Caledonia Mining Share Discussion Threads

[serratia] 15/9/2016 10:55

SteMiS,

As I don't hold shares in this company I don't know what news is out there already. I spent time talking to the Chairman and FD (?).My initial thoughts were Zimbabwe so stay clear but that's not an issue. Unemployment is 90%+ and they employ a lot of local people so no unrest. The amount of gold they produce each month can be carried in a suitcase. They drive to the SA border with no problems but once over the border it's big security on route to Joberg. Equipment repairs etc are no problem - a short drive from SA. Zimbabwe is short of $ but they have no problems so far getting money out of the country. There's more on the country issues but I came away realising it's not the problem that I had assumed.
On the mine they are expanding to new depths below 750m as there's more gold to be mined. They plan to move from 40k oz to 80k oz. They have a vertical mine unlike the S African mines so costs lower. The SA mines go outwards at depth and the weight of rock above them on long runs means a lot of expensive supports. They use timber as it fails slowly, concrete/steel just snaps. The timber supports close in 3 weeks from installation. Vertical mines as per CMCL don't have that problem. Costs are also lower as the rock is old so no big cooling costs. It's 24 c at the face. Temperature control is a big cost for the SA miners.
Looking forward as well as the expansion they're looking at acquisitions, they won't touch SA too many problems but would be happy to add in Zimbabwe.
They like the gold price increase but on a cost basis they can handle any price falls so quite relaxed on that front. They gave production costs which I have somewhere in my notes.
If you have questions I'll see if I can dig out any answers from memory/notes.

[stemis] 15/9/2016 09:35

What was said?

[serratia] 14/9/2016 23:13

Good presentation at Proactives tonight.

[the stigologist] 14/9/2016 17:46

fair enough, CMCL definitely in a sweet spot of having achieved operational consistency and real shareholder returns and thus deserving of premium rating right now

[338] 14/9/2016 17:18

Hello Stigo,

I think the profit margin of CMCL is much higher than ASA because the cash cost for CMCL is under almost 30% lower than ASA. so, ASA will struggle if the gold price suddenly drop to under $1100/oz

In regards to producing gold CMCL will ramp it up to 60-65k in 2017 and then 80k in 2018. I believe the share price will explode if they can confirm that the reserve under 1100 meters is enough to produce at 80k+ for 20 years or so

Financially CMCL also healthier (no debt, nice dividend, etc) and CMCL has only circa 52 millions shares in the market comparing huge number of shares of ASA


However, both enjoying a good run at the moment so let's just enjoy it together.

Cheers
338

[the stigologist] 14/9/2016 15:05

The Stigologist14 Sep '16 - 10:21 - 855 of 858 0 0 Edit

An announcement of ASA Gold IPO would be huge news

Imagine if they list it in China !

CMCL is producing 40-50k oz p.a. in Zimbabwe and is valued at £60m

ASA Gold producing 80k+ p.a. could be valued at £120m by itself ?

You could be looking at a 5 bag just on the Gold assets

[the stigologist] 14/9/2016 15:04

What do you think of ASA ?

[338] 14/9/2016 15:01

few trades at offered price of $2.05 (118p) in Canada

[338] 13/9/2016 22:00

closed at Canada $2.05 is equal to 118p for CMCL ... nice one

[338] 13/9/2016 15:02

CALVF in Nasdaq is now US$1.52 or equal to CMCL of 115p .... L2 shows that it will take a daily average volume to break US$1.60 or 120p if buyer > seller

moving upwards soon :)... don't miss the boat

[qs99] 09/9/2016 13:30

big old jump up today, anyone know why?

