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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capricorn Energy Plc | CNE | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 169.20 | 14:15:27 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170.00 | 169.20 | 172.00 | 169.20 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| OIL & GAS PRODUCERS |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2023 | Special | GBP | 0.56 | 06/10/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 20/10/2023 |
| 29/09/2022 | Special | GBP | 1.15 | 16/05/2023 | 15/05/2023 | 23/05/2023 |
| 17/12/2020 | Special | GBP | 0.32 | 11/01/2021 | 08/01/2021 | 25/01/2021 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 25/2/2024 11:41 by xxnjr Hi Last of the Mohicans,Haven't looked in here for a while. Thanks for your continued analysis and running commentary. Walvis Bay was probably a tug refuelling stop + maybe a bit of R&R. BP's tug towed 'GTA FPSO' and 'Gimi' FLNG both stopped over at Walvis enroute for Senegal for hopefully a 3Q/24 start up which would be about 9 months late as pipelay vessel failed on that development. CNE production as you say seems below previous guidance. Apache, or APA as they now call themselves, are no.1 onshore in Egypt (220K boepd gross) and their 4Q mentioned some constraints in availability of workover rigs in country to perform the recompletions/workov Without more info from CNE it's difficult to say if decline is due to inherent reservoir issues or whether this is just a badly managed operation? Apache seem to be able to maintain their production fairly flat (on plateau) and have done so for years despite the in country headwinds. |
Posted at 21/2/2024 11:53 by last of the mohicans Hi churchill2,I hope you keep in touch :) Did you ever look at IPEL ? Hi Finkie, From what I can gather there is hardly a PI left with shares in the company. I'm not sure what to make of it at all. I am in ways certainly tempted to buy some, but there are now 2 shorter's in the stock & another couple of companies I've bought recently with shorters in them haven't done well at all, so that's a real negative for me now & is making me very cautious about CNE especially when there is zero visibility. The near 50,000 buyback yesterday was good to see :) GLA LOTM |
Posted at 08/2/2024 10:17 by last of the mohicans Hi churchill2hmm I'm not sure I agree with you there, I think there is more than a 50% chance at this moment in time of them making the 30th of June date. The FPSO has just come into range now & according to the marine traffic website is due in Dakar Offshore location on 10th Feb (its currently about to reach Guinea - Bissau) As to Goldman's stake it jumps around all over the shop up & down like a yo-yo. I see Citi & sold down there holding in the last few days, so maybe that's where all the shares are coming from. Good Luck PS if your looking for free money check out IPEL - but you need to do it quickly as it goes xd-dividend again next thursday LOTM |
Posted at 03/12/2023 01:05 by last of the mohicans I made my year end prediction's in post 119 on 28th October.Sadly since then Capricorn have released several negative pieces of news, including yesterday's operations update. They are meant to be open & transparent with there communications now, but sadly they are not as detailed as they should be in spelling things out for investors. It has taken me several of there announcement to get a better understanding of what's being said between lines, or has been left out for a reason! Sadly this is not going to be pleasant reading for many ........ The production miss is much great than you might initially think, originally production for the year was forecast to be 32,000 boepd with an exit rate of 34,000 boepd & increasing into early 2024. Instead production is now forecast to fall from just 30,600 boepd at the end of October to @ 30,000 boepd for the year as a whole. That means production for November & December combined is going to AVERAGE just 27,010 boepd. Yes that's right 27,000 boepd ((30,000*365 - (30600*304)) / 61). So this Miss isn't just the 2,000 boepd it appears to be on the surface ie 30,000 instead of 32,000. No the miss come the end of December is in actual fact 7,000 boepd. In other words Capricorn will enter 2024 with production over 20% below where it should have been. ---------- The announcement talks about more project delays & lower than expected new well contributions which is not a good sign. It then goes on to add this very interesting bit "Capricorn is working closely with the Operator to assist it to focus on high-grading new well opportunities, deploying the appropriate scale of rig fleet to ensure effective exploitation of the asset base, and delivering