Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads

[bruceylegs] 10/5/2016 16:16

Chairman & wife bought a few today.

[bruceylegs] 10/5/2016 13:02

Nice boost from ST. He can really crank out those articles.

[davidosh] 10/5/2016 12:08

There are new broker notes out this morning with one from Singers and the other from Zeus I think. Simon Thompson of the IC has just tipped them after the results too.

[thomasthetank1] 10/5/2016 11:58

Read Zeus Capital's note on CAMBRIA AUTOMOBILES PLC (CAMB), out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB00B4R32X65

"Cambria delivered another strong set of results for H1 2016, exceeding our adjusted EPS forecast by 11% and delivering 43% YOY growth. As the group approaches its 10th anniversary, its development via self-funding from just £10.8m of equity capital is impressive. Both ROE and ROCE have been significantly ahead of its WACC and the sector average for some time, which is a sign of consistent quality. We consider the stock to be..."

[glaws2] 10/5/2016 11:51

No - N+1 Singer produced one in Jan 2016 - I don't have it - PBT of £10m and EPS of 7.9 for 2016 according to Sharepad

[eggbaconandbubble] 10/5/2016 11:46

No broker reports since June last year - according to Norwich & Peterborough website. Is that correct?

[hastings] 10/5/2016 10:18

Hi EC,yes we are both interested in MACF as you say, and going well it appears.

Thanks for pointing out the March reference, you are absolutely correct, its the February period just prior to the new plate that is traditionally slow.

[effortless cool] 10/5/2016 09:57

Hastings,

Thanks for the write-up. (I note that we also share an interest in MACF).

Regarding CAMB, you might want to change this bit: "whilst in terms of current trading March not renowned for great activity was actually substantially ahead year-on-year", since March is the biggest month for new car sales every year.

[effortless cool] 10/5/2016 09:54

JAF111, robroy2000,

Thanks for your comments - the model is indeed working well. The reason I overprojected profit is because I was a bit out on the revenue mix; I had expected less new and more used. The main surprises from these interims is that both inventories and trade payables are both about £20m higher than my forecasts. These are material variances, but presumably reflect CAMB gearing up for a record-beating March.

I am updating my forecasts now, and expect to upgrade.

[cnx] 10/5/2016 09:27

strange world..................... on april 8 the price was 75 approx............for 6 weeks we've seen sound discussion as to why price fell almost daily but always hope the results would be good. then we get better than expected (except divi)results and we're only back to april 8.........strange world

the really good thing is todays results are a wonderful platform for the future

[hastings] 10/5/2016 09:13

A few thoughts/comment that may be of interest to others.

[robroy2000] 10/5/2016 08:47

Very cool EC, you have every right to feel smug. Thankyou for sharing your analysis, you've obviously developed a very robust forecasting model.

[interceptor2] 10/5/2016 08:22

Also bought in at the open, interims read very positively and good to see they have the confidence to say that full year will be ahead to full year.

Credit to management for highlighting the true adjusted results rather than the the figures that are higher due to exceptional gains, many others wouldn't have.

[shanklin] 10/5/2016 08:07

Aah well, bought back at 74p a few CAMB that I sold for 79p in March.

[eggbaconandbubble] 10/5/2016 07:43

Agreed Effortless, the div is well stingy, with cover at approx 8!!!

[effortless cool] 10/5/2016 07:40

"The Board is confident that Cambria will maintain this momentum in the second half and will be head of current market expectations for the year as a whole".

Consensus EPS for 2016 was 7.9p.

[glaws2] 10/5/2016 07:36

Excellent results. Particularly pleasing that like for like new car sales has returned to growth (and in the light of the discussion of fleet versus private buyers above).

"......and will be ahead of current market expectations for the year as a whole"

[eggbaconandbubble] 10/5/2016 07:32

I'd be very happy running a company doing this well. Especially as Mark Carney is now talking about possible lowering of interest rates, meaning cheap credit will be around for sometime to come (regardless of the referendum outcome).

[jaf111] 10/5/2016 07:14

Yes very good effort Effortless!!!

Would expect strong bounce back after these excellent results....the recent slide in share price hard to understand.......once again outlook very positive / ahead of expectations.......

Fingers crossed

[effortless cool] 10/5/2016 07:11

Actuals:
Revenue: £278.4m
PTP: £5.7m
Dividend: 0.2p
Net cash: £0.3m

Feeling quite smug!

[effortless cool] 08/5/2016 09:44

So what do people expect from the interims on Tuesday?

I am going for:
Revenue: £277.9m
PTP: £6.2m (including £1.2m exception gain on disposal)
Dividend: 0.2p (stingy)
Net debt: £2.1m

[effortless cool] 06/5/2016 13:21

Thanks, M7. This is probably the reason for the disappointing LFL new car figures we have being seeing for a while from CAMB, vs. a more rapidly growing new car market. Also, gross margin is lower on company/fleet sales.

So potentially a fly in the ointment, but these are still ridiculously cheap, IMO.

[mortimer7] 06/5/2016 09:46

For the financial year ending 31st Aug 2015 CAMB new unit sales were:
9693 Private
1090 Commercial
695 Fleet
11388 Total
So they are heavily weighted towards the private market.
Be interesting to see the commentary in their results on Tuesday.

[effortless cool] 06/5/2016 09:16

UK new car registrations up 2% in April, being the highest in any April since 2003.

On the face of it, this is good news. However, the underlying picture shows fleet and business registrations up strongly, but private registrations down (-2.5%). Any thoughts if this dichotomy has any implications for CAMB?

[mortimer7] 06/5/2016 09:13

Motor sector keeps on going....
SMMT figures out this morning show New car registrations increased 2.0% in April to 189,505 units. The highest for April since 2003.
2% represents a levelling off versus recent months, however given the record numbers in March this was wholly expected.