[338] 08/9/2016 07:18

Ignore the Fed Hype, Gold Prices To Rise – Gerald Celente

Wednesday September 07, 2016 14:25
The way market participants are pricing in U.S. rate hikes seems to be following a similar pattern as it did in June, according to one longtime trend forecaster, and if history repeats itself, gold stands to gain. “[J]ust as we had forecast back in June that there would be no interest-rate hike despite Yellen’s statement to expect one ‘in the coming months,’ so too we forecast no rate hike until after the U.S. presidential election… if at all this year,” notes Gerald Celente, publisher of the Trends Journal. Gold continues to be sensitive to shifting rate-hike expectations, however, since the weak jobs data from last Friday, prices have recovered. Markets are pricing in an 18% chance of a rate hike in September, and December Comex gold futures settled the day at $1,349.20 an ounce, relatively flat on the day. However, Celente said that investors need to ignore the “Fed hype” and reiterated that gold will be in a strong bull market. “While eight years of massive global central-bank quantitative easing and low-interest rate/cheap-money schemes have boosted equity markets, dismal Gross Domestic Product, wage and productivity data prove central-bank policies have failed to generate true economic growth,” he said. “Thus we maintain our forecast for equity market volatility and a strong bull market for gold when prices stabilize above $1,400 per ounce.”

[338] 08/9/2016 07:15

Gold Market Not Factoring In Sept. Rate Hike; Metal Looks For Catalyst - Peter Hug
Sep 07, 2016
Guest(s): Peter Hug Director, Global Trading, Kitco Metals

Gold and silver prices ended weaker Wednesday, after gains that pushed both metals to three-week highs overnight. Where do the metals go from here? Kitco’s global trading director Peter Hug joins Kitco News to talk about gold and silver’s recent price action. The metals have been trading in relation to shifting rate hike expectations but Hug says he doesn’t see the Federal Reserve making a move in September. ‘I don’t believe the gold market is even factoring in a September rate increase. If the Fed surprises the market and does go a quarter-point in September, I do think you will get a selloff in gold,’ he said. ‘I consider that selloff though to be a buying opportunity.’

[338] 07/9/2016 08:11

CALVF = $1.49 in Nasdaq and Canada $190 equal to CMCL = 110p .... moving upwards soon

[338] 06/9/2016 15:43

the gold price is breaking $1340 / ounce

[338] 06/9/2016 14:40

CALVF = $1.46 in Nasdaq equal to CMCL = 109p .... moving upwards soon

[338] 02/9/2016 16:32

The Real Reason Gold Is Up 25% In 2016
Friday September 02, 2016 11:12
(Kitco News) - Precious metals are a top performing asset in 2016. Here is a quick snapshot of gold and silver performance versus other major asset classes around the globe year to date.

Gold futures + 25%

Silver futures + 39%

S&P 500 Index + 6.72%

10-Year Treasury Yield + 1.60%

10-Year German Bond - 0.5%

US dollar index -3.39%

China's Shanghai Composite Index -13.4%

Japan Nikkei Stock Average - 11.1%

Europe Stoxx 50 - 7.7%

Sao Paulo Bovespa (Brazil) + 34.3%

Dax – Germany - 1.9%

CAC 40 – France - 4.3%
Performance data through Sept. 2.

Question: What is behind the massive outperformance in gold and silver in 2016?

Answer: Uncertainty

Uncertainty is the main driver for gold buyers this year, and that encompasses a great deal of macro-economic, monetary and political concerns. Here is a short list of factors that have unsettled global money managers worldwide in 2016.

The shift to negative interest rate environment. It has been estimated that nearly 500 million people live in countries with negative interest rate policies, which represent nearly 25% of global GDP. Global central bankers have turned to the negative interest rate experiment out of desperation and a last resort effort to turbo-charge sluggish, and debt-heavy advanced economies. What will the repercussions be? No one really knows = Uncertainty.

The US President Election. Recent polls show the presidential election race in the United States is tightening, with Clinton and Trump nearly neck and neck in some surveys. The stock market, economy and businesses do not like uncertainty. This is not the type of environment where businesses move forward with high levels of new investment in infrastructure, technology and hiring. Businesses hunker down, sit on cash and move into defensive positions amid uncertainty. Presidential election outcome and market impact: Uncertain.

