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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cairn Energy LSE:CNE London Ordinary Share GB00B74CDH82 ORD 231/169P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.50p -1.49% 165.70p 166.30p 166.60p 168.00p 164.70p 167.90p 746,966 16:35:23
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 321.7 -992.7 -153.4 - 976.83

Cairn Energy Share Discussion Threads

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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
04/8/2017
21:54
Thanks Ed, Rogerlin Yep, average cash flow for the next 2 to 3 years should be around $260m for K+C, perhaps a bit less but certainly in excess of $225 (depending on OP assumptions, time to plateau etc etc). Reported shorts up by 0.1% today (27/07 Canada Pension Plan from 0.5% to 0.6%). Tullow down, but the bankers were betting against leverage there, and that's obviously far more sensitive to the recent OP expectation shift. Not sure about trying to fund the development of SNE at all, to my mind Cairn is all about value add via exploration, production is only there to provide the cash flows. Having said that, if they were to bin SNE, then they would be flush with cash (too far the other way), but I'm happy to have a cash return! Thanks for the note on Skarfjell, I tend to forget about that, I don't currently assign it any value. For what it's worth I estimate Capex for Kraken (100% WI) for 2018 of $160m (4 wells will remain at ~$40m a pop), and for Catcher (100% WI) $250m (5 wells at $50m a pop). I forget where I get the per well costs, but the well numbers yet to drill come from analysis of the recent Enquest/PMO updates.
frazboy
04/8/2017
19:07
https://www.wintershall.no/news-media/press-releases/detail/skarfjell-development-concept-submitted.html There is also the stake in Skarfjell to pay for.
rogerlin
04/8/2017
17:07
Re: Capex for 2018. I don't have any independent numbers. All I do is to refer to published material. So, for instance, page 29 of Cairn's April 2017 presentation gives spend projections for SNE. Total spend may be $5.2 billion but only $100-170 million in 2018? Times 40% for Cairn. Cross checking with FAR. They say capex $12-15/bbl, so for phase 1 at 350 million bbls = $4.5 billion. Say $5 billion as a rough average gross figure for SNE. Then x 40% = $2 billion for Cairn's share of SNE. Cash flow from Cairn's share of Kraken and Catcher might be $260 million pa? Rambling a bit, but I think Cairn might like to halve their 40% of SNE? $1 billion capex for SNE would be more manageable and production of c. 22,000 bbl/day would balance better with Kraken and Catcher. Cairn might get $3/bbl x 600mmbo x 20% for the 20% I think they might sell = $360 million. That would take down Cairn's capex to around $640 million. Shorts? Yes, some may simply be plays on their guess as to future oil prices?
ed 123
04/8/2017
14:34
.. meant to say, a couple of possible reasons short positions have been increasing i) is because the company's cash is running relatively low. They do have the RBL facility and the Kraken Flowstream 4.5% deal, but until the data says those fields are generating cash the shorters may sniff a bit of blood, and ii) the shorters increased their position when the oil price was sliding back down to the mid forties. It'll be interesting to see if they start to buy back, I noticed some reversal in Tullow's short position over the last week or two.
frazboy
04/8/2017
14:30
I'm not too concerned about Catcher startup - it's a few months away and it looks a bit more like a typical run of the mill development to me (although I can't remember how they're completing the wells) - and, besides it's worth a fair bit less than Kraken, perhaps 30p+ a share. As for India, I still don't see any cash changing hands, and even if it goes against them (and I'm pretty sure the issue isn't black and white), then the Indian authorities already have $1bn... As Rogerlin hinted at a few days ago, there's no way the Indian authorities are going to hand back the monies. Zero pence seems a reasonable estimate here. The way I see it, I've already priced in some issues (i'm a little bit pessimistic on my assumptions and profiles) on K+C, but I suppose I could price in failure in the tax case which will once suitably risked might knock 5-10p off a share? So, any news that K+C are producing at reasonable rates should start to lift the share price Other sources of good news are the Fan North well currently drilling (high CoS), and a possible sale of SNE but I agree the majors are still being prudent in handing out the cash, so valuing the reserves at between $2 and $3 still looks reasonable, particularly now more wells have been drilled than when Woodside bought their stake (I'm assuming the P90 has been brought up, and this from my experience is often how companies determine whether to proceed with a development). I had also wondered if some of the slippage in the share price was due to doubts over the development / commerciality of SNE, particularly with the "Lower for Longer" mantra being more accepted. BTW - I'm currently trying to estimate Capex for 2018 (Catcher, Kraken, and Senegal), do you have any numbers?
