C4x Discovery Share Discussion Threads

[pugg1ey] 30/7/2020 14:46

Probably about right. First in dose in man milestones have a wide variation. Seen some at $15M

[the stigologist] 30/7/2020 14:43

My survey of public Phase I milestones found a range of $4-10m so any of those are significant for C4XD

Lots of accumulation going on

Sellers can only sell once

EVG epic rise today an indicator of interest in NRF2

We have about 11 Discovery programmes running. Hard to see how one doesn't reach licence stage in the next year will have been 3 years SINCE Dix was claiming they could do 1 or 2 a year !

We're overdue 2-4 by that token

[davemac3] 30/7/2020 14:41

Stig, I reckon $5-10 million for Phase 1 (if it's a financial milestone). Probably more like $40-50 million for a successful Phase 2 and the rest of the $294 million split between Phase 3, FDA submission and launch.

[the stigologist] 30/7/2020 10:45

Was this a hint?

[the stigologist] 30/7/2020 08:43

Pivotal pre clinical studies completed as well

IND submission maybe another milestone event ?

Either way quite clear Phase I start is a MAJOR milestone.

Indivior owe us money. Potentially a lot of money

If you disaggregate out $294m by milestones

Given they gave us $10m up front and one would imagine Phase I, II, III

Might yield either $5m, $10m, $25m ? ?

Either way any payment of that order will be significant to C4XD


And then we have the potential of licencing NRF2, IL17, and a mystery compound X to mystery partner Y

This is too cheap right now in a Biotech/Pharma gold rush where we are supplying 'picks and shovels' to the Majors ?

OR are we a small explorer selling early stage finds to the big boys to develop ?

Anyway we're in the middle of a fkn gold rush in an Industry which spends $180bn a year on R&D and we are valued at £20m

It is not going take many of the 'options' in our portfolio to come good to be absolutely game changing here

[amaretto1] 30/7/2020 07:35

Well that's good news ... all going to plan INDV .....

[amaretto1] 30/7/2020 07:33

Not really ... for starters ...We are talking a very small amount of options ....In the big picture ...... 795k

[golden prospect] 30/7/2020 07:31

From R&D update first human dosing C4X3256 starts August 2020

[18bt] 30/7/2020 07:22

I really hate option regrants - it makes a mockery of them as an incentive - it's just a reward for failure. They should at least have granted them fewer or issued them out of the money at, say, 30p

[amaretto1] 30/7/2020 07:17

Inside ramp over .. wake me back up 100 +++

[amaretto1] 30/7/2020 07:16

Clive D ... seen with Bill G !

[amaretto1] 30/7/2020 07:15

And let's face it ... we have had months to take advantage of the low low share price of under 20pPolar capital are clued up biotech investments ....They defo see here .. multi bag.

[amaretto1] 30/7/2020 07:13

Or a takeover buy a biggie !!!

[davemac3] 30/7/2020 00:38

Repricing the options probably means news is not imminent. It would look bad if they announced news that doubled the share price soon after reducing the option price.

[the stigologist] 29/7/2020 18:59

They've had months to re-price the options (they could have done them at 10p during COVID crash) but they've waited until a few days after INDV news (probably took a couple of days turnaround) AND the DAY BEFORE INDV results day when they will update on their R&D portfolio

I'm not expecting any S&V tomorrow but you can bet C4XD know what is coming for their business over the next 3 months

Chart setting up beautifully for a moonshoot off 50 day and 200 Moving Average and with a Golden Cross imminent

I've loaded up significantly here now and expect to see 100p in pretty short order

This time next year Rodders...

[t0pgrader] 29/7/2020 17:25

Was C4XD a Woodford stock?

[the stigologist] 29/7/2020 16:14

They are for Employees if you're going to incentivise do it properly not make them jump hoops

They didn't cause INDV lawsuit, covid or Woodford

[siennadelekat21] 29/7/2020 15:41

Just wondering if it would have been better to have those options set at a higher price than 16p - say something more like 30p?Would that not have given the board more of an incentive to drive that share price higher?Sienna

[the stigologist] 29/7/2020 15:24

Bullish

Options repricing just a few days after INDV news

They are calling the bottom

[golden prospect] 29/7/2020 13:57

22nd July 2020, C4XD's CSO, Craig Fox, speaks to European Biopharmaceutical Review on "The Promise of Drug Discovery".

[the stigologist] 29/7/2020 08:42

HZD capital markets day

will watch out for mention of synthetic lethality product

may be too early stage?