Cadogan Energy Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[targatarga] 16/5/2019 12:04

I feel that when Cagogan stated their intent to do in-depth analysis. They gave traders the green light to sell early and buy back cheaper later. Imho

[nick rubens] 16/5/2019 10:03

Feels like everyone is leaving the stock. It was trading at 6p prior, perhaps all the good news is in the price then?

It's going to need a good result from this recent well to inspire some confidence again?

[targatarga] 13/5/2019 16:11

We'll soon be back at pre drill price imho

[brumbrum79] 11/5/2019 22:07

I found on twitter this news about Proger Spa:

OrdineArchitettiRoma
‏ @architettiroma
1 apr 2019

#concorsi
Nuova sede @istat_it a Pietralata: aggiudicato il concorso.
A vincere la cordata romana guidata da #AbdrArchitettiAssociati con #StudioValleProgettazioni, #Proger e #ManensTifs.
E' il terzo tentativo in 12 anni: sarà la volta buona? Leggi: hxxps://ordine.architettiroma.it/attivita-ordine/terzo-tentativo-in-12-anni-per-la-nuova-sede-istat-a-pietralata-aggiudicato-il-concorso/ …

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator

OrderArchitectsRome
@architectureroma
1 April 2019

#contests
New @istat_en headquarters in Pietralata: the competition was awarded.
To win the Roman team led by #AbdrArchitettiAssociati with #StudioValleProgetzioni, #Proger and #ManensTifs.
This is the third attempt in 12 years: will it be the right time? Read: hxxps://ordine.architettiroma.it/attivita-ordine/terzo-tentativo-in-12-anni-per-la-nuova-sede-istat-a-pietralata-aggiudicato-il-concorso/
_____________________________________________________
Link:
hxxps://ordine.architettiroma.it/attivita-ordine/terzo-tentativo-in-12-anni-per-la-nuova-sede-istat-a-pietralata-aggiudicato-il-concorso/

costo stimato per la realizzazione: 82,9 milioni di euro

estimated cost of implementation: EUR 82.9 million

_________________________________________________

Links ISTAT's Headquarter Pietralata (Rome city area) Tender awarded:
hxxp://trasparenza.mit.gov.it/archivio11_bandi-gare-e-contratti_0_231791_566_1.html

_________________________________________________

ByeBye

[brumbrum79] 10/5/2019 23:36

It's quite difficult to answer.
In one of my previous message I try to estimate Gross Margin/Ebitda Margin for Oil production.

The problems are:
crude oil price evolution (Brent benchmark);
discount price applied on Ukrainian Crude Oil - normally in the range 15-25$/bbl than Brent price;
Production-License taxes/fees now 29% for Crude Oil - in the past it was higher;
Oil BU Operating Cost estimation?;
Unallocated administrative expenses.. same share (%) for different BU?
D&A -> ??%... Blazh-10 total investment? depletion rate? years production?
Ukraine Corporate Taxes 18%;
etc etc...
it's not so simple.


In my previous message I tried to understand if there could be an upside/upward review of the Monastyretska reserves (do nothing scenario + infill drilling = 3,5 MBbl) based on the hypothetical production rate of the Blazh-10 well and if someone else had an opinion/idea about that.
Based on (simple) estimation it would seem "clear" for a production rate above 300 boepd.

[thefrog4] 10/5/2019 22:19

Thank you for the helpful insight brumbrum. Do you have an opinion on cash flow from this production?

[brumbrum79] 10/5/2019 21:21

What is Cadogan Petroleum doing in these days?

Imho.. Extended Well Tests
Extended well tests (EWTs) are used to evaluate productivity and characteristics of a reservoir.
Clearly understanding the reservoir's potential helps operators reduce risks.

In particular, EWTs are used to:

estimate reservoir volume and confirm reserves for field development;

confirm long-term reservoir deliverability;

pilot future facility designs during actual field development;

provide an opportunity to estimate interwell transmissibility and wellbore storage
verify static data dynamically;

obtain additional production-related data, such as water cut, sand production, and well deliverability.

EWTs also provide a way to test sand control techniques and process- and production-related technologies. Such testing minimizes risks related to developing a field for long-term, sustained production.
...

