Cambian Share Discussion Threads

[treble in 1999] 28/10/2016 10:31

Butch

That's what I was thinking but I think 160'ish is the next level, assuming were on a U curve.

Whatever we should hear by year end where were heading

[butchdogg] 28/10/2016 09:44

treb, well at the minute 124 is clear resistance.

We're hoping its accumulation taking place at this level not distribution. if this level break s up on decent volume then this point becomes support... in theory..

[treble in 1999] 28/10/2016 09:41

Butch

If resistance breaks 144,what happens to tour support lines.

Darkie

Don't sound new role me. Why did you buy at 54p, not tipped anywhere.

[butchdogg] 28/10/2016 09:19

Next logical chart points are

Resistance
144
175
190
258

support
99
84
70

[rmjpb] 27/10/2016 21:44

If you are up 125% and you let greed get the better of you previously, then you have not learnt your lesson.

[darkcloudcover] 27/10/2016 13:39

Hi BtB and Treble, i've been reading your comments for a few months and interested to hear if you can help me. I too hold a position in CMBN (in at 54p), but I am VERY VERY new to the markets and investing and struggle reading how the rarer company events would affect stock price i.e. when this company gets split up and adults sold off, what happens to the share price? Does the value of adults get deducted from the current share price? So if the portion that is sold off is valued at 33% of the existing company as a whole, would the resulting share price for cmbn go say, down to 83p?? Obviously, cmbn would become either debt-free of very nearly so and would instantly be more attractive to investors thereby pushing the price up, but surely the current price would drop initially after the sale??? Please forgive my naivety, I'm just keen to exit whilst i'm still 125% up! ;-) I let greed get the better of me on a position in NYSE:FIT recently and ended up exiting DURING the slide rather than before it! hahahaha

[bennytheball] 26/10/2016 16:35

Tempting 😊 - looks to me like someone is hoovering up everything up to 120 or thereabouts. Wonder what they know.

[treble in 1999] 26/10/2016 16:02

Correction on Griffiths, he's over 11% and over 20m shares etc

His purchasing has been interesting, picking up 8% at between 50-65p. Nice profit. But they add another 1% pre results at circa 80p, and then post results another 2% at up to 120p.

It looks like the shares might be ready to break out, but 123-126 is definite resistance.

Makes you wonder if the price is being held back, well it looks like it, but could just be the market.

In April the board announces a strategic options, which could include sale of assets or business units.They mention the adult services maybe sold or part sold. Actions like this are to satisfy the bankers.

Hendersons are in(increased holding in February at around 130p), Kabouter LLC are in at 8%(reduced their holding in July at say 60/65p), and Finacier de L'Equipier crossed 3% in April at 55p'ish, then 4% after the results at circa 100p'ish.

Could it be that the whole company goes up for sale or just the adult section. Over 25% of the company in these hands.

Can't be long to wait.

BtB, you might consider increasing that per point, Griffiths has. No advice intended.

[bennytheball] 25/10/2016 22:31

I expect they will make some sort of announcement before the end of November, but not convinced it will have numbers yet. I'm in for £250/pt.

[treble in 1999] 25/10/2016 15:43

Griffiths adds 400k shares and another 900k on CFD, now over 20%.

Wonder who he will sell to and at what price???

Surely the review is complete by now. Just let the market know whose buying and how much.

Looks like a breakout on its way as well BtB

[bennytheball] 24/10/2016 16:49

About ready for the next breakout?

[treble in 1999] 18/10/2016 12:42

Multibagger

I would have thought the value per unit would probably be based on the number of beds, the type of "client" and not really its cost basis.

But if my above 40 bed assumption is anywhere near correct, the value of the adult side is nearly 350m. Take off the debt to repaid and that leaves about 220m to be re-invested.

This should calm the bankers down, and allow further expansion. It's the way health care is going, and the child side appears buoyant.

Probable return to 200p plus in the months ahead.

[multibagger] 18/10/2016 12:33

Hi Treble in 1999,

The number of beds in units is very variable. It depends on the nature of the unit - Learning Disabilities, Rehabilitation, Personality Disorder units, Acute General Adult Psychiatry etc.

A very rough guess would be in the region of 40 beds/unit - for reasons of economies of scale and staffing issues, though I am aware of much smaller rehab units within their portfolio. Their real estate housing these units is also variable from custom built units, modified large houses, units in residential areas etc.

[treble in 1999] 18/10/2016 12:18

Trying to get an angle on the above deal.
22 hospitals for £300m, so approx 13.5m per hospital. Their website gives very little indication of beds per hospital, but one in wales is 34 bed, the most the website shows. Lets be prudent and say 40 beds is the average(I don't know really, so help needed)
Cambian's last results say the adult side had 1152 beds, at 40 per hospital , that's 28/29 hospitals. The sale could generate up to £350m.
Can anyone shed any further light on the number of beds per CMBN hospital??

[bennytheball] 18/10/2016 06:57

BC Partners set to buy 22 Priory clinics
Disposal worth £300m comes after inquiry by UK competition watchdog

BC Partners has agreed to buy 22 hospitals owned by the Priory Group, the privately run mental healthcare chain that has counted model Kate Moss and pop star Robbie Williams as clients.

