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CNE Capricorn Energy Plc

140.20
0.00 (0.00%)
19 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Capricorn Energy Plc LSE:CNE London Ordinary Share GB00BRJ7R218 ORD 735/143P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 140.20 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
139.80 142.20
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs USD 228.9M USD -51M USD -0.6934 -2.01 102.53M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:25:00 O 5,000 139.56 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
14/3/202417:01CAPRICORN ENERGY 202
09/10/202300:21CAIRN - 2010 & BEYOND, GREENLAND, INDIA, etc7,716
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06/5/202120:21Indian government makes a move to protect overseas assets-

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Capricorn Energy (CNE) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
07:30:02139.565,0006,978.00O
07:29:29139.565,0006,978.00O
2024-03-18 17:30:14138.8529,94641,580.62O
2024-03-18 17:28:31137.885,0386,946.44O
2024-03-18 17:20:29139.202,1122,939.93O

Capricorn Energy (CNE) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 18/3/2024 08:20 by Capricorn Energy Daily Update
Capricorn Energy Plc is listed in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CNE. The last closing price for Capricorn Energy was 140.20p.
Capricorn Energy currently has 73,549,896 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Capricorn Energy is £102,528,555.
Capricorn Energy has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -2.01.
This morning CNE shares opened at -
Posted at 26/2/2024 14:53 by last of the mohicans
Hi xxnjr, :)

Glad you looked in :)

I'm not sure what to make of today's announcement, it doesn't sound very encouraging at all, sounds like they have lots of unresolved issues still!

It's going to be really interesting to see in a month's time how much money they have actually received from the government of Egypt since September last year & how high the outstanding amount is compared to before, not to mention the overdue amount.

The only good thing happening (well assuming there isn't more bad news to come to knock the share price even more) is the fact the buy-back program has been able to buy-in a decent amount of stock each day recently.

Still nearly £4M to be spent which means there currently on course to have around 89.5M shares in issue when it completes - but even at the current rate of purchases that's mid to late June!

Market Cap is only just above that £100M mark.

Good Luck
LOTM
Posted at 25/2/2024 11:41 by xxnjr
Hi Last of the Mohicans,

Haven't looked in here for a while. Thanks for your continued analysis and running commentary. Walvis Bay was probably a tug refuelling stop + maybe a bit of R&R. BP's tug towed 'GTA FPSO' and 'Gimi' FLNG both stopped over at Walvis enroute for Senegal for hopefully a 3Q/24 start up which would be about 9 months late as pipelay vessel failed on that development.

CNE production as you say seems below previous guidance. Apache, or APA as they now call themselves, are no.1 onshore in Egypt (220K boepd gross) and their 4Q mentioned some constraints in availability of workover rigs in country to perform the recompletions/workovers required to mitigate decline.

Without more info from CNE it's difficult to say if decline is due to inherent reservoir issues or whether this is just a badly managed operation? Apache seem to be able to maintain their production fairly flat (on plateau) and have done so for years despite the in country headwinds.
Posted at 20/2/2024 22:27 by last of the mohicans
Wow that was an awful auction for anyone still in the stock.

Hopefully the buy-back picked up at least 50,000 shares for the day with an average price of say £1.13

The 2 groups shorting the shares are sure raking in the £'s at the moment, the share price decline seems to have accelerated of late - no doubt in part because of them.

Market cap is down to virtually £100M now (a touch over £103 as it stands) who would have thought it.

So tempting to start picking up a few shares now at this price, but where is the sign of a bottom ? is £1 or less achievable/realistic ......

GLA
LOTM
Posted at 07/2/2024 18:42 by churchill2
Hi LOTM
Thanks for the update. The share price is extremely depressing from the high hopes we had just a few months ago. Senegal is a non starter so the progress of the boat does not matter to shareholders in my opinion. Am I correct to assume Goldman are increasing their stake in Capricorn above fifteen per cent which seems odd considering the current situation. As I have said before Shell certainly saw us coming when they sold us this bag of worms.





The location of the boat does not really matter as Senegal is a non starter
Posted at 05/1/2024 04:13 by last of the mohicans
Capricorn got a massive downgrade yesterday, very surprised the share price didn't react more.

Jefferies cuts Capricorn Energy to 'hold' (buy) - price target 160 (225) pence

----------------------------

xxnjr,

The Léopold Sédar Senghor is travelling much faster than that, seems to be averaging around 9.5 knots & is already over half way to Madagascar, will likely pass the southern edge of it by next Monday.

I'd say at this rate it will reach Senegal around the 1st week of Feb.

What needs to be done with it after that to get it fully ready for use is anyone's guess.

