Cambian Share Discussion Threads

[darkcloudcover] 11/11/2016 16:58

Gave up my position today at 124. Felt hanging out for any more on 54p was just being plain greedy. You can imagine how I felt an hour later when it hit 129!!

Bids in by the 18th apparently

[treble in 1999] 11/11/2016 16:09

Been stuck in this range for a month or so, is this the breakout pre the news

[bennytheball] 11/11/2016 15:38

butchdogg, sorry you didn't stay a few more days...
Good luck though :-)

[butchdogg] 10/11/2016 16:06

Have sold out at b/e.

Not expecting anything negative from the company. just balancing my portfolio. Something feels odd with the mkt and i'm expecting a drop to come. macro view. And Aim stocks and anything with a poor balance sheet could get battered.

Sure i'll see you all on other threads.

BD

[butchdogg] 10/11/2016 11:12

hard to ignore the pick up in volume here today.

[darkcloudcover] 10/11/2016 09:50

Treble, your £2 prediction tally's up nicely with this report. A consensus that the company is undervalued by quite a way.....hxxps://simplywall.st/LSE:CMBN/cambian-group#_=_

On a side note, anyone buy into a biotech recently? 15-20% gains yesterday!! Months of Clinton suppression on the sector from the drug price cap talk, looks like it's all completely reversing ;-)

[butchdogg] 10/11/2016 09:24

its un crossing. Auction trade.

Always printed at 16;35

essentially a collection of all spare trades left over after the close.


i've never found any statistical edge over wether it appears as a buy or a sell.


in other news, someone has purchased a couple decent sized lumps today, which has firmed the bid

[bennytheball] 10/11/2016 08:34

what does a UT trade mean?

[butchdogg] 10/11/2016 08:12

treble that was a UT trade.

[treble in 1999] 09/11/2016 20:56

Someone bought 103000 at the close!!! Griffiths???

Back to valuations, if 400m is for the adult, then the banks are paid off, leaving the child division growing with an annual profit of circa 20m.Using the surplus from the sale, and adding a little more borrowing, this must surely increase that capacity at least 2 fold.
To support this we had 2942 beds at the half year report, of which 1802 were child, stay with me here, that should mean adult was just over 1100.
Occupancy was only 75%. If that could be increased to 90%, we already have another 20% profit increase. 18m now becomes £22m.
Double the capacity and looking forward we could be on for 40-50m profit. Current cap is £220m.
Its a risk, but very doable.
I still think £2 is on the cards by spring. But if the whole lot is sold now, surely its way beyond 120p.

No advice intended and DYOR

[darkcloudcover] 09/11/2016 10:42

Is the 400m figure not a valuation of the whole company? Cambian's EBITDA will only be around £40+m so the 400m figure would put it at 10x the company as a WHOLE (consistent with previous sales of Alpha (10x) and Priory (11x) in recent times).

If that is the case, will the debt even be covered by the sale, assuming adults worth around £228m of the full £400m....(going on H1 figures 43/57 split)

This is all new to me so could have it all wrong!

[butchdogg] 09/11/2016 09:27

Just adult side.

[treble in 1999] 09/11/2016 09:17

Darkie
Is that 400m for company ie everything or just the adult side.

[butchdogg] 08/11/2016 16:01

and it hasn't dropped.

Someone absorbing?

[darkcloudcover] 08/11/2016 15:58

Everybody seems positive and talking about increasing their holding with the news of BC, UHS and possibly Centerbridge lining up for the bid together with a £400m valuation figure, yet there's 300k on the sell side today....?

[treble in 1999] 04/11/2016 12:46

I think a deal is going to be struck, the length of time its taking suggests none or more than one interested party. Substantial property portfolio, varied mix by the sound of it, so DD probably takes a little longer.

Point taken and I'll shorten my stops.

[butchdogg] 04/11/2016 12:37

treb,

All buys are matched with sells.

Who knows whats going to happen, anyone who says different is probably not telling the truth.

just make sure that if a deal isn't struck you can handle the downside.

[treble in 1999] 04/11/2016 12:29

All a little clearer now, and I presume while their in that process they can sell some as well.

Probably why the price is being held where it is.

When the review is completed, what are the chances that a full blown bid is being planned, at say 30% from here??

[leeson31] 04/11/2016 12:22

probly an institution who have DMA and their costs will be a fixed amount per quarter, thus they can do any 'AT' sets book DMA trades virtually for a negligible cost, thus you sometimes see minute trade sizes.

[treble in 1999] 04/11/2016 12:20

so thats how the stock building has been going on, as you hardly see their purchases

[butchdogg] 04/11/2016 12:18

just Algo-order filling, trebs.

Can obviously execute at very low cost.

[treble in 1999] 04/11/2016 12:08

i just don't get the share trading. someone just bought 3 @£1.2277, £3.69. Dealing charges ???

What am I missing here.

Cheers

Treble

[treble in 1999] 31/10/2016 17:15

Financier De l'echiquie now over 5%

Whose next to announce an increase, not me as I'm still under 3%.

[darkcloudcover] 28/10/2016 11:41

Thanks Benny. Treble, I spotted it in feb during that incredible 40% hike in a month! Out of all the stocks i've been watching, I can't believe it rebounds so much! I originally got in when it was rising fast (at 72), but then got out on the free fall post covenants breach news (at 76). Still thinking it was a sound bet for another climb into the 80's and great value if I could get a new position in the low 50's, I watched it for a good while and jumped back in when it momentarily hit 52.....I certainly didn't expect 125 so quickly though, which is why i'm tempted to exit now (but it's hard to ignore Griffiths' ever-expanding holding, and he must know more than most). I have several clients from the mental health sector (via my graphic design and print business) including local authorities and a well known national dementia charity. From what they talk about re explosive increases in diagnosis, this is a very interesting sector.