Cambian Share Discussion Threads

[bennytheball] 17/5/2017 09:49

So basically, hold until the announcement following end of H1, probably sometime in July, and quite possible for something like 30 days thereafter...

[treble in 1999] 12/5/2017 17:06

Benny

I suspect they will announce that at the same time. Divi payable say up to 30 days later

[bennytheball] 11/5/2017 15:42

I read it like that too. Still Wondering what's the latest date you have to hold the shares until, in order to benefit...

[abriefhistoryofthyme] 11/5/2017 11:58

The CMBN Financial Year coincides with the calendar year. The results announced for 2016 contains the following statement:-

Further to our announcement on 5 December 2016, the Group now intends to increase the return of capital to shareholders from £40 million to £50 million from the net proceeds of the disposal. Having taken advice and consulted with major shareholders, the Board has determined that the best way of effecting the return of capital is by way of a special dividend. This is still subject to a number of conditions, including creation of sufficient distributable reserves and final Board approval, which is expected to be announced by the end of the first half of 2017 and paid thereafter.


Implying a payout in July, maybe early August.

[bennytheball] 11/5/2017 09:44

Any idea what the cut off date is likely to be to benefit from this? Probably need to sell a trenche in the next few months and trying to figure out whether I can wait...

[abriefhistoryofthyme] 26/4/2017 07:56

Looks like distribution will be upped to about 27pps.

[treble in 1999] 20/4/2017 12:16

Has anyone any idea how we might be trading.

At 6 months ended June 16 occupancy rate was 75%, turnover 95.7m EBITDA 9.3m. 2015 74%, 81.4m, 12.6m

If occupancy has risen, which you expect, then turnover must rise. Difficult to get an angle on the precise numbers, but say annual turnover was £200m on 1350 places(75% 0f 1792), about 150k per place (some will be 5k per week). If we increase occupancy to say 90%, then turnover should be in the region of ££250m.
Cambian have gone through huge change, so I would expect profit levels to be increased due to efficiency savings and delivery.
If half year June 15 was £12.6m, this repeated annually would be £25m. turnover would be up £60m, so ebitda circular £33m. Not sure what PE would be applied, but it certainly seems the current valuation of £280m maybe somewhat low, considering all the capital assets held.Adult services raked in £377m.
Now back to a growth company, in my view currently about 25% below value( seems Griffiths & co agree)

Now advice intended and DYOR

[treble in 1999] 23/3/2017 08:31

Anyone think Griffiths might be considering a takeover or merger strategy

[treble in 1999] 22/2/2017 17:51

Someone's buying.

This is still undervalued. Divi coming. 21p on 145 is not a bad return.
6-8p a share and growing. 3 years down the line say 15p.10% per annum. Should be £2 by now.

[treble in 1999] 10/2/2017 10:41

Commerzbank in, Kabouter reducing.

These guys obviously see value at these prices. Kabouter make over 100% in 8 months

[treble in 1999] 09/2/2017 17:26

Griffiths picked up another 4.3m shares and 700k on CFD. Now 18%.

Spreadex have over 5% now.

£5m divi for Griffiths coming, and possibly another 3m shares with it.

Are we going to see a bid, or is he just investing??

[treble in 1999] 07/2/2017 14:18

Expecting the French to be the seller. Drop of Euro to $/£ is warping their returns.

At least they'll get some euros back now.

[treble in 1999] 21/1/2017 10:41

Griffiths still adding at 148

Spreadex need shares for more positions

All looking good and presume board getting on with it.

[leeson31] 17/1/2017 15:55

this and tri, and srp - pefect charts...

[bennytheball] 17/1/2017 14:15

What a lovely graph :-)

[treble in 1999] 10/1/2017 18:18

French getting nervous on the sterling investment. Another reduction in their holding.
They're still in profit though.

[treble in 1999] 09/1/2017 12:46

Mrs may talking about expanding child care today, putting in more money etc

Should be good for CMBN going forward.

Griffiths seems to think so, probable takeover once they hit a certain number of clients/occupants.

[treble in 1999] 06/1/2017 16:51

Care 123

The contract is likely to be irreversible. Little consequence to cambian, they banked £359m after costs.

Child services is not just about fostering, care etc includes schooling etc

Look at new ceo and say she's not up to it.

[care123] 06/1/2017 16:34

And this is unlikely to help...

[care123] 06/1/2017 16:32

Hey I'm not an expert in markets, just commissioning. Why do local authorities not have significant bargaining power? They have started fixing how much they will pay for the service in the south west with others likely to follow. If the price you submit is over a prescribed amount, your tender will not be considered. Specialist fostering is the area that will see significant growth - particularly with new service offerings following the merger between NFA and Acorn Care and Education. Whilst I agree Cambian's foster care services will grow, the residential side is likely to continue to be a key problem

[leeson31] 06/1/2017 15:25

looks like turning up now too..

[treble in 1999] 06/1/2017 15:24

Griffiths adding 950 k and 3 million more on his cfd.

Must be very very confident of something

[multibagger] 01/1/2017 20:12

Care,

The services that CMBN will be delivering in Children's services are very niche with extremely high barriers to entry and virtually a captive market - state does not have any significant bargaining power. Though social care has borne massive budgetary cuts, the market segment addressed by CMBN is price agnostic imho (due to lack of significant alternative providers) and children needs are too complex to be managed in an alternative setting such as the community.

CMBN on my radar once again....

[treble in 1999] 01/1/2017 12:40

Care123

But Cambian are in foster care also.

And doing quite nicely from it.

My view is the company is not quite starting again, but its strategy is clear and its focused. The new CEO is child focused, and their customer (the state) is reasonably happy with their product. I am sure they keep re-engineering the product adapting to the market.

21p dividend not really priced in yet.

[hmt] 01/1/2017 11:43

Care, lol, yes definetly priced to go under! NOT!definetly NOT the view of the market or the company!, get real!.