$112m for current year at the moment but said year had got off to a good start & will update in Q1 t/s.

Certainly sounded to me that once they have a bit more visibility that revenue numbers for year will move upwards.

Re dividend, the chairman described H2 as the perfect storm re capital investment, with margins at cycle low point combined with spending on rig refurbishment. Management want to retain a strong balance sheet with net cash.

shaunstar - your Q was the last one. Chairman said that could see increase in prod contracts in H2, to follow on from miners increasing budgets this year.

[shaunstar] 16/3/2017 09:38

I joined the results call, 17 people on the line and at leeast a couple of questions compared to only one question (mine) last time inc one from Shore Capital.

Unfortunately the call dropped for me at the start, i rejoined then dropped again at the end - just after i asked my question... so if anyone knows the answer to "whats the outlook for production contracts this year" please let me know :-)

Otherwise call was typically to the point, things going well and we're doing our job etc.

Couple of points i noted:
-CAPD seeing exploration budgets increase since last year in miners
-"Market conditions continue to be very buoyant" They will update again in first qtr trading statement including on any change to their $105 to $112 revenue guidance for 17/18
-Contract costs may start to rise in second half if demand continues
-Margins low because at this point in cycle theyre investing for future demand as part of the recovering conditions
-lab business has good margins

Did anyone else ask/hear any questions at the end of the call?

Shaun

[gleach23] 16/3/2017 09:27

Thanks rivaldo.

Having gone a bit heavy on these recently, am feeling becalmed by the share price action this morning after a mini flap on reading RNSs amid school run etc.

I also didn't see the dividend cut coming although now realise they only introduced their maiden dividend in 2015 at a time when capex was cut back and operational cashflow was impressively strong during the downturn, so perhaps the cutback isn't such a surprise and sounds like it was flagged by brokers which I didn't know (thanks WJCC.

That just leaves the potentially exciting 'strategic investment' as an unknown quantity for now but good to have the Fincapp retention of the 95p TP.

[rivaldo] 16/3/2017 09:01

Finncap have retained their 95p target price and say the results were in line with expectations. They forecast $20.1m EBITDA this year!

They conclude:

"Valuation.

After a strong run, the shares have recently seen some profit taking
and now offer an excellent buying opportunity. We recently increased our
forecasts with the exploration market starting to see a recovery. The shares are
currently trading on an EV/EBITDA of 3.6x in 2018 and a P/E of 13.5x. Our
unchanged 95p PT is based on an EV/EBITDA of 6.4x in 2018, which indicates
considerable upside. With market activity improving and as new contracts are
expected to have a strong drop through to profitability, we consider forecast the
risk to be on the upside reinforcing our enthusiastic stance."

[lord gnome] 16/3/2017 08:47

The dividend cut certainly wasn't obvious to me. I didn't see that one coming. Very disappointed as I bought these primarily for the yield (plus the very good prospect of share price recovery). I have now lost 60% of my income and what was a very decent paper profit has been whittled away to break-even. Not happy this morning. I will continue to hold in anticipation of a half decent share price performance over the next 12 months.

[rivaldo] 16/3/2017 08:29

The outlook looks excellent, but the short-term reaction has been muddied by the non earnings-enhancing new investment and the further investment into new rigs - which is necessary for all the new work, but means the cash position has fallen.

Hopefully the market will look at the growth and see what's going on behind the headline numbers. This is one of my smaller investments, but I might buy some more, especially if the gold price is stable and/or continues to rise as it is currently.