GLA
LOTM
Posted at 28/10/2023 17:16 by last of the mohicans
Year End Prediction

30th June net cash position was $176M less the Roughly $100M special dividend that has now been paid.

Net receivables were $148M with $113M of it overdue.

2nd half capex in Egypt for development & production was put at $40 - $50M
G&A for the 2nd half I'm estimating as $30M weighted to Q3.

Share buy-back program $14M in the 2nd half (although I don't think it will be finished by year end).

Net interest payable on Egypt Loan $5M after allowing for interest receivable on Capricorn cash balances.

There is around $20.3M in the accounts due to be paid within 12 month's I'm guessing its payable around the end of the year / early Jan & is effectively offset by a matching cash balance, so all we'll see is a reduction in outstanding debt & a lower overall cash balance.

There is also $25M payable to Shell in Jan 2024.

The only other cash cost will be OPEX - I've calculate that at $13 per net boe. So on 6,000 bopd & 7,000 boed nat gas & 184 days that works out at $31.1M (1st half cost was $27.5M for comparison in the accounts)

Only other thing on the subtraction side is depletion of reserves, but that's an accounting number affecting the assets of the company not a cash number. The 1st half was down as $55.1M so I'll be using $60M as my number for this.

So total 2nd half cash expenditure is expected to be between $120.1M & $130.1M depending on the actual D&P number.

On the income side, I've estimated Brent oil to average $88 per barrel for the half & the discount for Egypt to be $2 per barrel taking it down to $86.

Thus oil income will be $95M (86 x 6000 x 184).

Working out the nat gas number is sadly more complex. Capricorn use a number of 5.6 to convert there gas to boe rather than the standard figure of 6. Which means it has a higher BTU number than 1055 per MCF. After much debate I've decided to price it at 6x$2.95 rather than 5.6x$2.95 although it doesn't really matter that much as the difference over the 6 months is only $1.5M

So nat gas income will be @ $22.75M

This gives us a total income on paper of $117.75M

I say on paper because although its earned in the current half year, payments are always in arrears. So for Oil production in Oct the cash isn't actually due to be paid until 1st Dec & Gas not until the following month. So the easiest way to think about it is payment being a quarter behind actual production.

So the 2nd half would normal get the income earned in Q2 & Q3 which in this case means the lowest oil prices for the year so far in May & June being in the calculation from a cash received perspective.

Bearing this in mind I'm going to use an overall number of $100M from the cash side of things with regard to income.

The next important question that needs to be addressed regards the overdue amounts, has this got worse/better/or stayed the same from what happened in the 1st half of the year.

I don't think they will have improved yet, so I've gone with a similar deterioration to that of the 1st half, ie a $50M increase in both net receivables & overdue amounts. Offset by a $20M increase in payables (the figures were $51M, $47M & $21M in the half year accounts). So effectively a further $30M deterioration.

Now to put it all together............


Cash of $76M + income in cash of $70M ($100M - $30M) = $146M
Less expenditure of between $120.1M to $130.1M

Leaving us with a net cash balance of between $15.9M & $25.9M

Plus net receivables of $215.75M ($148M + $50M + $17.75M) with $163M of it overdue ($113M + $50M) & net payables of $56M ($36M + $20M)

Now there is a scenario on these numbers where the company doesn't have the physical cash to pay the $25M to Shell in Jan 2024 although there should be payments coming into us on 1st of Jan (or close to then) of over $20M which would alleviate the problem. However that scenario only exists if Capricorn hasn't taken mitigating action before then like reducing the D&P spend / suspending the rest of what's left of the buy-back for a few weeks etc, or borrowing $15M max for 3 month's.

I'm sure they will take the appropriate action as needs be because Cheiron & Capricorn will simply not let the outstanding balances continue to build up without reducing there D&P spend or pushed it back until cash is coming in to match it, as its not in there interests to do so especially with Cherion being the largest Independent O&G in Egypt with many more licences than ours to deal with (fund) as well.

Our G&A expenses will be down to just $2M a month max by then as well & there will be a large incoming payment from Waldorf before April to make the cash bank balances look very rosy again.

Having dealt with the potential downside lets look at the upside of where things are.

I've used the max expenditure numbers in these calculations but I've not done so on the revenue side, oil production by late December should be nearer 7,000 bopd rather than the 6,000 I've used for example.

So our net position at the end of June was $186M ($76M cash + $112M net receivables [$148M - $36M of payables] ) of near liquid assets.