the most efficient drilling campaign and optimised reservoir management. They've talked about "high-grading" before but the new bit should be causing alarm on a number of fronts. Its basically saying the operator is using the wrong rigs ! Now this could be one of 2 things, the operator is using cheaper lower powered rigs in the hope of saving money, which usually ends up doing the exact opposite, with breakdowns, controlling the wells while drilling higher pressure sections, damaging the productive formations etc. Or it could be them using far more powerful rigs than are actually needed & thus these are likely to be far more expensive to hire & them hiring more rigs than they need! It all points to disagreements/fricti Which is alarming considering Capricorn has just passed operatorship of all the licences it operated over to Cheiron ! The fact the D&P budget is unchanged from previous guidance, re-enforces my alarm at what's happened, it doesn't make sense at all. If you've had to push back all these well's then a large chunk of the D&P money should have been pushed back into 2024 as well until the work takes place. So something is definitely not right there. I'd go so far as to say CEO Mr Neely will be taking the same approach to Egypt as he has to the UK, I doubt the head of Egypt is still in a job along with several others in senior positions, if she is I'd say its highly unlikely that she's there much longer. Those at the top there clearly have no idea of what there doing recruitment wise. Which leaves you wondering how Capricorn functioned at all previously! when they were meant to be an operator & the staff capable of doing so. ---------------- As to the financial numbers. Well the first key observation is this, why didn't they wait until Monday/Tuesday to put out this update ? Because if they did they could have incorporate the end of November numbers instead, but there's a good reason they didn't want to do that ! There well below the $70M I was expecting for cash receipts in the 2nd half of 2023, now in part a little of that will go down to the lower production numbers but still $44M seems on the low side. Receivables & Overdue payments both increased by @ $26M up to the end of October ( I had allowed for $50M for each to end of December). So no real progress so far in quickening up payments to us & they conveniently didn't give an updated payables number, so NO way of knowing the true net position! Debt was reduced by $13M which will help to lower Capricorn's interest payments. Now to the net cash balance of $45M down from $174.6M at the end of June (need to deduct @ $97M for the special dividend & @ $4.5M for the share buy-back (£13.255M-£9.7M to 31st Oct). So that leaves $73.1M less the $45M cash balance which means $28.1M of existing cash was used up in the 4 months, plus the $44M of new cash receipts, ie total spend of $72.1M over 4 months. I had 2nd half expenditure previously pencilled in for $120.1 - $130.1M, that figure will be wrong now because of lower opex costs etc. There still saying $40-50M D&P, lets stick to $30M for G&A, Egypt loan interest $5M, lets cut Opex to $23M & $8.4M for the rest of the share buy-back (but I'm going to exclude $6M of that for now), gives us a new total of $102.4 -$112.4M. So if we deduct total estimated spend for the 2nd half of this year ($102.4 -$112.4M) from that already spent $72.1M it leaves Capricorn with @ $30-40M to pay against a current cash balance of $45M. Therefore they have enough cash to last them through the end of December. Then it becomes very tricky indeed & they are at the mercy of EGPC & the payment that is due in January & whether it arrives on time or not because if it doesn't then how are they going to pay the $25M that is due to Shell ? Even if it does arrive on time its going to be a lot smaller than I had previous forecast due to the considerable drop in production that's occurred. Let's say the payment is enough to cover that $25M, they still need to have enough cash to get hem through to there next payment. Now Waldorf are going to be due them a payment of @ $50M currently, but given the current situation at Waldorf I doubt they'll be paying that until the very last minute possible (if not beyond) so in my opinion that cash won't be going into the bank account until at least 31st March 2024. Given the G&A spend of $6M for the 1st Qtr of 2024 not to mention Opex costs for the same period they will now simply run out of money. I talked about borrowing some in my forecast, that is still possible, but the cost of doing so will be much higher, given the falling production profile (instead of a rising one) the Senegal legal position that arisen etc. ------------- In summary the next 5 to 6 month's are now going