Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads

[stepone68] 24/9/2015 12:58

"Slater & Gordon’s head of group litigation, Jacqueline Young, believes that owners and car dealerships will both have viable legal claims for breach of contract, given that they have purchased the car based on misrepresentations which have devalued the vehicle."

From

[mortimer7] 24/9/2015 11:15

VW new car market share in the UK is around 8.5%.
In view of recent events it's an assumption this is going to reduce.
That means more market share for the manufacturers of the vehicles representing the remaining 91.5% market share.
CAMB don't have any VW sites, but could benefit from the potential migration of customers to other makes they represent.
Obviously the flaw in this argument is if new sales drop in general, but even if they do it shouldn't have too dramatic an effect because, at the risk of repeating myself, 76% of CAMB Gross Profit mix for 6 months ended 28 February 2015 was from Aftersales & Used Car operations.
"(New Car £7.2m Used Car £9.9m Aftersales £12.4m. Total £29.5m)"

[shanklin] 24/9/2015 10:20

The media is going to be all over the car industry for weeks/months/years and will try and find anything they can for a good story. As davidosh states, CAMB seem to have no connection to the revelations to date, but where is this whole story going to end? I just thought I might as well avoid the downside risk by panicking early.

Incidentally this was my remaining 1/3 of CAMB shares, the having sold the other 2/3 after what I thought (maybe wrongly) were poor LFL New car sales in the recent trading statement.

Cheers, Martin

P.S. Incidentally, I presume the recall work will be lucrative for which ever dealers get to do it but whether this with compensate for the difficulty in selling vehicles, it is difficult to say.

[haroldthegreat] 24/9/2015 09:00

just a thought that a car mechanic / expert might be able to answer. if there is a reservoir of urea on these vw cars to be used when the car is being tested why havent the trade queried why it is there. it must have to be checked/ topped up during services. a mechanic would know why a petrol / oil /water /antifreeze is there but urea? after all if the car is tested and the urea is used up at the next test it would fail . to pass the urea would have to be replaced.
do vw list urea in its replacement parts list?

[jimbobjames2002] 23/9/2015 16:58

Thanks for everyones thoughts, I guess my main concern is if other manufacturers are caught up in this as well - an expert talking on BBC 5 Live yesterday (sorry I forget his name) alluded to the fact that this discrepancy between test emissions and road emissions has been happening more and more in the last 18 months and not just concerning VW.

If consumers start mistrusting car manufacturers then sales could be dented, at least in the short term. I guess it depends how much it matters to the individual when they're thinking of buying a car.

[davidosh] 23/9/2015 16:34

I am not aware of Cambria having any VW dealerships at all. If anything they may gain sales from those looking to change away from VW though the price of second hand VWs on forecourts if they have any may slip a little.

I do not think that car buyers will take this into serious consideration but may look closer at the emission figures now they have been highlighted.

[buffythebuffoon] 23/9/2015 15:55

Why would anyone thinking of buying a new car now not do so. They might switch from VW, might, but that would hit a VW main dealer not CAMB.

Buffy

[mortimer7] 23/9/2015 15:23

On the emissions issue, SMMT issued a statement yesterday.
"there is no evidence to suggest that any other company is involved, let alone that this is an industry-wide issue".

[shanklin] 23/9/2015 15:07

IMHO, its certainly going to discourage anybody who is considering buying a new car, but is in no particular hurry, to delay a purchase until its more obvious which manufacturers are caught up in this.

Dealers seem likely to pick up lots of recall work but there may be a considerable reduction in the number of customer visiting showrooms for the foreseeable future.

All IMHO. I sold my remaining CAMB shares yesterday with this in mind.

Cheers, Martin

[stepone68] 23/9/2015 15:04

My thinking is that people will still be buying new cars. Some might be put off VW but not many, and if they are they will just switch to another manufacturer.

Can't see any material impact to CAMB. If this is the reason for the fall then maybe it's a buying opp.

[jimbobjames2002] 23/9/2015 14:46

Has anyone got any thoughts on how the VW fiasco might affect CAMB or any other car dealers? Could consumer confidence generally in newer cars be affected or is this just a short term issue?

There are also suggestions that VW might not be the only offenders.

Thanks

[cockerhoop] 16/9/2015 07:40

Thanks David, I think that ties in with the drop off in new car sales in H2 with pre-registered sales being transferred to improved used sales numbers.

[davidosh] 16/9/2015 01:59

Just for the record I did check to see how CAMB treat the pre registration of the new cars and they are conservative and only book them as sold when the car leaves the forecourt and it is then booked as a used car sale.

[wazzer82] 15/9/2015 16:09

Does anybody know if anything is going on today there seems to be a lot of buys going through since abouth 3pm today or at least my broker HL has them down as buys!

[mortimer7] 08/9/2015 16:10

spooky
At the risk of repeating myself, it's about a lot more than sales numbers:
"GP for Six months ended 28 February 2015
New Car £7.2m Used Car £9.9m Aftersales £12.4m. Total £29.5m"

Also the careful strategic acquisitions of smaller retailers made by the large dealer groups over the past few years are now adding to their revenue/profitability. So I think there is still a good period ahead for the listed motor retailers, whereas the smaller ones will feel it first as the sector levels off.

[cockerhoop] 08/9/2015 11:09

Shanklin,

There's definitely some dealer pre-registration going on, it appears to be increasing in the 2nd half which is demonstrated in the improved used sales figures and subdued new sales.

Overall profitability is obviously good as they wouldn't be exceeding forecasts. Servicing may well drive growth going forward.

What slightly irks me about CAMB is their slightly disingenuous comparisons
i.e. Comparing Total New Unit Sales (Including Acquis) to UK registrations figures which are more akin to LFL.

[spooky] 08/9/2015 10:56

What's really difficult to understand is why the sector is breaking out when sales numbers are beginning to show the first signs of tailing off or rolling over.

[shanklin] 08/9/2015 10:45

IMHO its quite difficult to understand how the New LFL sales number for months 7-11 is quite so dreadful.

[cockerhoop] 08/9/2015 08:34

Somewhat disappointing New LFL Sales Down approx 7.5% in last 6 months after being Up 9.9% for the 1st 5 months of the year to make 1.1% increase in total for 1st 11 months.

Used Sales improved suggesting Pre-registration on the increase.

In comparison VTU New Sales Up 0.4% LFL in last 5 months.

[jaf111] 08/9/2015 08:14

Not sure what the revised market expectations are....FWIW I was expecting 6.5p eps minimum....

Shares up again BUT can hardly been seen as expensive or overvalued. I remain very overweight to the car dealers and CAMB is still my biggest holding.

[effortless cool] 08/9/2015 07:10

A very encouraging update: "... results for the year to 31 August 2015 are expected to be ahead of revised market expectations".

As I predicted on 4 July: "I am as confident as one can be that we will see an 'ahead of market expectations' announcement in Cambria in due course".

[mortimer7] 07/9/2015 19:08

CAMB in IC today

[mortimer7] 07/9/2015 13:43

Up 3.5p, that's quite a step for CAMB. T/U was 8th Sept last year.

[jaf111] 07/9/2015 12:47

Moving up nicely....Trading Update due this week....

[effortless cool] 04/9/2015 14:40

Just over 1,000 units above my forecast. That's decent for August, although it is a small month. Next month is important. I forecast 459,565 for September.

New car registrations in CAMB's H2 period were 6.4% higher than in the previous year. The equivalent figures during CAMB's H1 were 8.2% higher, so the slowing trend in the wider market is apparent. Hopefully CAMB are retaining their advantage over the market and can deliver double-digit growth in units in H2.