frazboy
04/8/2017
11:39
Ta, Frazboy. :-) Trying to understand the shorters ... Cairn has three significant events approaching: Kraken and Catcher start-ups and the judgement in the Indian Tax dispute. If any one of those disappoints, then the share price goes down? Maybe that's it? Also, Senegal would cost more to develop than Cairn could afford. Cairn have said that SNE would give in irr of 26% at $50 oil, so they should be able to farm out some. Majors, though, are in cash conservation and dividend support mode. Maybe there's some doubt about the value of SNE? Apologies to holders, just fishing around for why there should be increased short selling. (It's only a low level, btw - so may not be much to it.) Mexico - (Agree, Rogerlin :-) ) Premier took about 2 years from getting the blocks to well result. Cairn got its blocks in June 2017. So, maybe by January 2019 Cairn will have a drill rig booked for well(s) in the summer of 2019?
ed 123
04/8/2017
11:15
Premier acquired the licences in July 2015, re-processed existing seismic during 2016, so 2 years if existing seismic is up to the job.
rogerlin
04/8/2017
10:51
It cost Cairn a maximum of $22m for the well/block assuming they hit the liability threshold (operations seem to be going okay so they probably will be under the threshold). There was the other PVR block that they farmed into, but I think the cost of that was peanuts. So, that equates to 2.9p a share (if we have to be precise). Today Cairn is off 5p as i wirte, so, you could argue oversold. But the OP is also off today. and I have a NPV vs. price calculation that suggests that the rest of the slide in the Cairn price today is due to the fall in the OP. So, buying opportunity? Not really. Thing is, as we've both noticed the Cairn share price has consistently underperformed as the oil price has risen - it seems to rise a bit on good days, but fall a bit more on bad days. To get things in context, I've run three different evaluation (and all slightly pessimistic) methods on Kraken (I've ignored the Flowstream 4.5% cash for future revenue arrangement) and I get an NPV of around $480m. That's more like 61p a share. That's why I'm waiting for news that the producers all up and running and things are going approximately to plan (I don't mind a few months production deferrment, but wells/pumps falling over would be very disappointing). Mexico... we may get an update soon, but, they only got the block recently - I'm sure there will be existing seismic data but perhaps they will want to shoot more pre-drill which I estimate would take around 12 months (perhaps as long as 18 by the time it's been tendered, acquired and interpreted). How long did PMO take from acquisition of the block to the drilling of the first well - that would be a reasonable guide?
frazboy
04/8/2017
10:14
Any thoughts on the likely timing of drilling those Mexican blocks?
ed 123
04/8/2017
10:13
Bouncing now. Not sure the selling's finished, though. Possible revisit of 170p? Today will be immaterial to long-termers.
ed 123
04/8/2017
08:43
CNE has reacted to that news pretty much as expected, $25m risked nothing back (so more like 4p a share). PVR on the other hand... they only had 28% of the field after the FOs, yet it's knocked $50m off the value - I think there was some hope value there!
frazboy
04/8/2017
08:33
http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/providence-resources-PVR/share-news/PROVIDENCE-RES-Providence-Resources-P-L-C-Oper/75383252 And the Druid water wet. But on to Drombeg.
rogerlin
04/8/2017
08:31
"As we said in our trading update the FPSO will leave Singapore in August. It is only the 3rd August today and even if it leaves at the end of the month, there is time to achieve first oil in December." Re Catcher. Para from an e-mail from PMO posted on that board.
rogerlin
03/8/2017
15:27
Yep, watching carefully too Ed, particularly Kraken. I can't currently reconcile a recent investor presentation by Cairn which showed a decent slug of cash from Kraken this year, with the apparent lack of news/activity in the field - it's one month until we get an update from Enquest. Could be that the presentation was always optimistic, particularly when you factor in payment delays due to shipping, and wringing the cash out of enquest. Interesting times.