Will The Fed Hike Rates In 2016? The latest round of U.S. jobs data underperformed, which has derailed expectations that the September Fed meeting is "live" for an interest rate hike. At this point, market analysts and policy makers are pointing to the December meeting as the likely date –wait for it –for the one and only interest rate hike in 2016. Wrap your head around that. The only and only rate increase in 2016 –if it actually materializes.

The current fed funds rate has only been marginally lifted off the zero-bound level, with the December 2015 interest rate bump of .25 basis points.

December is a long way off in economic, political and market terms. A lot could happen. Don't bet on a December rate hike. Interest rate hike in 2016? Uncertain.

Will The U.S. Slip Into Recession Before Monetary Policy Is Normalized? The odds are increasing that the answer to this question is yes, simply due to cycles and time. The current expansion cycle is old and long in the tooth. The average length of a U.S. expansion cycle is 69.5 months. The U.S. economy is currently in its 87th month of "expansion." What will the Fed do then? Negative rates, helicopter money, more quantitative easing? Uncertain

Brexit. While the initial ramifications from the unexpected Brexit vote have been muted on the global financial markets. The true economic and market impact has yet to materialize as the long and drawn out exit procedures must be followed. Impact: Uncertain.

Geopolitical Unknowns. These always loom large in our modern day society and could emerge from many points on the globe. Gold has proven time and time again to be a safe-haven amid military, political and economic duress. Geopolitics ahead: Uncertain.
Gold investors turn to the time honored investment vehicle as a traditional store of value and wealth. Physical gold buyers know and understand the owning the yellow metal has advantages over stocks and bonds. It has tangible value. You can own it and store it in your home. You can take it with you if you need to.

Uncertainty has been a great underlying fundamental support to the gold market in 2016, and that isn't going away anytime soon. How much higher could gold go? Uncertain. There's a lot of fodder ahead.

By Kira Brecht, Kitco.com

[338] 24/8/2016 07:41

- central bank policies are going to “end in tears,”
- the best way for investors to protect themselves is through gold but not paying dividends
- so the smartest way is to buy gold shares that gives you a good dividend yield
- Caledonia is one of them... don't miss the boat :)






Tuesday August 23, 2016 16:58
(Kitco News) - Widely known Fed critic and Wall Street pundit Jim Grant says that central bank policies are going to “end in tears,” and the best way for investors to protect themselves is through gold.

“I’m very bullish on gold and I’m very bullish on gold mining shares,” the publisher of the popular “Grant’s Interest Rate Observer” he said Tuesday. “That’s because I think that the world will lose faith in the PhD standard in monetary management.”

However, Grant added that the yellow metal may not be the “best” for everyone.

“Gold is money and money is sterile, as Aristotle would remind us. It does not pay dividends or earn income. So keep in mind that gold is not a conventional investment,” he explained. “But to me, gold is a very timely way to invest in monetary disorder.”

The yellow metal has been under pressure as the Federal Reserve wavers on when the next interest rate hike will be. As expectations rise, the price of the metal falls and has been since late last week. December Comex gold futures last traded at $1,342.80 an ounce, down 0.04% on the day.

Grant echoed this message to Kitco News back in February, when he said gold would likely move higher in response to the “wrong-headed notions and policies of our central bankers.”

[338] 24/8/2016 07:05

Canada $2.00 = 117p

UK MM's will adjust the price accordingly

[338] 24/8/2016 07:03

Nasdaq US$1.49 = 113p

[338] 23/8/2016 23:08

Climbing up parabolically

[338] 19/8/2016 21:23

Nasdaq US$1.38 & Canada $1.78 equal to 105p - 106p per share in the UK... Monday morning opening price will be interesting :)

[338] 19/8/2016 10:01

More and more Fund Management Companies build up their gold position anticipating the market breakdown






....
The fund also has been building up its gold position "in a conditional format," to ebb losses "should prices fall back from their recent strength."

[338] 19/8/2016 08:35

The closing price in Nasdaq was US$1.3122 and exchange rate £/$ is 1.31

So, the mid price is due to be lifted up to £1 :)