Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads

[glaws2] 04/12/2015 10:35

David - today

UK new car market picks up in November after October fall, with registrations up 8% in the month.

2,453,426 cars registered in the year-to-date – an increase of 2% over the same period last year.

[davidosh] 04/12/2015 10:33

When are the November SMMT figures out ?

[glaws2] 04/12/2015 10:29

EC - we both work in the same area for same reasons. Nice move up today against a negative market back drop

[effortless cool] 04/12/2015 09:26

It was a lot of work to build but, having established the interrelationships between the various components of the financial statements, it is relatively easy to customise for other companies, although most have complicating quirks in their accounts or gaps in the published data, which need to be accommodated.

I only model small caps, because that's where I believe I have a competitive advantage. Large caps tend to have vastly more complex accounts and are best analysed by individuals with in-depth industry knowledge.

I also sometimes use the back of an envelope!

[glaws2] 04/12/2015 07:32

EC - that sounds like a very sophisticated model - well beyond mine which is more akin to the back of the envelope in comparison :)

[effortless cool] 04/12/2015 07:21

LOL. I wasn't intending to berate myself, merely reporting fact.

I have built a spreadsheet that models the accounts in their entirety. Each time results are published, I do a variance analysis (actual vs. expected) covering every line in the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement. This has two advantages: (1) I can quickly see any components of the financial statements that have developed materially differently from expectations and need further investigation; and (2) I can identify areas where my modelling assumptions may need to be improved. In practice, revenue is the biggest driver of out entries in the financial statements; if you can get that right, you're at least 50% of he way there.

Having seen brokers' models, I have no doubt that mine is superior!

[glaws2] 04/12/2015 07:00

I think you were a bit harsh on yourself there EC - you overestimated revenue by a mere £2.7 whereas the broker under-estimated it by £9.4m.

[effortless cool] 03/12/2015 21:57

Header updated. New target price of 91.3p.

[glaws2] 01/12/2015 07:46

Indeed - and move up is on good volume.

[davidosh] 26/11/2015 10:44

Yesterdays smallcap radio show and a new feature 'One to watch'

Cambria are discussed at the very start of the programme...

[haroldthegreat] 25/11/2015 15:40

cannot see a dealer suing their supplier. they might as well close the dealership. you do not bite the hand that feeds you ( or in this case supplies cars for you to sell) . they only appear to have one seat dealership so not widely exposed to vw group cars. so that is 1 out of 45 dealerships listed in their last annual report.

[buffythebuffoon] 25/11/2015 15:26

Sales of £524m exceeded £500m for the first time as the Group strengthened its position....

Nonsense. £524m has always exceeded £500m when it comes to sales. :-}

Buffy

[senor_sensible] 24/11/2015 14:12

not bad set of numbers today.

[jaf111] 24/11/2015 08:46

Yes...the current year start is pleasing and certainly await news on the acquisition front.

Having said that (perhaps I am greedy) but was slightly disappointed with the full year outturn number having expected a minimum of 6.5p eps...so after reporting a 66% increase in half year eps the second half saw a significant slowdown to just over 30% growth.......ok perhaps I am being very picky as Darcey Bussell might say!

[mortimer7] 24/11/2015 08:34

Results as good as expected, also renewed banking facilities in place and:-
"the Group's growth momentum has continued in the first two months of the new financial year with results substantially ahead of the comparable period".

All set for further steady progress IMO.

[jaf111] 19/11/2015 14:22

Inching up.......results out Tuesday 24 November which should make for a pleasant read.

[buffythebuffoon] 07/11/2015 09:34

Regardless of the size of the contribution new car sales make to the bottom line, we can get a bit blasé about the figures. We are talking about a slight drop off in the growth of sales.

Of course, a substantial drop off in the growth would be a warning sign, but things are still looking rosy on that front. Servicing and repairing cars obviously have a better margin, and it's this area where improvements are most felt. I'm wondering if we'll see increased consolidation in the next couple of years. I'm told that the smaller repair shops are slowly going out of business due to the squeeze on margins by outlets like Quikfit and the medium sized chains. If there is more consolidation at this level, then things will get interesting.

Buffy

[mortimer7] 06/11/2015 15:53

I realise the comparison is with October 2014 stepone.
The point I was trying to make was that September 2015 numbers were so good, it was likely that October 2015 would dip in comparison to 2014.

Viewing Sept & Oct as 2 months combined for the last 2 years and there's still considerable growth of 5.7%:-
425861+179714 = 605575 (2014)
462517+177664 = 640181 (2015)

All that said, I personally believe there's too much focus on the effect of New Car numbers. Aftersales is the largest profit contributor.

[stepone68] 05/11/2015 10:57

Hi Mortimer. The drop is compared to last October's sales so it's not related to September's record performance. Having said that, I think it's a good result given the VW issues. People will have delayed purchases once that news was out, expecting price reductions, so I think this will turn out to be a blip.

[effortless cool] 05/11/2015 10:19

First drop after 43 months of growth. Maybe a blip as Mortimer7 suggests, although growth momentum is definitely slowing.

[mortimer7] 05/11/2015 09:57

SMMT new car registration figures out for October: 177,664 units, a small decline of 1% on last year.
Total for 2015 so far is 2,274,550. 6.4% more than at this time in 2014.
Drop for the month hardly surprising following Septembers record performance and all the furore regarding emissions which kicked off the last week in September.
That said, it's interesting to note that the Diesel market share for October registrations was 51.3%, hardly a flicker from last year of 51.8%.

[shanklin] 06/10/2015 09:44

The figures for October will certainly be interesting as they will reflect any VW effect there may be for new car sales.

[mortimer7] 06/10/2015 09:08

SMMT new car registration figures just out for September (65 plate month).
Highest ever September total, 462,517 units, 6% up on last year.
43rd consecutive month of growth.
Total for 2015 so far is 2,096,886, 7.1% higher than at the same point last year. & the first time the two million mark has been passed in September since 2004.

[shanklin] 24/9/2015 14:12

Not sure is the brightest bulb in the box in terms of the sentence you did not include...

"Another law firm, Slater & Gordon, said it was fielding calls from concerned drivers. The firm’s head of group litigation, Jacqueline Young, said both owners and car dealerships would have viable legal claims for breach of contract, with the value of vehicles falsely boosted by VW’s misrepresentations. Shareholders might also have a case, Young said, after the 30% fall in its share price since the scandal erupted."

Who exactly would be paying the compensation to shareholders? Presumably the shareholders?