frazboy
03/8/2017
15:03
Disclosed shorts increased from 0.6% to 2.31% during July. Recent share price performance has underperformed my expectations. It may just be that some investors are cautious, awaiting flow rates from Kraken and Catcher? If both fields produce to expectations, then maybe the share price heads up towards 200p? Notwithstanding the above, my confidence wavered and I sold out. Might return, depending on outlook and share price. Keeping watch for now. GLA
ed 123
31/7/2017
19:29
http://far.live.irmau.com/irm/PDF/2333_0/QuarterlyActivitiesampCashflowReports In management comments near the end some remarks about the FAR PE arbitration process, expected to last "less than a year".
rogerlin
30/7/2017
20:24
Agreed edit: Not only do I agree, but I think the tax department will try to ensure that they have sold the stake by the time the arbitration period ends!
frazboy
30/7/2017
20:17
Yes I think not new, but if the shares are actually sold then I can't really seen CNE ever getting them back, or the Indian tax department ever paying Cairn anything whatever the tribunal says, they'll just say it has no jurisdiction in tax matters and delay indefinitely.
rogerlin
30/7/2017
09:55
I reckon that's old news Rogerlin. The tax dept/gov has now confiscated $100m dividends plus a $350m tax rebate plus the holding itself which very roughly adds up to 1bn of the initial 1.6bn claim. I'm not expecting any more information to be forthcoming until the outcome of the tribunal but worst case scenario for Cairn, perhaps a further $600m? That would certainly put a massive dent in the share price but I consider it to be extremely unlikely
frazboy
30/7/2017
08:13
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/tax-dept-mulls-selling-22-crore-shares-of-uks-cairn-energy-2332609.html
rogerlin
28/7/2017
19:57
https://www.cairnenergy.com/operations/republic-of-ireland/ Bumps, CNE has interests in several licences off Ireland. 2/14 is Druid. Hope for an elephant as you say! 4/08, 2/04 Spanish Point. With Providence. This was to be drilled a while ago but the rig, the Blackford Dolphin, went to Belfast for repairs which took so long it was too late in the year. Since then interest has switched to the southern Porcupine. 16/19 Farm in with EOG and 16/18 adjacent acreage, seismic for the moment. Promising acreage in south Porcupine.
rogerlin
28/7/2017
18:39
Are you guys following the Druid / Dromberg drill offshore Ireland?Providence Resources & Total are partners with Sosnia and Capricorn.Capricorn Ireland have a 30% stake and are owned by Cairn.About 5 billion barrels is the target.I noticed the spud didn't get rns'd here.Should get the first update on Druid within the next week or so then keep on drilling down to Dromberg.Not sure if this affects CNE or not.Bumps
bump3r
28/7/2017
10:32
For what it's worth - I think Delek were incredibly generous to Ithaca shareholders, I don't watch Faroe enough to have an opinion. As for Cairn (or Faroe) pursuing such a strategy I'm not so sure. There may come a time where the management team do think it's in shareholders interests that they start to wind down. A few reasons why they might do this. Firstly, you mentioned this being due to "attitude to risk", but I would have thought that it would be due to the long curve for oil prices - if it's dipping into the future then that would be the indicator that it's time to start shutting up the shop. Secondly, if they can't find attractive exploration acreage... Finally, if the company is generating surplus cash then, absolutely, return cash to shareholders (as Cairn has done in the past). On the last point ,once K+C do start throwing off cash, and should there be a positive outcome to the Indian saga (by the way, there was a FT article on this in June and an excellent comment by a forum member called "practical investor" which I would recommend reading) then, yes, show us the money! The problem for Cairn is that currently they need the cash; once Woodside take operatorship for SNE they'll want to push ahead with the development and Cairn are on the hook for 40% unless they can shift it - which I would welcome!
frazboy
28/7/2017
09:39
Exactly! It was Faroe I had in mind. Off-topic (apologies to others) .... Faroe, I think, will be feeling under pressure from Delek. If they made that commitment and set out estimated returns at a range of oil prices, they might achieve some rerating of the shares. Also, shareholders might do better that way than succumb to the 'generosity' of Delek? Back on-topic ... Cairn has started receiving income from Kraken, with Catcher due soon. Maybe drill some explo in Mexico, continue with Senegal, then sell both and return cash to shareholders in 2019? 2020 and beyond, pay dividends from their production? Would that do more for shareholders? (We can't know for sure, of course - but empire growing isn't necessarily in shareholders' best interests.)
ed 123
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