Cadogan Energy Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 28/4/2019 22:53

Great research Brumbrum

I agree - while the Italian exploration moratorium is in place, I don't think any significant value can be ascribed to the assets in that country.


Ref your question - the challenge to suggesting a share price for CAD is that it is permanently undervalued, even against cash + financial assets as you show. It's like an investment trust that has a persistent discount to NAV.

Maybe a question that's equally important is not necessarily how to add more value but how to close this valuation gap?

[brumbrum79] 28/4/2019 22:22

Hi Diesel,

Good observation.

Sorry, I didn't remember the Italian assets: Expoenergy srl, it filed applications for 2 exploration licenses (Corzano and Reno Centese - Natural Gas, un-risked prospective resources =/>60 BCF) in the Po Valley area.

The problems of the Italian Assets are:
- 18-months moratorium (started on january 2019) on the award of new licenses;
- Italian annual acreage fees increased by 25 times than previous regime;

Imho, today the Italian Assets value is very little (near to zero) or better it's like a "call-option" if and when the moratorium is lifted;
Cadogan Petroleum acquired Italian Assets for a deffered cash consideration, contingent upon licences being awarded, and it invested zero $.

...

What value for Cadogan? A good question.
Imho, today's share price (0,12/0,1225 gbp) is not completly fair, it's still a bit undervalued - there's room. I thought it was clear from my previous message.

We could have a better idea about "fair value" after Blazh-10 well flow test(s) results.

Bye Bye

[diesel] 28/4/2019 21:12

brumbrum, did you leave out the Italian licenses? so what value for the company...
I think this could/should be double where we are now, what say you?

[targatarga] 28/4/2019 19:16

Brum Brum- till next time....thankyou

[brumbrum79] 28/4/2019 14:53

Imho, this is the situation:

CADOGAN PETROLEUM

Shares Issued: 235.730.000
Mkt Price: 0,1225 Gbp
Mkt Cap – 26/04/19: 29 Million Gbp/37,50 Million Usd (exchange rate usd/gbp 0,7750)

Cash & Banks: -20,00 Million Usd
(including 7 Million $ used as a pledge for credit line)

Loan/Convertible Bond (rate 5,5% yearly) to Proger Spa
(+ Call Option, if exercised by Cadogan, to acquire an indirect 22% interest in Proger Spa): -15,20 Million Usd

Total Cadogan's Cash & Financial Assets: -35,20 Million Usd

Δ Mkt Cap/Cadogan’s Cash & Financial Assets: +2,30 Million Usd

2,30 Million Usd included:

Monastyretska License:
2P 1,29 MMBoe – 3P 4,39 MMBoe (Reserves update to 31 December 2018 - based on Monastyretska Oil Average Production Rate of 187 Bopd in the 2018 - 68.000/69.000 Bbls/2018), + Contingent Resources; Producing Asset (3 existing Oil Wells – exit Oil production rate: Boepd 215-220);
New Well Blazh-10 with initial positive results;
(Plausible) Conversion of the License from E&P to Production;
Upside potential (Infill Drilling – It can add up to 2.3 MBbl to the cumulative production of a do-nothing scenario (existing 3 producing Oil Wells: Blazh-mon 3, Blazh-1, Blazh-3; do-nothing scenario 2P 1,2 Mbbl), Water injection, Bystrycia formation??));
possible review of the Reserves & Resources if Blazh-10 well was successfull;

Bytlianska License:
2P 0,80 MMBoe – 3P 3,20 MMBoe + Contingent Resources;
No Producing Asset (or better: Vovche-2 Well is in a pilot production scheme); Upside potential; Pursuing Farm-Out for development & appraisal;

Gas Trading:
Profitable BU; Increased competition in the Gas Trading Market but it retains positive gross margin;

Oil Services:
Profitable BU when it provides Oil Services to third parties;
Oil Services to the Group’s Oil&Gas Assets – cost savings;

“Taxes” Assets:
Ukrainian’s VAT Recoverable throught Operating Activities; 1,8 Million Usd – Cadogan Petroleum 2018 Annual Financial Report;

Ukrainian’s Unused Tax losses available; 180,982 Million Usd; §

Others: ??? ???


