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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cairn Energy LSE:CNE London Ordinary Share GB00B74CDH82 ORD 231/169P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +9.00p +5.43% 174.70p 174.10p 174.50p 178.00p 167.40p 167.40p 2,507,480 16:35:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 321.7 -992.7 -153.4 - 1,029.88

Cairn Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 14876 to 14900 of 15075 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
20/12/2018
07:56
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/188790/premier-oil-applies-for-north-sea-tieback-project/
rogerlin
17/12/2018
21:32
Frazboy - thanks for responding. I think Cairn has 19.2 million reserves from Catcher and PMO are looking at an upgrade of total reserves from the current 96 million. I would have thought the plateau period would have been about 3-years, but perhaps I'm being optimistic. I would happily settle for 2 and then hopefully a few more decent years until Senegal is up and running. I bought 10,000 shares the other day mainly because of their prospects, lack of debt and the outside chance India will pay off. Medium to long-term I'm just hoping they can make enough money from the UK and Norway business to get Senegal up and running without taking on board crazy amounts of debt. However, at the moment it's all about the POO.
hoper2
17/12/2018
17:39
hoper2, apologies, the number in my spreadsheet was $20/bbl Opex @ 50,000 bopd (I'm not sure exactly where that would have come from but presumably either a CNE or PMO presentation). so, assuming that they're producing at 65,000 bopd (stable production), and Opex is fixed (reasonable), then you're looking at more like $15/bbl. I believe those numbers also include the lease costs of the FPSO (in fact, the lease costs are the majority of the 'Opex') As for the plateau, I'll stick with a moderate tail off later next year, and then muuh more severe in 2020, as I have reserves, to CNE (from CNE's 2017 YE presentation), of around 18 MMBO (@YE 2017), which if they're pumping at 60k bopd per day, means CNE are producing 4.4 MMbo per year - a good rule of thumb is 30% to 40% of reserves at plateau for an oil field. I think the lease contract on the FPSO is for 7 years. On currently available data you would expect the field to cease operations thereafter but they do talk about near field opportunities.
frazboy
17/12/2018
13:11
Thanks, Frazboy and Dunderheed. Hello, Hoper2. Peel Hunt (260p) may yet revise down but, for the moment, they are in the company of UBS (280p). Jeffries have come down to 165p. I bought back in at around 160p, thinking that level priced in the negatives, and looked good when viewing the 5 year chart. History shows Cairn can quickly rise 20% or so when market sentiment shifts. I have no problem holding for a couple of years, if necessary, so should get first results of Mexico exploration in that time, plus what other progress they (hopefully) make. The shorts will have to buy back at some point, so any unexpected good news could see a good bounce in the share price. Further downside is of course possible - weak stockmarkets, economic slowdown coming in 2019. Brent oil price may slide towards $50? 2018 Has has witnessed strongly contrasting share performances between Cairn and Faroe (acknowledging takeover bid). Who would have thought in January 2018 we'd be looking at equal share prices (153p) in December? Maybe there's a good trade to sell Faroe and buy Cairn, looking for some movement back towards the norm? The above are just my rambling thoughts.
ed 123
17/12/2018
13:04
i'll dig it out hoper2
frazboy
17/12/2018
12:55
Frazboy "also the fact that Catcher has a limited plateau (1-2 years) and is high Opex ($30 per barrel at plateau), so the current lull in the OP, means the super profitable oil won't be so profitable" That seems harsh to say the least. Catcher is currently producing at around 70,000 bpd and I've not seen anything saying it has a limited plateau of only 1-2 years. Your $30 per barrel operating costs figure is far higher than I've seen quoted. The only info I have seen is less than $20 per barrel. I'm not saying your wrong, but I would love to know where you get your info from.
hoper2
17/12/2018
10:42
Exactly fraz, they've got a bit of drilling expenses coming up as well? Mexico etc which is one of the main reasons I'm here lol.
dunderheed
17/12/2018
10:30
Ed 123 - "Short selling here has risen to 4.17%..." I think the reasons in addition to those already mentioned (e.g India - no cash) are the perceived OP outlook, but also the fact that Catcher has a limited plateau (1-2 years) and is high Opex ($30 per barrel at plateau), so the current lull in the OP, means the super profitable oil won't be so profitable, and, unfortunately for CNE's holders, Cairn got into bed with Enquest for the Kraken development - that's performing significantly below expectation (current sales rate of ~30,000 bopd), so Opex is eating up more of the profit there too - and even with DC-4 online in 2019, they're still only giving 30k to 35k offtake as guidance, which means the decline will have properly set in and they'll produce say ~25k - ~30k in 2020? That missing cash flow was meant to fund (in part) Senegal and other NS developments.