to be extremely difficult for Capricorn, because of falling production, there failure to deffer D&P expenditure into 2024 & much lower cash receipts because of the EGPC than expected (that $26M lower than my forecast is hurting big time now) If the company could turn back the clock 3 months knowing what they know now they wouldn't have gone ahead with the $97M special dividend payment. They might have paid out 50% of it instead or delayed it into 2024, citing EGPC for the delay due to the failure to pay on time & having to constantly increase the amount of working capital currently require in the meantime until its resolved. I'm not sure how much longer they will keep going with the buy-back there is still @ $7.5M to be spent on it to reach the minimum $25M they promised shareholders. I suspect there will come a time when it is halted temporarily (until the Waldorf payment is received for example or EGPC makes a back payment covering some of the overdue amounts). There won't be room for any new D&P expenditure until that Waldorf payment is received & its just as well they've cut G&A by $50M from now on otherwise they'd be having to find another $4M a month from January just to keep going! ------------ I still see potential here, but the company has a lot of explaining to do to its shareholders & it really needs to do so soon, but it may not have all the facts itself yet to pass on ! I'm not sure what the big American banks / brokers see that we don't that keeps drawing more of them in to buying a stake in Capricorn. If you offered me as many shares as I wanted to buy at £1.30 right now, I'd say thanks but no thanks. The answer would probably be the same at £1.20 until I know more facts. Yes that is a big difference from the current share price but in terms of market value it's only around $25M ( or the cash I was expecting them to have received but haven't & no its not in the receivables number instead, as that's kind of where I was expecting it to be end of October) . Good luck all - post now complete & ready for comment LOTM |
Posted at 30/10/2023 01:43 by last of the mohicans aspect100,It was a takeover target on 2022 & the 2 offers were rejected by the institutions who changed the board to the current one. I'd say its highly unlikely to be a takeover target now that it's paid out $550M in cash. If someone wanted access to such a lot of cash that opportunity is now gone. The company has down sized substantially since late 2020. There used to be 585M shares in issue its currently just 94.5M & will soon enough be under 91M, ie under 1/6th of the size it used to be. Your seeing me talk of large dividends ( & they are on a per share basis) but in reality the actual cash amount is not that much. With 91M shares a $0.10 a share dividend costs the company $9.1M (with 585M shares that would mean a cost of $58.5M). With 75M shares ( that's me assuming the 2024 Waldorf payment is paid as a special dividend & another share consolidation along with it) it only costs Capricorn $7.5M for a $0.10 dividend per share. And with the 55M number I talked of in 2025 in my last post the cost is just $5.5M for every $0.10 dividend. So I regard it as a cash cow going forward. If I'm wrong & there is a takeover offer then what sort of price are they going to offer & the directors ( or more importantly the Insto's) going to accept ? They wouldn't take £2.70 in 2022. And on my calculations the 2 share consolidation & buy-back have only enhanced the remaining value on a per share basis ( not an overall valuation of the company) since then. I currently have the figure at around £4.20 per share & growing with every share bought back below that price. However it will need adjusting depending on what's said on 30th November about Egypt & the company's oil & gas reserves. If they write down the value of the recoverable reserves then that figure will fall, conversely if they increase the recoverable reserve number it will rise. Given Capricorn is now just a 1/6th the size it once was just a small revision up or down will make quite a difference to the asset value per share. 1M barrels of oil divided by 585M doesn't even give you 2 per barrel, yet with 91M shares its 11 barrels & the inground value of that. LOTM |