The private equity firm fought off interest from peers including Advent International by agreeing to pay about £300m for the hospitals to Acadia Healthcare, the US company that owns the Priory, according to people close to the sale.

Acadia announced a deal to buy the Priory and its 322 facilities, including the Roehampton clinic in south-west London, in January for £1.3bn but UK regulators expressed concerns the purchase could lead to a lack of competition. This could push up prices for local authorities and Britain’s National Health Service, which pay the private sector to treat certain patients with mental health illnesses.

The UK Competition and Markets Authority indicated in July that Acadia could avoid an in-depth competition inquiry if the company addressed its concerns, although the watchdog could change its stance.

BC Partners was one of two provisional buyers for the 22 Priory hospitals, alongside Advent International, approved by the CMA. The sale to BC Partners, which does not include the Roehampton clinic, is subject to the watchdog’s approval.

The investigation by the CMA into Acadia’s UK assets has taken the company by surprise.

The Priory Group acquisition marked the second big deal for Acadia in Britain after it bought Partnerships in Care, a chain of 23 mental health clinics, in 2014 for £394m. Together with the Priory Group, this gave Acadia more than 50 per cent of the private mental healthcare market in the UK.

Acadia operates 51 clinics with 4,200 beds in 23 US states and Puerto Rico, making it one of the biggest mental healthcare providers in the world.

BC Partners declined to comment. Partnerships in Care, which handles media inquiries for Acadia, also declined to comment.

Private equity firms have expressed an interest in opportunities in the growing mental healthcare services market in the UK, which is undergoing consolidation.

Cambian Group, a UK-listed mental healthcare specialist, is offloading some of its business as it struggles with mounting debts, while Four Seasons, Britain’s biggest care home operator, is also in the process of selling properties. This could eventually include Huntercombe, its mental healthcare division.

The CMA’s intervention on Acadia’s Priory deal follows a long-running investigation by the watchdog into Britain’s privately run hospitals.

Although the CMA initially ruled in 2013 that 20 private hospitals would have to be sold because of concerns about inadequate competition leading to high prices, the watchdog retreated from its decision this year after concluding new entrants were entering the industry.

Operators including BMI Healthcare, HCA and Spire Healthcare had challenged the CMA’s original findings.

[bennytheball] 10/10/2016 18:32

Yes, saw that - over 10% in all...

[treble in 1999] 10/10/2016 17:40

Griffiths now add nearly 300k owned and 1.4m on a cfd. Presume around the 120p level.

We might be leaving that behind this week.

[bennytheball] 10/10/2016 11:48

Music to my ears :-)

[treble in 1999] 10/10/2016 11:42

Think if it clears 122 then 140 next stop.

[treble in 1999] 10/10/2016 11:41

Relentless buying since Thursday through to today.
They say no smoke without fire
Can't be far away from a deal now. Fingers crossed it's a good one for cmbn.

[bennytheball] 10/10/2016 11:07

Hi treble. Our bit?

I think the article just focuses on Priory. Seems to me one reason CMBN share price is tracking back up is the likelihood there is more interest at present because of the possibilities of private equity doing something creative with the rump of Priory that's being sold off and the bit of Cambrian they are saying is their preferred option to sell in order to pay back the banks. I'm assuming there must be synergies in terms of business growth and cost improvements from putting the two together.

[treble in 1999] 10/10/2016 10:29

Interesting. Can't see the full article.
Is it saying if priory sell their hospitals they are then in a position to buy our bit or all of us

[bennytheball] 07/10/2016 21:16

So CMBN share price motoring back up as it pursues a 'preferred option' to sell its healthcare division just as Priory lining up a deal to sell off a bunch of hospitals... A sign of deals coming together?

[leeson31] 06/10/2016 10:51

120p

hxxp://www.wkrb13.com/markets/1755192/cambian-group-plc-cmbn-earns-add-rating-from-numis-securities-ltd.html

Cambian Group PLC (LON:CMBN)‘s stock had its “add” rating restated by investment analysts at Numis Securities Ltd in a note issued to investors on Wednesday. They presently have a GBX 120 ($1.57) price objective on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd’s price objective would indicate a potential upside of 15.11% from the stock’s previous close.
Other equities research analysts have also issued research reports about the company. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reissued a “neutral”; rating and set a GBX 119 ($1.55) price target on shares of Cambian Group PLC in a research note on Friday, July 15th. Canaccord Genuity boosted their price target on Cambian Group PLC from GBX 95 ($1.24) to GBX 118 ($1.54) and gave the stock a “speculative buy” rating in a research note on Friday, September 30th. Five analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and one has issued a buy rating to the company’s stock. The company currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of GBX 104.67 ($1.37).

Cambian Group PLC (LON:CMBN) opened at 108.50 on Wednesday. Cambian Group PLC has a 52-week low of GBX 48.25 and a 52-week high of GBX 290.00. The stock’s market capitalization is GBX 196.16 million. The stock’s 50 day moving average price is GBX 86.26 and its 200 day moving average price is GBX 68.45.



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chart to me shows 150p area due course...