frazboy
17/12/2018
09:40
Yes, they'd need to borrow more. Their RBL facility should increase when FID on SNE is made. I'm sure they'd prefer to go ahead with 20% instead of the full 40% they currently own. We should get an update next month. It normally includes guidance for the year, so maybe there'll be some indication of how they intend to finance their share of SNE? (Edit: Peel Hunt retain the 'add' recommendation and 260p target. Either the shorters or PH have got this wrong!)
ed 123
17/12/2018
09:23
They need to go to debt mkts because no India money I'd have said? The 'market' is finally realising this rather obvious scenario. By the way I'm a fan and holder of CNE if anyone thought I was de-ramping.
dunderheed
17/12/2018
09:20
Yes, lower initial cost, and Phase 1 cashflow could fund a Phase 2 development. So, potentially a big new development but they opted for a lower cost and lower risk way of getting started. Short selling here has risen to 4.17%, not huge .... but why? Any thoughts on the rationale?
ed 123
17/12/2018
09:04
Im sure Cairn is informally probing mkt.? This could be brilliant but why are they (only) targeting the lower reservoirs for development now? Surely they could produce from all available, without negatively impacting each and always best to get as much out as possible as quickly as possible? I assume want to keep size of fpso down (and hence costs?).
dunderheed
17/12/2018
08:58
Senegalese government approves Woodside as operator and FEED commences at SNE. FAR holds 15%. It might get through the cash calls from the FEED but will it be able to meet the cash calls when FID is made (middle of next year)? Seems to me that FAR needs to sell out or down or sell some other interests. Cairn will need to decide where it will concentrate. Its share of phase 1 capital cost is estimated at $1.2 billion, spread over 2019 to 2022. That would be a bit of a stretch. FAR with its pre-emption dispute and inadequate (to stay through development) cash reserves casts a shadow here. Cairn's share price would likely benefit if FAR were to sell out of the SNE project.
ed 123
17/12/2018
08:46
Yes surprised Cairn didn't rns change of operatorship or did I miss that?
dunderheed
17/12/2018
08:44
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/6061K_1-2018-12-16.pdf Woodside's update.
rogerlin
14/12/2018
10:42
It's likely that Blackrock and others need to sell equities to meet redemptions. Weak global equity markets worry investors, some of whom want the comfort of cash.
ed 123
14/12/2018
10:04
Yes but by f all lol!!
dunderheed
14/12/2018
09:38
Holdings rns. Black rock reducing
spacedust
13/12/2018
08:12
https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/junior-eyes-woodsides-disputed-west-africa-stake-ng-b88852017z Can't find anything recent about the progress of this arbitration but CNE surely can't sell until it is resolved.
rogerlin
12/12/2018
08:48
Can't disagree with that. 40% of large non-operated asset in Africa is mad risk management. I'd sell ASAP maybe keeping a small stake say 5% to demonstrate confidence in the field. I was just saying that if they do stay in, they'll be borrowing. But progress seems slow compared with ENI and Exxon projects. Problems?
hsfinch
12/12/2018
08:31
Ta, Rogerlin. :-) It's a good reminder of the potential of Cairn's Senegal assets. Cairn should be drilling in the Gulf of Mexico next year; highly prospective. As you might have gathered, I'm back in here.
ed 123
12/12/2018
08:18
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Next-Offshore-Boom-Is-Senegal-The-New-Guyana.html
rogerlin
12/12/2018
07:48
Hsfinch. I doubt it. Re: Senegal, they have spoken of possibly selling down by at least 50%. Needs the FAR situation resolving ideally. Obviously it would have been an easier deal with oil at $80 than $60, but the share price has fallen accordingly. The way of the small explorers is to sell on (parts of) discoveries to the bigger oil cos. No reason to think that Cairn will offer up its survival to a roll of the interest rate/oil price dice.
ed 123
12/12/2018
06:32
Er...they'll be borrowing it. And they'll be joining the PMO, ENQ, TLW in the debt mountain club. Just as interest rates start to move up.
hsfinch
11/12/2018
07:55
http://www.npd.no/en/news/Drilling-permits/2018/361-3/ PL885, Presto, formerly Stjerneskudd, CNE 30%, 48mmboe net mean resource. Primary objective Agat sands, secondary objective (shallower) intra Tryggvason, don't worry if it's a big enough find it will get renamed after a famous Norwegian.
rogerlin
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