Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 20/3/2020 11:01

Back to our earlier discussion on uncertainty in the context of investment outcomes, sikhthetech. As recently as mid-February you seemed to be arguing that there would be no serious impact of the virus in the US. At the time Raymond James had just estimated a 20% probability of "notable widespread cases" there. Now what do you think the probability would be? So in investment analysis terms that means the high sales scenario for byotrol24 moves from 20% weighting in the Raymond James model (and it seemed like close to zero % in your model) to what, around 100% now? So expected value of byotrol24 up hugely. Yes, they have to deliver a deal at the end of the day, but the rewards if they can should be much higher than if they had delivered a deal in early February. ------------------------------------- 1gw 18 Feb '20 - 20:38 - 4519 of 5057 Edit 0 1 1 ‘Chernobyl-like’ response by China means ‘worst is yet to come’ for coronavirus, Raymond James says "In the United States the CDC has confirmed 15 cases of the coronavirus outbreak. But Raymond James said it estimates that it will be between 2 weeks and 4 weeks before there’s any clarity over the spread of the disease in the U.S., and said it’s increasing its likelihood of “notable widespread cases” in the U.S. from 1 in 7 to 1 in 5." hTtps://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/chernobyl-like-response-by-china-means-worst-is-yet-to-come-for-coronavirus-raymond-james-says.html ------------------------- sikhthetech 18 Feb '20 - 20:57 - 4520 of 5057 0 0 1 "In the United States the CDC has confirmed 15 cases of the coronavirus outbreak." Only 15 confirmed cases in USA in the 7 weeks since Covid-19 outbreak announced... Maybe China's strict quarantine is working.. also quick action taken by Health organisations worldwide, quarantine seems to be working... ---------------------------------------------- 1gw 18 Feb '20 - 21:19 - 4521 of 5057 Edit 0 3 1 Again, stt, you appear to be betraying your inability to understand or process uncertainty in the context of investment outcomes (as was so clear when we were discussing TLY, or indeed RTHM). The most likely outcome may well be that the outbreak never really gets going outside China - and I sincerely hope that is the case. But to me a 20% chance of "notable widespread cases" in the US would be very significant in the context of byotrol seeking an investment partner for byotrol24. You can be fairly sure that any companies looking seriously at being that investment partner will be running probabilistic as well as deterministic models to put a value on the product.

[sikhthetech] 20/3/2020 10:57

The initial patent was around 25yrs ago. The IPO was around 15yrs ago.. Still seeking partnerships.. losing Tesco contract a few months ago.. 25yrs is a long time to be hoping for a breakthrough... I'd hardly call that rushing to sign deals...

[1gw] 20/3/2020 10:51

Well thank goodness they didn't rush through a quick and dirty deal months ago. How much more do you think byotrol24 is worth today than it was last year? The value surely is the expected discounted value of future cashflows, and a few months' sales up front are going to be insignificant compared to capturing the value of higher cashflows for the product life.

[kaka47] 20/3/2020 10:51

Byot manufacturing is running on full speed they are just unable to keep up with the WORLDWIDE DEMAND

[kaka47] 20/3/2020 10:50

You live in the past Rapid demand means buyers lining up to sign

[kaka47] 20/3/2020 10:47

Mundia demand is outstripping supply

[sikhthetech] 20/3/2020 10:47

1gw, Yes so huge opportunity missed.. As I said they have been seeking a partnership for months long before Covid-19. The situation wasn't rapidly changing then.. Plus a 2nd national US retailer walked last MAY..Nearly a year ago.

[1gw] 20/3/2020 10:37

Have you ever tried to negotiate a partnership or sale deal in a rapidly changing environment sikhthetech? Not only do the lead protagonists have to reach agreement through negotiation or auction process, but then the agreement may have to be ratified on both sides through various levels of management up to the boards. The boards have a fiduciary duty to shareholders and if they feel the deal they are presented with, at the time they see it, is not in the interests of their shareholders due to a material change in circumstances since it was agreed then they need to reject it and ask the negotiators to try again. If ever there were a material change in circumstances I would say the pandemic would be it. So any delay in closing a deal in the US or elsewhere may not be down to lack of interest on the part of potential partners or purchasers, but instead down to additional rounds of negotiation and/or bidding due to the rapidly changing circumstances.

