Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[football] 22/4/2021 14:13

Byotrol shares fly on strong growth and highly confident outlook
22 April 2021, 11:54











Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Thursday 22nd April 2021
22 Apr, 13:23


Zak Mir highlights some of the most followed stocks on the small-cap London market and gives an overview in this video charting update.

Byotrol (BYOT)






Byotrol results to be 'substantially ahead' of previous year as pandemic drives demand for sanitisers

It follows 'exceptional demand' for its technologies due to the pandemic

[1gw] 22/4/2021 13:33

EC - finnCap refer to gross margin pressure due to raised input prices. Also there is an incremental £0.3m or so of licence revenue in 2H - they don't specify how much of that is ongoing royalty matched by cash, how much is ongoing royalty for FY21 to be paid in FY22 (so not matched by cash) and how much is booking of future guaranteed minimum payments (not matched by cash).

So between the raised input prices and perhaps the switch between product sales and licence revenue I suspect you may have lost a chunk of cash vs your model. finnCap comment that the margin pressure should unwind in FY22 due to higher selling prices and normalised input costs.

[effortless cool] 22/4/2021 13:14

The results heralded in this trading statement were a bit behind my expectations; in particular, net cash was about £1.5m lower than I had projected. Approximately £0.5m of that was due to higher inventories, which is fine. I would like to understand the remaining gap better but will have to wait until the prelims are published to do so.

I haven't had time to update my valuation model yet, but expect it to produce a result close to the current price. That perhaps misses the point, in any case, since my valuation is based on the 18 months following the last published figures, whereas the timeline for BYOT delivering real value is probably three years plus.

What these results do do is underpin the current valuation and limit downside. BYOT is a small (<£28m market cap at the time of writing), profitable business with a strong balance sheet. As such, even if it fails to progress as we hope, its downside is limited (or, more accurately, well-protected) at current levels. Upside, if things go right, is perhaps unquantifiable beyond stating that it is highly material.

That's the kind of biased bet I like.

[the ghost who walks] 22/4/2021 12:07

I recall Sikh suggesting sales would fall yoy, which they clearly didn't.

[football] 22/4/2021 11:50

STD. So you haven't picked up on the letter sent in by IDS and 10 MPs asking to the government about regulating the market and using Byotrols test has the standard testing method

[sikhthetech] 22/4/2021 11:44

Backs up the assertion that sales slowed significantly in H2 due to other companies entering the market... Why should this slowing down trend not continue?


From this morning's TU compared to H1:
Expected TU: £11m (H1 £6.7m)
adj Ebitda: £1.7m (H1 £1.2m)
cash: £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)



It seems to me that sales slowed significantly in H2:
Sales: H2 £4.3m (H1 £6.7m)
Adj Ebitda H2 £0.5m (H1 £1.2m)
cash £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)

H1:

[onehanded] 22/4/2021 10:45

11p price target set, should see this move next few day to 9p mark...

[sikhthetech] 22/4/2021 10:40

1gw,

You must be really disappointed they completely missed your expectations of £12m product sales and nowhere near your £17m(£12m product sales + Royalty/min payment guarantees).
I posted that sales have slowed summer onwards, after the initial surge. Looks like that is exactly what happened.
Given we've only 3 weeks into fy2022, perhaps you should start ramping for fy2022 ... oh you already have..lol
;-)


1gw14 May '20 - 17:37 - 5918 of 5960
Just as a reminder of the building blocks for this year:

£12m product sales (annual based on Mar-May run rate)
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment Americas byotrol24
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment SC Johnson Invirtu
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment Tristel/Cache
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment Solvay Actizone
£ m royalty Tristel new formulation (+ any increase in actizone supply sales over Apr-May rate)

Now some of the £m may be £k this year, but it seems to me byotrol is putting together an impressive portfolio of licence deals. And even so you could argue it is only just getting started: how many more deals can it do like the Tristel/Cache one to license non-core technologies to companies whose products are under regulatory threat? how many more geographies could it license byotrol24 in? can it license Invirtu in various geographies, or will meaningful royalties come in from the US red cross deal if Advanced Hygienics can find funding for marketing and production?

[onehanded] 22/4/2021 10:40

looks like 10p test will be coming the next weeks ...... big boys loading up....

[sikhthetech] 22/4/2021 10:38

Despite the biggest pandemic to hit the world in 100yrs..