Posted at 28/10/2023 18:16 by last of the mohicans Year End Prediction30th June net cash position was $176M less the Roughly $100M special dividend that has now been paid. Net receivables were $148M with $113M of it overdue. 2nd half capex in Egypt for development & production was put at $40 - $50M G&A for the 2nd half I'm estimating as $30M weighted to Q3. Share buy-back program $14M in the 2nd half (although I don't think it will be finished by year end). Net interest payable on Egypt Loan $5M after allowing for interest receivable on Capricorn cash balances. There is around $20.3M in the accounts due to be paid within 12 month's I'm guessing its payable around the end of the year / early Jan & is effectively offset by a matching cash balance, so all we'll see is a reduction in outstanding debt & a lower overall cash balance. There is also $25M payable to Shell in Jan 2024. The only other cash cost will be OPEX - I've calculate that at $13 per net boe. So on 6,000 bopd & 7,000 boed nat gas & 184 days that works out at $31.1M (1st half cost was $27.5M for comparison in the accounts) Only other thing on the subtraction side is depletion of reserves, but that's an accounting number affecting the assets of the company not a cash number. The 1st half was down as $55.1M so I'll be using $60M as my number for this. So total 2nd half cash expenditure is expected to be between $120.1M & $130.1M depending on the actual D&P number. On the income side, I've estimated Brent oil to average $88 per barrel for the half & the discount for Egypt to be $2 per barrel taking it down to $86. Thus oil income will be $95M (86 x 6000 x 184). Working out the nat gas number is sadly more complex. Capricorn use a number of 5.6 to convert there gas to boe rather than the standard figure of 6. Which means it has a higher BTU number than 1055 per MCF. After much debate I've decided to price it at 6x$2.95 rather than 5.6x$2.95 although it doesn't really matter that much as the difference over the 6 months is only $1.5M So nat gas income will be @ $22.75M This gives us a total income on paper of $117.75M I say on paper because although its earned in the current half year, payments are always in arrears. So for Oil production in Oct the cash isn't actually due to be paid until 1st Dec & Gas not until the following month. So the easiest way to think about it is payment being a quarter behind actual production. So the 2nd half would normal get the income earned in Q2 & Q3 which in this case means the lowest oil prices for the year so far in May & June being in the calculation from a cash received perspective. Bearing this in mind I'm going to use an overall number of $100M from the cash side of things with regard to income. The next important question that needs to be addressed regards the overdue amounts, has this got worse/better/or stayed the same from what happened in the 1st half of the year. I don't think they will have improved yet, so I've gone with a similar deterioration to that of the 1st half, ie a $50M increase in both net receivables & overdue amounts. Offset by a $20M increase in payables (the figures were $51M, $47M & $21M in the half year accounts). So effectively a further $30M deterioration. Now to put it all together............ Cash of $76M + income in cash of $70M ($100M - $30M) = $146M Less expenditure of between $120.1M to $130.1M Leaving us with a net cash balance of between $15.9M & $25.9M Plus net receivables of $215.75M ($148M + $50M + $17.75M) with $163M of it overdue ($113M + $50M) & net payables of $56M ($36M + $20M) Now there is a scenario on these numbers where the company doesn't have the physical cash to pay the $25M to Shell in Jan 2024 although there should be payments coming into us on 1st of Jan (or close to then) of over $20M which would alleviate the problem. However that scenario only exists if Capricorn hasn't taken mitigating action before then like reducing the D&P spend / suspending the rest of what's left of the buy-back for a few weeks etc, or borrowing $15M max for 3 month's. I'm sure they will take the appropriate action as needs be because Cheiron & Capricorn will simply not let the outstanding balances continue to build up without reducing there D&P spend or pushed it back until cash is coming in to match it, as its not in there interests to do so especially with Cherion being the largest Independent O&G in Egypt with many more licences than ours to deal with (fund) as well. Our G&A expenses will be down to just $2M a month max by then as well & there will be a large incoming payment from Waldorf before April to make the cash bank balances look very rosy again. Having dealt with the potential downside lets look at the upside of where things are. I've used the max expenditure numbers in these calculations but I've not done so on the revenue side, oil production by late December should be nearer 7,000 bopd rather than the 6,000 I've used for example. So our net position at the end of June was $186M ($76M cash + $112M net receivables [$148M - $36M of payables] ) of near liquid assets. At the end of December we're looking at near liquid assets of between $175.65M & $185.65M ( with a minimum of $15.9M to $25.9M of it in cash + $159.75M net receivables [$215.75M - $56M of payables] ) Now