Cap-xx Share Discussion Threads

[royalalbert] 21/5/2021 07:24

Thanks for posting.

[grahamwales] 19/5/2021 13:39

I may have been a bit optimistic on my 8p placing prediction looks like it will be lower possibly 6-7p

[roofer2] 16/5/2021 13:18

I’d say a 300% rise in less than 12 months is a brilliant return, some ppl do research in a share and believe in it.

Try it sometime, it might boost your confidence better than the negative slat you keep posting on here !
Imo

R2

[jeanesy] 16/5/2021 09:33

I hope you are right as the recent shareprice action has not been great despite all the positivity

[bomber13] 13/5/2021 12:37

Thank you very much Roofer2 . As you can probably tell , I am a long-term believer and supporter ( probably 10 years ! ) , but I am only just beginning to visualise the dramatic transformation that is taking place before our very eyes .

[roofer2] 13/5/2021 07:09

Bomber13, I don’t think anyone would disagree with your above post, the best I’ve ever read on CPX !

R2

[bomber13] 12/5/2021 17:57

What seems abundantly clear from the recent research note on CAP-XX by new joint broker Cenkos is that its conclusions are conservative , and one strongly suspects the company itself would have encouraged such a message . Three striking features stand out for me -

1) Forecasts for the year to end June , 2021 are broadly similar to those of Allenby , the other joint broker . Total revenues are expected to be 14% up at A$4.1m , but , excluding royalties and licence revenue , which are now understandably suffering from the loss of Murata royalties , underlying product sales are expected to be up 40% from A$2.6m to A$3.6m . However , looking at the half-yearly splits , second-half product sales are only anticipated to rise 14% on the first-half of 2020/21 from A$1.7m to A$1.9m . This continues to look an extremely conservative assumption given what the company has been saying . CAP-XX's order book was 75% up at end December , 2020 , over 100% up at end January , 2021 , and still 100% up at the time of the interim results on 25th February . The newly relocated X-Murata plant was only commissioned in very late 2020 , and has been steadily gaining commercial traction throughout 2021 . Moreover , the group's contract manufacturer in Malaysia , NationGate in Penang , had been affected by COVID 19 constraints in the first 6 months of 2020/21 , and CAP-XX has publicly stated that it expects increased output in the second-half .

2) Thanks to the Cenkos note , we now have forecasts for 2021/22 , and 2022/23 for the first time since the arrival of COVID . Total revenues are expected to rise over 50% to A$6.5m in 2021/22 , and then all but double to A$12.6m in 2022/23 . Splitting out royalties and licence revenues again , the 3 year progression is even more impressive from A$3.6m to A$6.4m to A$12.4m . However , Cenkos has assumed a 25% loss of Murata customers , and only a slow steady climb back to some A$8m of revenue for the remaining customers by end 2022 . Given that Murata's customers would have probably built no more than 1 year's worth of stock before the plant relocation to Sydney in 2020 , and that there still remains little or no alternative to CAP-XX's thin prismatic supercapacitors , this is a fairly conservative expectation . Cenkos has also taken no account of any success in receiving the A$5m of damages owed by Ioxus , nor further success in winning new licencees , nor success in the Maxwell/Tesla infringement case , which could obviously have a profoundly positive impact on both finances and prospects . The X- Murata plant has raised CAP-XX's total supercapacitor production capacity to just short of 10m units pa , and , significantly , the 2022/23 revenue forecast not only represents just 50% of this capacity , but also just 1.4% of the global supercapacitor market .

3) Cenkos's DCF based target shareprice of 15p is arrived at using a fairly high discount rate of 13% . It has assumed no litigation success , no more licencees , no increased rate of growth in IOT applications other than expected , and a global market share for CAP-XX no higher than 5% by 2030 . If CAP-XX's business model is indeed validated by substantial free cash flow growth , and robust proof of IP , one would expect a much lower cost of capital to apply . For example , if one was to assume a 7% discount rate instead , Cenkos indicates that the DCF based target shareprice would become 46p . When comparing CAP-XX's EV/Sales assumption in 2023 with those of 10 companies within its quoted UK technology peer group , the undervaluation is even more striking . CAP-XX has an EV/Sales forecast of 6.6X in 2023 , whereas the unweighted average for the other 10 companies is 62X or a median of 17X .

With all of the above in mind , there would not only appear to be substantial scope for a rerating , but also decent upgrades ?

[roofer2] 11/5/2021 19:13

bbluesky, your on the money there.

The year end will show a much different story with a healthier S/P.
We are moving into profit, they are only going to get bigger from here on !
Imo

R2

[bbluesky] 11/5/2021 18:40

Agree R2 and as I implied I think there is a good chance of an institution or bigger player buying in on the back of this.It is a very solid piece of analysis. In the meantime, the short sighted players/sellers are providing a fabulous opportunity to make sure one has a full position.

[roofer2] 11/5/2021 16:59

Who ever it was that said Cenkos Securities plc don’t do broker analyst reports definitely got that wrong, the more I read it the better it sounds, massive confidence over the next few years with CPX !
Imo

R2

[bbluesky] 11/5/2021 14:57

Cenkos put an initial 15p valuation on the share and think that this could be raised. All this excludes any positive court settlement. They also say the valuation at £41m is v low for a tech company of this quality and position.

With luck and better connections hopefully they will find a block buyer to ease the overhang on the back of this note.

[roofer2] 11/5/2021 11:49

They could be selling to cover losses else where, like I say to sell at these prices with a future as bright as CPX comes across as desperate, mind you most of their shares only cost 3p lol
Imo

R2

[meijiman] 11/5/2021 11:09

If that's the case it explains a lot. Surely a better strategy would have been for the broker to find a new fund buyer and do an agency cross. Drip feeding relentless sales into the market can't help maximize your returns. The company could ideally do with some new long term institutional holders. I'm sure there are funds in the US that would find the proposition/value here fairly compelling.

[roofer2] 11/5/2021 10:49

The seller appears to be over stretched, not letting the S/P gain any momentum, until we get more instructions buying to hold longer than 14 months single figures are where we will stay, the 650k killed it for today, they’ve been at it since dec last year between them !!!

R2

[mattjos] 11/5/2021 09:48

It's a good note. Very thorough. Bit conservative imo but, that's fine

[roofer2] 11/5/2021 09:46

The long term big seller is still around, they’ll bring it lower despite the new contract wins and brilliant broker update imo

R2

[drobinson1991] 11/5/2021 09:23

You must be on the wrong website. It is free

[nitram64] 11/5/2021 09:08

I tried to access it from their website, but they wanted payment for it ...

[mattjos] 11/5/2021 09:08

It's about time this was brought to a wider audience & Cenks seem to have started that process. Been hanging around this level long enough now

[bbluesky] 11/5/2021 09:04

Cheers Sidam

[sidam] 11/5/2021 08:54

I am not sure it has to be paid for, as one could (maybe still can) sign up for Cenkos research directly and for free. However, I am not going to post it as it has my name all over it and I do not want to lose access. But worth a try to see if you can sign up.

[nitram64] 11/5/2021 08:44

It's a paid fir note, but there are a few extracts on L S & E

[bbluesky] 11/5/2021 08:30

No. Can someone post link please?

Thx