East Ukraine “Assets”:

Wells drilled in the previous exploration campaign: may be rentable to/for sale;

Cadogan’s seismic/geological informations, well(s) logs data, etc… for Zagoryanska/Pirkovska/Pokrovska areas;

§ Ukrainian’s Unused Tax losses available – 103 Million Usd related to these companies: LLC Astroinvest-Energy/LLC Zagvydobuvannya - Zagoryanskaya Petroleum B.V.; LLC Industrial Company Gazvydobuvannya - Pokrovskaya Petroleum B.V.; (ref.: Cadogan Petroleum 2015-2016-2017-2018 Annual Financial Report);

Cadogan Pirkovskoe BV - LLC AstroInvest-Ukraine (*);
Cadogan Pirkovskoe BV - LLC AstroGas;
Zagoryanskaya Petroleum B.V. - LLC Astroinvest-Energy/LLC Zagvydobuvannya;
Pokrovskaya Petroleum B.V. - LLC Industrial Company Gazvydobuvannya;
...

Last but not least, I can be safely wrong but I think and believe that Blazh-10 well is a part of the infill drilling programme on the Monastyretska license.
Please refer to:
Monastyretska License area structural map in the Cadogan's Presentation Oil Capital Conference 2017;
last rns/well update ('The well has already been connected to the oil tanks in the area of the Blazh Mon 3 (3-BM/BM-3) well and the produced hydrocarbons will be diverted from the test tank into the Blazh-Mon 3 tanks at the end of the clean-up.');

What do you think about this?
...

(*) AstroInvest-Ukraine: Everyone of us knows..
'The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine has agreed with the Cyprus company Burisma Holdings Limited to purchase more than 50% of the gas supplier "Astroinvest-Ukraine" owned by the British Cadogan Petroleum.
The relevant decision was made at a meeting of the Antimonopoly Committee on April 18 (2019), reports Interfax-Ukraine.' (thanks to: h2owater... information taken from an his previous message);

Bye Bye

[targatarga] 26/4/2019 17:12

Any views on Cadogans next drills. Tia

[nick rubens] 26/4/2019 09:10

I think the market just wants to know how big the well is and what's the flow rate. All this 'potential', 'encouraging' and such only works for a little while.

It could be huge, it could be naff but we don't know. The company is only reporting as they go along. It's not as if they need to ramp for a placing so I do believe they don't know exactly yet themselves and are not talking anything up.

Maybe a week or two away from knowing the fine details? Put us out of our agony. lol

[spangle93] 26/4/2019 06:40

Exactly, madchatter2 - we've had no quantitative indications on what the well might deliver, only qualitative, and the only benchmarks are the existing wells in this formation, which delivers 10s of bbl/day but which are mature.

The pressure obviously isn't high despite the depth; although it's on natural flow, the plan is to put pumps on to regulate flow.

Personally, my thought is that if it's doing 150 on clean up, the top range would be 200-250 bopd and there's a fair chance it could be less than this. It's not like it's been fracked, and normally steady state production rates are lower than test rates, see e.g. BLOE. But it's still a great result for this company. Let's hope it encourages more actual well operations

Honest, I'd like to love this company, but they make it very difficult.

[madchatter2] 25/4/2019 19:18

So what is the upper end of expectations? 350bopd?

[brumbrum79] 25/4/2019 14:07

Babbler, exactly!

Someone else doesn't understand..
the clean-up operations are in progress;
150 Bpd of Oil are natural flow in the clean-up phase;
Further updates.. etc...

[babbler] 25/4/2019 13:49

yup. You seem to get it... others don't.

[babbler] 25/4/2019 13:48

idiot...its the clean up flow.

[bloewillblow1] 25/4/2019 13:37

150 that's well under what was expected bLoe expected 325 but got 1100!!! Buy BLOE

[targatarga] 25/4/2019 12:53

Should move north later imho

[tidy 2] 25/4/2019 12:51

BLOE just reported 1100bopd 26m cap 10m+ profit paNo debt self fundingChoked back to 700bopd as its outperforming on-site facilities Second horizontal well drill ready to repeat and back to back follow ups all funded. Quick reentry sidetrack to make horizontal wells Best results in 50 years Georgia. Doubled production overnight Exxon moving in on area.

[nick rubens] 25/4/2019 12:51

Well, at least it's not a duster so far. Look forward to further details and hope it is a decent size with good flow.

[akmal101] 25/4/2019 12:50

Drop was expected after an rns. Penny profits are not for me

[diesel] 25/4/2019 12:37

Thought they were hinting at this result as per previous post, also think they are hinting that levels will be much higher under mechanical lift. They are traditionally very conservative in their news releases. Good result....

[nick rubens] 25/4/2019 12:36

Pay Zone at the High Range and further tests for capacity to come. Could be huge?

[babbler] 25/4/2019 12:29

lol... seems good but for some reason sell on news as usual?

[nick rubens] 25/4/2019 12:28

I think the bulls are buying first and then announcing what they've just read!

[babbler] 25/4/2019 12:21

market asleep at lunch...