Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 26/4/2021 15:59

I think the implication is that if the market starts to believe that a steady/growing Actizone royalty stream is going to come in, then it will start to value that at a p/e of [edit] 25. This would mean 22p/share of value just for the Actizone stream at the point where the market believes £5m/year is likely. And that of course will be sometime before the £5m/year is actually reached, as markets anticipate.

I don't see that that particular stream has much to do with the future evolution of covid. It's going to be more about Solvay and its customers' skill at marketing Actizone products in a post-pandemic world.

So that would be 22p/share for Actizone on top of any other royalty streams and the base product business. Of course it may not happen, but the broker has been banging the drum on Actizone potential for some time, certainly from well before the pandemic.

finnCap note dated 11th April 2018:
"A 5% market share would imply $180m of revenues and licence revenues to Byotrol of $5m (£3.5m), assuming a 3% royalty"
At the time, finnCap were estimating the royalty in the 3%-5% range, and were basing their calculation on the market ex-US. Now they are talking about 5%, and Solvay is fairly clearly targeting the US as well as other markets.

[sikhthetech] 26/4/2021 15:45

Loaf,

"Actizone royalty stream alone of c.£5M would support a £100M valuation. (as it builds over the next few years)"

So what you saying the share price might(jam tomorrow) reach 20p in a few years time. which is dependent on covid...

;-)


During the biggest pandemic to hit the world, Income from IP/Royalty for fy2021 increased by £120k compared to fy2020, pre-pandemic.

£0.90m(fy2020 £0.78m)
current mcap £33m.

"We also recognised revenue and gross profit from IP agreements of £0.78m, lower than the prior year (which benefited from one large IP agreement with Solvay SA)."


Now, fy2021:
"Revenue for the year will include a contribution of over £0.9m from licensing and intellectual property transactions, including multi-year agreements with material guaranteed minimum sales and/or annual royalty payments"

[1gw] 26/4/2021 15:38

I was a bit confused by their maths there. As I read it they were calculating 25 x 5 = 100 but maybe I was misinterpreting. i.e. if they are valuing a stable royalty stream at a p/e of 25 then that would be a value of £125m when it gets to £5m/year wouldn't it? Or perhaps it's a pre-tax / post-tax thing: i.e. £125m pre-tax, £100m post-tax (£5m/year pre-tax, £4m/year post-tax)?

[loafofbread] 26/4/2021 15:35

They go further on P5 to say that the Actizone royalty stream alone of c.£5M would support a £100M valuation. (as it builds over the next few years)

[onehanded] 26/4/2021 15:24

yes interest growing, all brokers and covering of stock have a buy and price target ranges from 9p to 15p. So a good profit to be had..

[1gw] 26/4/2021 15:01

I'm intrigued by finnCap choosing to highlight Solvay's 5th May earnings release for a possible update on Actizone - and then also choosing to reiterate their (finnCap's) previous estimate of what Actizone royalty stream could amount to in a few years' time.

It seems an odd thing to do given the lack of information on Actizone in Solvay's full-year results release, unless they have reason to believe that there will be an update this time. Is it possible byotrol asked Solvay if byotrol could release some information with the TU and were told no, but we (Solvay) will update in May?

[loafofbread] 26/4/2021 14:54

As mentioned before we should be at a market cap of about £100M or 21p a share if you do a read across from Tristel.

Perhaps they should have used their paper when they had the chance!

250 views as of last night, now 411, so the word is getting out.

[sikhthetech] 26/4/2021 14:11

Boots...

despite 60people looking at 50ml bottle over past 24hrs..

only 5 have bought over past 24hrs.. compared to 70-80 during early days of pandemic..


Many other companies now offering sanitiser..

[sikhthetech] 26/4/2021 13:46

Jam tomorrow, dependent on covid, how far other companies are now in the same marketplace...


Sales slowed significantly in H2 compared to H1


Comparing H2 with H1.:

fy TU
revenues: £11m (H1 £6.7m)
dj Ebitda: £1.7m (H1 £1.2m)
cash: £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)


H1:



Sales/adj ebitda H2 v H1

Sales: H2 £4.3m (H1 £6.7m)
Adj Ebitda H2 £0.5m (H1 £1.2m)
cash £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)


Seems like they have missed the golden opportunity presented to them on a plate.

[riddlerone] 26/4/2021 13:00

What a difference between the two updates as well.If finncap still think TSTL is worth £260m (550p)and we are only worth £49m (11p) then I remain very cautious on their valuations.TSTL profit 20/21 approx £5m BYOT 20/21 profit approx £1.7m doesn't add up really bit like where the share price is now.

[football] 26/4/2021 12:38

but riddlerone the one bit of Trisel doing well is the bit Byotrol is into

[1gw] 26/4/2021 12:34

But might be helpful over here for those considering both stocks. Same broker, very different price targets relative to current shareprice.

[riddlerone] 26/4/2021 12:33

Not helped by finncap downgrading it to 550p

[supernumerary] 26/4/2021 09:55

I would also point out that for newcomers to the business the investormeetcompany results presentation from September is still well worth watching. CEO and CFO put on a very good team performance.

[rivaldo] 26/4/2021 09:26

I just wanted to say thanks for posting the excellent interview with the CEO - well worth watching. Here's the link again for those who missed it:

[1gw] 26/4/2021 09:04

Historically, byotrol (and I think Medimark) have had a stronger 2H, due I think to higher "bug" activity (and therefore sanitisation need) over the (UK) winter.

[football] 26/4/2021 08:51

Isn't our first half always top-heavy or am I thinking of another stock?

[1gw] 26/4/2021 08:08

One other aspect of optionality that is perhaps worth bearing in mind is the pool of unrecognised tax losses. This can be expected to benefit the bottom line as it is progressively recognised. In FY20 they recognised just £0.4m.

"Significant tax losses remain available to the Group; historically the Group has not recognised any deferred tax asset on these losses due to the unpredictability of the timing of future profit streams. Given the significant improvement in the trading position of the Group, the Board reassessed the appropriateness of recognising such an asset on the basis of forecast profits against which the losses can be offset and now consider it appropriate to recognise losses incurred to date as a deferred tax asset. Accordingly a deferred tax asset of £0.43m has been recognised (2019: £nil)"

"Deferred income tax assets have only been recognised to the extent that it is considered probable that they can be recovered against future taxable profits based on profit forecasts for the foreseeable future. The deferred income tax assets at 31 March 2020 above are expected to be utilised in less than one year.

At 31 March 2020 the Group had an unrecognised deferred tax asset relating to unutilised trading losses and other temporary differences of £3.57m (2019: £3.26m)."

[2vdm] 26/4/2021 08:07

Makes sense 1gw. Thanks

[onehanded] 26/4/2021 08:03

I see price target 11p, watching for any signs of a bid or just a re-rating...

[football] 26/4/2021 08:00

You have to ask why STT has spent so much time and so many coin's this weekend trying to hide this post?


riddlerone23 Apr '21 - 08:13 - 8009 of 8043

You have to laugh,what sort of person adds plus one coins to their own posts just to assist their own two bob short position.Keep wasting them stt we all see through them.

[wisecat2] 26/4/2021 07:54

New York New York. So good I had to say it twice. Sorry

[wisecat2] 26/4/2021 07:52

Excellent piece of work to start the week. Thank you for your contributions