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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cairn Energy Plc LSE:CNE London Ordinary Share GB00B74CDH82 ORD 231/169P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +1.80p +1.23% 148.10p 147.70p 147.80p 148.50p 145.40p 146.50p 84,364 09:45:32
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 321.7 -992.7 -153.4 - 873.07

Cairn Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 14901 to 14924 of 15125 messages
Chat Pages: 605  604  603  602  601  600  599  598  597  596  595  594  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
08/1/2019
15:14
think ill top up
nobilis
07/1/2019
16:42
You may be right, ONJohn. Fairly big volume closing auction and at the day's high. (162.5p) Disclosed shorts at and above 0.5% amount to 4.39% of shares. The shares are up from a recent low of around 140p. If the oil price holds there may be an upward squeeze on the shares, as the shorts get pressured into closing?
ed 123
04/1/2019
15:47
melt up coming
onjohn
03/1/2019
23:48
Do you really think that 25,000 bpd from the north sea with the hope of more to come from Presto is small stuff? Cairn expect first oil from Senegal in 2022, with the expectation of 40,000 bpd to Cairn. Also the company has no debt. If the India business works out that would be sensational, but they are not too bad without it.
hoper2
03/1/2019
13:01
Mexico and small stuff in UK and Norway. Nothing big as far as I can see. SNE...seems small and slow compared to Exxon in Guyana...40% non op isn't sustainable is it? Biggest prospect really is India arbitration result. They've got a better chance of winning that than striking lucky with the drill bit. And if Indians refuse to comply, British government has to step in.
hsfinch
02/1/2019
16:26
Presto, PL885, 36/1-3 shouldn't be long though Transocean Spitsbergen not moved there yet. "48 mmboe net mean resource". Not an elephant admittedly. There are some prospects in the Barents, Shenzhou (Inca) the first, though those are walruses.
rogerlin
02/1/2019
12:20
I know what you mean fiscally not that generous - but potentially really big elephants. If Mexico not that good what else have CNE got in the 'hopper'? Normally they've got a big potential high impact asset ready to drill. Serious question for discussion.
dunderheed
02/1/2019
12:00
I've posted on PMO board that Mexico optimism is overstated. Government isn't going to be friendly. Cne and pmo blocks aren't really shallow like eni. You could be disappointed.
hsfinch
02/1/2019
10:22
Wtgr I think mkt has already priced in 'potential' funding issues? The Indian thing will be win by Cairn but they'll never get the money. Senegal funding could be a little problematic and that is what is causing the lull in share price. Mexico is why I am here.
dunderheed
02/1/2019
10:19
Arbitration result for Cairn is the only positive I see this year. There's been rumours of Cairn looking at various buys but where's the money coming from? Selling down SNE or money from India? If India doesn't come through soon, I can see 125p ahead.
hsfinch
28/12/2018
11:16
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/retrospective-taxation-justified-even-us-uk-netherlands-have-done-it-says-government/articleshow/67233966.cms
rogerlin
28/12/2018
08:21
https://far.live.irmau.com/irm/PDF/2413_0/FirstphaseofFEEDcommencesonSNEdevelopmentSenegal
rogerlin
20/12/2018
07:56
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/188790/premier-oil-applies-for-north-sea-tieback-project/
rogerlin
17/12/2018
21:32
Frazboy - thanks for responding. I think Cairn has 19.2 million reserves from Catcher and PMO are looking at an upgrade of total reserves from the current 96 million. I would have thought the plateau period would have been about 3-years, but perhaps I'm being optimistic. I would happily settle for 2 and then hopefully a few more decent years until Senegal is up and running. I bought 10,000 shares the other day mainly because of their prospects, lack of debt and the outside chance India will pay off. Medium to long-term I'm just hoping they can make enough money from the UK and Norway business to get Senegal up and running without taking on board crazy amounts of debt. However, at the moment it's all about the POO.
hoper2
17/12/2018
17:39
hoper2, apologies, the number in my spreadsheet was $20/bbl Opex @ 50,000 bopd (I'm not sure exactly where that would have come from but presumably either a CNE or PMO presentation). so, assuming that they're producing at 65,000 bopd (stable production), and Opex is fixed (reasonable), then you're looking at more like $15/bbl. I believe those numbers also include the lease costs of the FPSO (in fact, the lease costs are the majority of the 'Opex') As for the plateau, I'll stick with a moderate tail off later next year, and then muuh more severe in 2020, as I have reserves, to CNE (from CNE's 2017 YE presentation), of around 18 MMBO (@YE 2017), which if they're pumping at 60k bopd per day, means CNE are producing 4.4 MMbo per year - a good rule of thumb is 30% to 40% of reserves at plateau for an oil field. I think the lease contract on the FPSO is for 7 years. On currently available data you would expect the field to cease operations thereafter but they do talk about near field opportunities.