obviously it would be preferable for the cash figure to be higher & the net receivables number lower by the corresponding amount. In other words we're literally back to where we were at the end of June, only having spent another $40 - 50M on D&P that has increased our production rates ahead of 2024, $14M on the share buy-back & a large chunk of the $30M on G&A right sizing the business for the future. Which makes for a very bright outlook for 2024, even if we were to ignore the Waldorf payment completely. We'll have higher production & lower G&A costs, & as some of those net receivables get paid to us, they'll be a lot of room for dividend payments. In Q1 of 2024 Expense's for example will come to around $64.5M ($25M Shell, $15M D&P, $15.5M OPEX, $6M G&A, $3M Debt Int). Yet using 7,000 bopd & 6,000 boe of nat gas, revenue will come to $65.5M ( $54.75M Oil, $9.75M gas) using the same average prices of $86 for Egypt oil & $2.95 for gas. Now you're saying where's the spare cash for ordinary dividends on those numbers ! Well in Q2 Expense's will drop to $43.5M ($20M D&P, $15.5M OPEX, $5M G&A, $3M Debt Int) & that's with increasing D&P by another $5M for the quarter. While income should actually increase due to production increases from the cash invested in Q1, but even leaving it unchanged we'll be $22.5M better off, meaning that Capricorn should be able to pay an interim dividend in Sept/Oct of around $15M easily. Translating that into a per-share number depends on what happens to the Waldorf payment & whether that was used to give us another special dividend & share consolidation before then. If it was then we'd be looking at around $0.20 per share for the interim dividend rather than say $0.15 As for the final dividend for 2024, well that would all depend on what the oil price does during the year, but if it did average out at a price similar to this year's then I wouldn't be surprised to see $30M being paid out ie potentially $0.40 per share (in May 2025) & $0.60 in total in ordinary dividends for the year to 31st Dec 2024 & that's just the beginning of these significant payouts. The potential 2025 payment's from Waldorf & Woodside ahead of that final dividend announcement could have a significant bearing on the per share amount's. It will depend on the share price at that time as to how many shares would be cancelled from another consolidation, but I can see the potential for Capricorn to have just 55M shares in issue by then(90.55M end of 2023 to 75M in 2024), thus the final dividend payout would be around $0.55 per share instead of $0.40 which is a massive difference. LOTM |
Posted at 04/10/2023 09:25 by last of the mohicans Just a reminder for everyone.......The meeting to approve the Special Dividend of £0.56 per share, followed by the share consolidation of 2 new shares for every 3 existing ones is tomorrow Thursday 5th Oct. The shares will then effectively go EX dividend at the close of business on Thursday 5th Oct. The share consolidation occurs ahead of the market opening on Friday 6th Oct. Only this time round unlike in May ahead of the previous special dividend & share consolidation. The share price is above the balancing point. That means the gearing is in our favour this time round not against us. The balancing point is 3 x £1.68 = £5.04 less the 3 x £0.56 dividend (£1.68) leaves you with £3.36 which when dividend by the 2 new shares would equate to a price of £1.68 each. If the current price of £1.80 turns out to be the closing price on the 5th Oct, then the new shares should return to trading around £1.86 (£5.40-£1.68 = £3.72 / 2) to have the same market value as before. If the share price goes higher then the gap will grow out from that £0.06 difference, if it falls it will shrink in size. Tick Tock, Tick Tock especially for those institutions that have sold/lend for cash there voting rights to other's (all 19% of them) , which might be the reason behind the scramble for shares that looks to be occurring. LOTM |
Posted at 18/9/2023 20:38 by last of the mohicans I thought I'd write this for anyone new here or for anyone who wasn't paying attention back in May when the company distributed $450M via a £1.15 special dividend & 70 old shares for 33 new share consolidation.When I first looked at it the share price was around £2.25 - £2.30 a share & the share buy-back was active, which I found really strange because they were in effect over paying for the shares they were buying back! I think someone in the company eventually picked up on that & the buy-back stopped until the share consolidation was done. In actual fact they should have stopped it until the share price was below £2.177 & then continued again, why ? Well the inflection point with a dividend of £1.15 & consolidation