I'm thinking about:
'Future cumulative production of a do-nothing scenario, i.e. from the three exsting wells only, is predicted to be 1.2 MBbl'.
Today Cadogan petroleum 3 Oil Wells production (net) is 220 boepd (update on 31 december 2018, cadogan web site) -> 80.300 boe/year
1.200.000/80.300 = >14 years... (14,94)

'infill drilling can add up to 2.3 million barrels (MBbl) to the cumulative production of a do-nothing scenario'

Some (simple) estimation:
Blazh-10 well

150 boepd -> 54.750 boe/year
10 years production -> 547.500 boe -> Total 4 wells (included Blazh-10)

200 boepd -> 73.000 boe/year
10 years production -> 730.000 boe -> Total 3 wells (included Blazh-10)

250 boepd -> 91.250 boe/year
10 years production -> 912.500 boe -> Total 2,5 wells (included Blazh-10)

300 boepd -> 109.500 boe/year
10 years production -> 1.095.000 boe -> Total 2,1 wells (included Blazh-10)

350 boepd -> 127.750 boe/year
10 years production -> 1.277.500 boe -> Total 1,8 wells (included Blazh-10)

I know i don't apply any depletion rate to the production estimation, it's a bit irrealistic, but I reduce production time by 33% than 3 existing Oil wells.

ByeBye

[targatarga] 10/5/2019 13:09

I've been here so long that I should get my gold watch soon.... Onwards and upwards imho

[brumbrum79] 10/5/2019 08:59

Targa.. Update/news maybe next week.
I'll wait with confidence.
ByeBye

[targatarga] 09/5/2019 17:50

I suppose when they said exhaustive studies they meant it could take some time!

[sabzahmed] 03/5/2019 20:15

Sorry but I can't see the link to CAD. Am I missing something?

[targatarga] 03/5/2019 13:35

Everyone on holiday?

[targatarga] 02/5/2019 17:13

Looks to me that everything paid over12 today was a buy! Imho

[itsriskythat] 01/5/2019 17:23

Buys of 500k, 750k and 250k shares were reported after the close this evening.

[itsriskythat] 01/5/2019 12:10

Improved test results still to come.

[targatarga] 01/5/2019 11:46

Another opportunity to add!

[neo26] 30/4/2019 11:26

This is CAD

[johncasey] 30/4/2019 11:16

big news out at KDNC

Highlights from Hastings News Release:

· In principal eligibility for the German Government UFK scheme confirmed for up to USD 140 million (approx AUD 200 million) from Euler Hermes.

· UFK scheme offers concessionary project finance loan terms for a period of seven years.

· Progressing on due diligence on the technical, economic, environmental, legal and special aspects of the Yangibana project.

The confirmation is based on the understanding that a German Tier 1 company will be the off-taker for a minimum of 5,000 tonnes of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) per annum from Hastings' Yangibana Rare Earth Project for a minimum contract period of 10 years. Further due diligence is being undertaken on the economic, technical, legal, environmental and social aspects and the UFK loan application will be subject to final approval by the German Government's Inter Ministerial Committee.

As announced in July 2018, Hastings has exclusively mandated the German bank, KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH ("KfW IPEX Bank") to provide project finance loan advisory services and assist Hastings in relation to securing approval from Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft ("Euler Hermes") for the UFK Cover. KfW IPEX-Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of the KfW Group is a leading German export and project finance specialist with significant experience in the debt financing of mining projects worldwide.

The Yangibana Project involves the development of Rare Earth's deposits rich in neodymium and praseodymium, elements vital to permanent magnets that provide many critical components of wide-ranging high-tech products, including electric vehicles, renewable energy wind turbines, robotics, medical applications and others. The development of this project is expected to bring benefits to the Gascoyne, Carnarvon and Meekatharra regions of northern Australia including through employment and business opportunities. The Yangibana Project aims to be the next significant producer of neodymium and praseodymium outside of China.

[neo26] 30/4/2019 11:13

I think this stock is really cheap, they plenty of cash grow, producing over 600bopd now, they lent out €13m also.Mkt cap low, no cash call will get on with it..

[diesel] 30/4/2019 09:50

Good result, this was never going to be 1000+, but is good enough to justify a rerating, we should be at about 20p, might take another confirmation RNS, but comfortable with my recent purchases here....

[tomboyb] 30/4/2019 09:38

rns out -

looks good -

[diesel] 29/4/2019 10:39

I think CAD's biggest negative is the territory in which it operates almost anywhere else and I think this would reflect a fairer value, as it is it is only valued at about its cash and investment level. They have run a lean business to eke out a profit(just) from a minnow of an O&G business, but that means any increase in production will have a disproportionate effect of the bottom line. Blazh-10, looks very promising....

[spangle93] 28/4/2019 22:53

Great research Brumbrum

I agree - while the Italian exploration moratorium is in place, I don't think any significant value can be ascribed to the assets in that country.


Ref your question - the challenge to suggesting a share price for CAD is that it is permanently undervalued, even against cash + financial assets as you show. It's like an investment trust that has a persistent discount to NAV.

Maybe a question that's equally important is not necessarily how to add more value but how to close this valuation gap?