frazboy
17/12/2018
13:11
Thanks, Frazboy and Dunderheed. Hello, Hoper2. Peel Hunt (260p) may yet revise down but, for the moment, they are in the company of UBS (280p). Jeffries have come down to 165p. I bought back in at around 160p, thinking that level priced in the negatives, and looked good when viewing the 5 year chart. History shows Cairn can quickly rise 20% or so when market sentiment shifts. I have no problem holding for a couple of years, if necessary, so should get first results of Mexico exploration in that time, plus what other progress they (hopefully) make. The shorts will have to buy back at some point, so any unexpected good news could see a good bounce in the share price. Further downside is of course possible - weak stockmarkets, economic slowdown coming in 2019. Brent oil price may slide towards $50? 2018 Has has witnessed strongly contrasting share performances between Cairn and Faroe (acknowledging takeover bid). Who would have thought in January 2018 we'd be looking at equal share prices (153p) in December? Maybe there's a good trade to sell Faroe and buy Cairn, looking for some movement back towards the norm? The above are just my rambling thoughts.
ed 123
17/12/2018
13:04
i'll dig it out hoper2
frazboy
17/12/2018
12:55
Frazboy "also the fact that Catcher has a limited plateau (1-2 years) and is high Opex ($30 per barrel at plateau), so the current lull in the OP, means the super profitable oil won't be so profitable" That seems harsh to say the least. Catcher is currently producing at around 70,000 bpd and I've not seen anything saying it has a limited plateau of only 1-2 years. Your $30 per barrel operating costs figure is far higher than I've seen quoted. The only info I have seen is less than $20 per barrel. I'm not saying your wrong, but I would love to know where you get your info from.
hoper2
17/12/2018
10:42
Exactly fraz, they've got a bit of drilling expenses coming up as well? Mexico etc which is one of the main reasons I'm here lol.
dunderheed
17/12/2018
10:30
Ed 123 - "Short selling here has risen to 4.17%..." I think the reasons in addition to those already mentioned (e.g India - no cash) are the perceived OP outlook, but also the fact that Catcher has a limited plateau (1-2 years) and is high Opex ($30 per barrel at plateau), so the current lull in the OP, means the super profitable oil won't be so profitable, and, unfortunately for CNE's holders, Cairn got into bed with Enquest for the Kraken development - that's performing significantly below expectation (current sales rate of ~30,000 bopd), so Opex is eating up more of the profit there too - and even with DC-4 online in 2019, they're still only giving 30k to 35k offtake as guidance, which means the decline will have properly set in and they'll produce say ~25k - ~30k in 2020? That missing cash flow was meant to fund (in part) Senegal and other NS developments.
frazboy
17/12/2018
09:40
Yes, they'd need to borrow more. Their RBL facility should increase when FID on SNE is made. I'm sure they'd prefer to go ahead with 20% instead of the full 40% they currently own. We should get an update next month. It normally includes guidance for the year, so maybe there'll be some indication of how they intend to finance their share of SNE? (Edit: Peel Hunt retain the 'add' recommendation and 260p target. Either the shorters or PH have got this wrong!)
ed 123
17/12/2018
09:23
They need to go to debt mkts because no India money I'd have said? The 'market' is finally realising this rather obvious scenario. By the way I'm a fan and holder of CNE if anyone thought I was de-ramping.
dunderheed
17/12/2018
09:20
Yes, lower initial cost, and Phase 1 cashflow could fund a Phase 2 development. So, potentially a big new development but they opted for a lower cost and lower risk way of getting started. Short selling here has risen to 4.17%, not huge .... but why? Any thoughts on the rationale?
ed 123
17/12/2018
09:04
Im sure Cairn is informally probing mkt.? This could be brilliant but why are they (only) targeting the lower reservoirs for development now? Surely they could produce from all available, without negatively impacting each and always best to get as much out as possible as quickly as possible? I assume want to keep size of fpso down (and hence costs?).
dunderheed
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