At the end of December we're looking at near liquid assets of between $175.65M & $185.65M ( with a minimum of $15.9M to $25.9M of it in cash + $159.75M net receivables [$215.75M - $56M of payables] ) Now obviously it would be preferable for the cash figure to be higher & the net receivables number lower by the corresponding amount.

In other words we're literally back to where we were at the end of June, only having spent another $40 - 50M on D&P that has increased our production rates ahead of 2024, $14M on the share buy-back & a large chunk of the $30M on G&A right sizing the business for the future.

Which makes for a very bright outlook for 2024, even if we were to ignore the Waldorf payment completely.

We'll have higher production & lower G&A costs, & as some of those net receivables get paid to us, they'll be a lot of room for dividend payments.

In Q1 of 2024 Expense's for example will come to around $64.5M ($25M Shell, $15M D&P, $15.5M OPEX, $6M G&A, $3M Debt Int).

Yet using 7,000 bopd & 6,000 boe of nat gas, revenue will come to $65.5M ( $54.75M Oil, $9.75M gas) using the same average prices of $86 for Egypt oil & $2.95 for gas.

Now you're saying where's the spare cash for ordinary dividends on those numbers !

Well in Q2 Expense's will drop to $43.5M ($20M D&P, $15.5M OPEX, $5M G&A, $3M Debt Int) & that's with increasing D&P by another $5M for the quarter. While income should actually increase due to production increases from the cash invested in Q1, but even leaving it unchanged we'll be $22.5M better off, meaning that Capricorn should be able to pay an interim dividend in Sept/Oct of around $15M easily. Translating that into a per-share number depends on what happens to the Waldorf payment & whether that was used to give us another special dividend & share consolidation before then. If it was then we'd be looking at around $0.20 per share for the interim dividend rather than say $0.15

As for the final dividend for 2024, well that would all depend on what the oil price does during the year, but if it did average out at a price similar to this year's then I wouldn't be surprised to see $30M being paid out ie potentially $0.40 per share (in May 2025) & $0.60 in total in ordinary dividends for the year to 31st Dec 2024 & that's just the beginning of these significant payouts.

The potential 2025 payment's from Waldorf & Woodside ahead of that final dividend announcement could have a significant bearing on the per share amount's. It will depend on the share price at that time as to how many shares would be cancelled from another consolidation, but I can see the potential for Capricorn to have just 55M shares in issue by then(90.55M end of 2023 to 75M in 2024), thus the final dividend payout would be around $0.55 per share instead of $0.40 which is a massive difference.

LOTM
Posted at 04/10/2023 08:25 by last of the mohicans
Just a reminder for everyone.......

The meeting to approve the Special Dividend of £0.56 per share, followed by the share consolidation of 2 new shares for every 3 existing ones is tomorrow Thursday 5th Oct.

The shares will then effectively go EX dividend at the close of business on Thursday 5th Oct. The share consolidation occurs ahead of the market opening on Friday 6th Oct.

Only this time round unlike in May ahead of the previous special dividend & share consolidation. The share price is above the balancing point. That means the gearing is in our favour this time round not against us.

The balancing point is 3 x £1.68 = £5.04 less the 3 x £0.56 dividend (£1.68) leaves you with £3.36 which when dividend by the 2 new shares would equate to a price of £1.68 each.

If the current price of £1.80 turns out to be the closing price on the 5th Oct, then the new shares should return to trading around £1.86 (£5.40-£1.68 = £3.72 / 2) to have the same market value as before.

If the share price goes higher then the gap will grow out from that £0.06 difference, if it falls it will shrink in size.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock especially for those institutions that have sold/lend for cash there voting rights to other's (all 19% of them) , which might be the reason behind the scramble for shares that looks to be occurring.

LOTM
Posted at 18/9/2023 19:38 by last of the mohicans
I thought I'd write this for anyone new here or for anyone who wasn't paying attention back in May when the company distributed $450M via a £1.15 special dividend & 70 old shares for 33 new share consolidation.

When I first looked at it the share price was around £2.25 - £2.30 a share & the share buy-back was active, which I found really strange because they were in effect over paying for the shares they were buying back!

I think someone in the company eventually picked up on that & the buy-back stopped until the share consolidation was done.

In actual fact they should have stopped it until the share price was below £2.177 & then continued again, why ?

Well the inflection point with a dividend of £1.15 & consolidation ratio of 70 to 33 works out to be £2.177.

I think examples are the best way of demonstrating it to you.

So 70 shares priced at £2.177 give a total value of &152.40 You then receive a dividend of £80.50 (£1.15*70), the ex-d price of the shares should then be £1.027 (£2.177- £1.15) multiple it by 70 & you have an equity value of £71.89. You then divide that equity value (£71.89) by 33 (new shares) & you get a price of £2.178 per share.