Sales slowed considerably in H2, as predicted. H1 £6.7m, H2 £4.3m.
Fy adj Ebitda £1.7m(H1 £1.2m).

Looks like sales slowed, as expected.


It's nice to have an investment decision proven right so conclusively BY EVENTS.

[1gw] 22/4/2021 09:37

Nice share price reaction.

Perhaps the biggest impact is the introduction of FY22 forecasts (by finnCap) which show that far from being a flash in the pan, the FY21 performance is more of an acceleration of growth. There were those naysayers (e.g. STT, brownson) who thought byotrol might have missed the boat. FinnCap is suggesting that FY22 financial performance is going to involve a step up from FY21 rather than a falling back from a pandemic peak. In particular very healthy improvement in both adjusted and bottom line EPS and spectacular growth in cash.

I hope MIDAS does pick up on this. Cash will benefit from the recurring "guaranteed payments" with the various license agreements, while earnings should benefit from royalties and commission starting to come through in excess of those guaranteed minima. And actually the £1.2m of license income forecast for FY22 is encouraging as it must exclude all the guaranteed elements from FY21 agreements which will have been booked as revenue in FY21. Even so, finnCap say that they are not building in "material" royalty income from either Solvay or IRI, so that provides further upside potential.

[2vdm] 22/4/2021 09:20

"The Global Sanitizer Market is expected to grow by 22.6% until 2027" just appeared in my Inbox. Posted on the Loris G site

[football] 22/4/2021 09:05

So with the cash now being generated should they pay a dividend or should they bring a consumer product market cutting out the middleman

[riddlerone] 22/4/2021 08:52

Cbviously I wasn't refering to the share price but as a company I think today proves they are building on last years revenues which would give them reason to revisit their recommendation.Can understand your frustration though as we should have had an RNS on the new licenses no reason not to.

[rivaldo] 22/4/2021 08:31

A pleasing update - particularly:

"we expect to be able to announce further licensing and intellectual property agreements this year, across both Professional and Consumer businesses"

Not much to add to what others have said except to post Finncap's summary:

"Byotrol released a positive trading update for the year to March2021, indicating adjusted EBITDA of over £1.7m, which wasin line with our forecasts, based on revenues of more than £11.0m (FC est. £11.5m). After a volatile FY 2021, both in terms of revenue and input prices, a degree of normality has returned to monthly trading patterns. The secular shift towards the increased importance of infection prevention in its market, however, is expected to drive sustained demand for its products.

Having signed a number of multi-year licensing agreements in 2021, the company is confident also of further licensing and intellectual property agreements this year, across both its Professional and Consumer businesses, prompting us to introduce FY 2022 forecasts, which indicate c.16% and 23% adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth, respectively. We reiterate our target price of 11p, which still does not fully reflect the exploitation of its long-acting sanitisers by Solvay and Integrated Resources, and also offer upside to our new forecasts."

[riddlerone] 22/4/2021 08:06

I wonder if the Mail on Sunday will pick up on this,they do tend to update on their recommendations if they have done well.

[the ghost who walks] 22/4/2021 08:05

Doesn't someone buy this company out. That's my exit route - takeover in the teens

[loafofbread] 22/4/2021 08:01

A read across from Tristel is a market cap of £100M or 21p.

We probably have better IP.

Something needs to be done to raise the profile of Byotrol asap.

[best1467] 22/4/2021 08:00

High margin debt free great IP multi year growing Royalties and ripe for a takeout

[riddlerone] 22/4/2021 07:52

With the Finncap forcast for 2022 you have to look again to the Tristel valuation as a comparison and from my calculations we are way off where we should be.

[football] 22/4/2021 07:45

Byotrol cleaning up from increasing hygiene awareness

Daresbury-based hygiene group Byotrol said its annual results to March 31, 2021, will be “substantially ahead” of the previous year and broadly in line with market expectations.

In a trading update today, the AIM-listed specialist infection and prevention control company, said turnover is expected to be in excess of £11m and adjusted EBITDA more than £1.7m, compared with £6.1m and £0.3m, respectively, in 2020.

This strong result reflects the exceptional demand for the group’s technologies across all markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but also a secular shift towards the heightened importance of infection prevention in all its markets, which Byotrol expects to continue into the new financial year and beyond.


plus more

[football] 22/4/2021 07:42

Finncap still 11p

[riddlerone] 22/4/2021 07:41

Just reading that 1gw they are also only putting £1.2m in for license revenues for 2022 which surely is super conservative.