ratio of 70 to 33 works out to be £2.177. I think examples are the best way of demonstrating it to you. So 70 shares priced at £2.177 give a total value of &152.40 You then receive a dividend of £80.50 (£1.15*70), the ex-d price of the shares should then be £1.027 (£2.177- £1.15) multiple it by 70 & you have an equity value of £71.89. You then divide that equity value (£71.89) by 33 (new shares) & you get a price of £2.178 per share. The consolidation ratio (70/33) means there are now only 47.14% of the shares in issue compare to before. So you have a large multiplier effect if the closing share price isn't £2.177. If it was £2.24 instead, then the dividend is the same but the closing equity value is not £71.89 its £76.30 & when you divide that by 33 it works out at £2.312 after the consolidation. In other words the original £0.063 difference turns into one of £0.134 Which means you really wanted to still own the shares at the ex-d date because you were better off. Conversely if the share price was £2.12 at the ex-d date, the consolidated shares should only return to market at £2.058 which makes you worse off holding them at the ex-d date you'd be better off selling out before hand & then buying them back afterwards. -------------------- This time round the dividend is £0.56 & the consolidation ratio is 3 old into 2 new ones. So the inflection point is £1.68 This time the compression ratio is 66.66% so there is a lot less gearing than the last time round. So the effect isn't as dramatic as before, but it will still make a difference to your bottom line. At an ex-d close of £1.74 the shares should return to trading at £1.77 & if its £1.62 then they should return at £1.59 -------------------- In May I expected the share price to rise ahead of the ex-d date that didn't happen & the share price was very weak on its return to trading. LOTM |
Posted at 31/8/2023 14:08 by last of the mohicans taxi1Personally I'm not expecting too much with the half year report, given the oil price in the 1st half of the year. Some more substantially above expectation (pre drill) new development wells would be nice. Probably the most important bit will be how they are getting on with reducing the outstanding payments due to them in Egypt ( or at least holding them steady for now) Then how they are going to distribute that $100M. Hopefully they do another share consolidation with it, along the lines of 3 new shares for every 4 held. I know you'll think that's not going to do anything, well it won't immediately but come the middle of next year, you'll probably have changed your mind when you start to see how much the dividend yield is. That will then push up the share price as other investors see the value here of a significant cash-cow. I'm also hoping they increase the size of the share buyback and actually use that cash to do it. The current one should be mopping up stock nice and cheaply right now & for some unexplained reason its not & yes it will make a big difference further down the line, getting those other 4M+ shares bought it, because that will be 4% less shares for the dividend to be shared amongst. If you go back to the offers around the £2.70 mark, then each share bought back for under that price, increases the value of those left in issue. Yes its a kind of hidden value but its still there & growing ( the $450M payment effectively bought in 166.5M shares at £2.11 & the buyback has bought in 5.7M at roughly £2.09 on average). So that increases the hidden value from £2.70 to over £3.30 a share on the shares currently in issue. With around 100M shares in issue following all of the above, & next years operating costs reducing by $35M. (yes that's $0.35 per share drop in annual costs). LOTM |
Posted at 24/5/2023 11:03 by scoble2 ii just updatedConfirmation - Dividend update Capricorn Energy Plc paid a dividend on 23rd May 2023, and this was credited to entitled customer accounts. Due to the non-receipt of the cash, we reversed this dividend from customer accounts, pending receipt of the cash from the registrar. This has been escalated with the registrar and we will recredit the dividend to customer accounts upon receipt of the cash. We confirm that dividend reinvestment and dividend pay away will not be impacted by this reversal. When the dividend is reapplied, these processes will both be completed as standard. If your account has been placed into a debit position due to the dividend reversal, we confirm that no fees will be applied to your account. Your account will be updated upon receipt of the proceeds but in some circumstances there may be delays in the proceeds being credited to us. Please allow 10 working days for your account to be updated. |
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