The consolidation ratio (70/33) means there are now only 47.14% of the shares in issue compare to before. So you have a large multiplier effect if the closing share price isn't £2.177.

If it was £2.24 instead, then the dividend is the same but the closing equity value is not £71.89 its £76.30 & when you divide that by 33 it works out at £2.312 after the consolidation. In other words the original £0.063 difference turns into one of £0.134 Which means you really wanted to still own the shares at the ex-d date because you were better off.

Conversely if the share price was £2.12 at the ex-d date, the consolidated shares should only return to market at £2.058 which makes you worse off holding them at the ex-d date you'd be better off selling out before hand & then buying them back afterwards.

-------------------------------

This time round the dividend is £0.56 & the consolidation ratio is 3 old into 2 new ones. So the inflection point is £1.68

This time the compression ratio is 66.66% so there is a lot less gearing than the last time round. So the effect isn't as dramatic as before, but it will still make a difference to your bottom line.

At an ex-d close of £1.74 the shares should return to trading at £1.77 & if its £1.62 then they should return at £1.59

--------------------------------

In May I expected the share price to rise ahead of the ex-d date that didn't happen & the share price was very weak on its return to trading.

LOTM
Posted at 14/9/2023 12:41 by last of the mohicans
taxi1,

I wasn't here when the share price was £2.50 or the 2 bids of around £2.70 a share were rejected.

I only got interested just before the £1.15 payout, so roughly the beginning of May this year.

I really like the story & what the new board are trying to achieve.

People have totally lost sight of the value here.

There were 315M shares in issue back then when they rejected £2.70 or £850M valuation for the company.

They paid out £362M (£1.15 per share) & reduced the shares in issue to 148.5M when the share price was like £2.18 a share. Which meant they effectively added £0.56 to the value of the shares that were left in issue to that previous £2.70 people had been willing to pay to buy/merge with the company.

The buyback has only enhanced that value further with 6M shares bought so far.

Now they are going to payout another £80M or £0.56 per share to reduce the number of shares in issue even further & they are doing it at an even cheaper price than before !

If you add the numbers up we will end up having 95M shares max in issue having paid out a total of £452M (362 + 80 + 10).

So if you think about it that means £400M (that someone was willing to pay previously at similar or lower oil & gas prices) is in those 95M shares ie the offer would be over £4 per share now.

The cost savings the new board are doing shows just how staggeringly badly the company was run previously. They are going to be saving roughly $50M a year in admin costs. That's a saving of $0.50 per share (post consolidation) saved going forward each year for many years to come.

Think about it, over 4 years that the current value of the company post consolidation retained for the benefit of shareholders & not needlessly waisted.

--------------------

Yes its being played by the institutions while they try to hoover up as much stock as they can. Goldman Sach's, Bank of America & possibly others have seen the potential value here & are getting as big a slice of the pie as they can.

I expect this to become a dividend stock next year (although the company's not saying that yet). In 2 years time CNE most likely will be yielding 25%+ annually on the money invested today.

Where else are you going to get such a fab return on your money .......

LOTM
Posted at 31/8/2023 13:08 by last of the mohicans
taxi1

Personally I'm not expecting too much with the half year report, given the oil price in the 1st half of the year.

Some more substantially above expectation (pre drill) new development wells would be nice.

Probably the most important bit will be how they are getting on with reducing the outstanding payments due to them in Egypt ( or at least holding them steady for now)

Then how they are going to distribute that $100M. Hopefully they do another share consolidation with it, along the lines of 3 new shares for every 4 held.

I know you'll think that's not going to do anything, well it won't immediately but come the middle of next year, you'll probably have changed your mind when you start to see how much the dividend yield is. That will then push up the share price as other investors see the value here of a significant cash-cow.

I'm also hoping they increase the size of the share buyback and actually use that cash to do it. The current one should be mopping up stock nice and cheaply right now & for some unexplained reason its not & yes it will make a big difference further down the line, getting those other 4M+ shares bought it, because that will be 4% less shares for the dividend to be shared amongst.

If you go back to the offers around the £2.70 mark, then each share bought back for under that price, increases the value of those left in issue. Yes its a kind of hidden value but its still there & growing ( the $450M payment effectively bought in 166.5M shares at £2.11 & the buyback has bought in 5.7M at roughly £2.09 on average). So that increases the hidden value from £2.70 to over £3.30 a share on the shares currently in issue.

With around 100M shares in issue following all of the above, & next years operating costs reducing by $35M. (yes that's $0.35 per share drop in annual costs).

LOTM
Capricorn Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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