[sikhthetech] 20/3/2020 10:37

Kaka, Brew dog are supplying for free.. Cutting into Byot's potential revenue..

[sikhthetech] 20/3/2020 10:29

1gw "byotrol is not going to be able to do that organically and therefore the optimal solution to me would appear to be partnership" They are still seeking partnerships .. Opportunity lost...

[the ghost who walks] 20/3/2020 10:24

I think we had a bit of profit taking but now ready for next leg.

[kaka47] 20/3/2020 10:18

Byot manufacturing is running on full speed they are just unable to keep up with the WORLDWIDE DEMAND ...if a brewer like BrewDog can get supplies and manufacture sanitiser why would hardcore sanitiser manufacturing company like BYOT would miss an opportunity of a life time. Just think...Boom Times

[the ghost who walks] 20/3/2020 10:18

Agree with this.

[1gw] 20/3/2020 10:16

The bigger picture here sikhthetech is surely whether they can strike a deal to bring byotrol24 (and other byotrol) products to the market at scale. The value of the IP to both byotrol and the world can be maximised I would have thought by massive and rapid scaling up in production. byotrol is not going to be able to do that organically and therefore the optimal solution to me would appear to be partnership with (or outright sale to) a company which can ramp up production quickly and massively. I may of course be reading too much into the words "available to everyone" but that to me sounds as though they are at least contemplating something which would be massive in scale.

[sikhthetech] 20/3/2020 10:10

1gw "Sold out" That's the problem.. Huge missed opportunity.. They have supply chain issues as well... "Our greatest concern is that a no-deal exit could create supply chain issues, especially on incoming raw materials, so we watch political progress with some interest and will take precautionary steps should we need to." https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2018-Annual-Report.pdf

[grahamwales] 20/3/2020 10:03

1gw Can you answer. Says on their accounts that confirmation statement is overdue. What happens if the don’t submit it. Also notice they have negative retained earnings perhaps 1gw can explain what that means.

[1gw] 20/3/2020 09:58

That's interesting. I see they've changed the message on the byotrol24 home page, which now reads: "byotrol24 is currently SOLD OUT. We appreciate your patience as we work to make BYOTROL24 available to everyone. An announcement will be posted here and on our Facebook page when we expect product to be available for purchase." hTtps://www.byotrol24.com/ That doesn't sound like they're expecting byotrol24 to disappear when the Target trial finishes. Especially the bits "available to everyone" and "when we expect".

[kaka47] 20/3/2020 09:50

BYOT Business is BOOMING in America fully expecting big store signups...Byotrol posted this on Facebook on February 3rd Byotrol24 is currently sold out in the USA due to overwhelming demand from the coronavirus outbreak.We are hoping to replenish stock by the end of the month https://www.facebook.com/132867564090104/posts/492106784832845/?d=n

[kaka47] 20/3/2020 09:45

BYOTROL24 is SCIENTIFICALLY PROVEN to kill Coronavirus PLUS keep surfaces sanitized for 24 hours with a worry-free surface cleaning formula. Visit byotrol24.com for info.

[grahamwales] 20/3/2020 09:45

Just IMAGINE the POSITIVE IMPACT after the PANDEMIC. That's when this will crash as there will be no demand then lol.

[kaka47] 20/3/2020 09:18

Byot POSITIVE Momentum BEFORE COVID19Just IMAGINE the POSITIVE IMPACT after the PANDEMIC ...Intrerim results Sales of Invirtu hand sanitisers have increased across all of our business units, with very little evidence of quality competition;-- We have just launched Actizone-based surface disinfectants into Professional and Petcare channels and initial customer feedback is very positive.Sales of Invirtu alcohol-free hand sanitiser increased across all Professional customers. We have now secured three UK hospital trusts on very limited direct sales resource but are focussing mostly on white label and distributor relationships where capex and service investments are significantly lower. Momentum is now building with this product and competition to date is limited.

[sikhthetech] 20/3/2020 09:00

Can you imagine what would happen if they fail to publish their accounts and their accounts are STILL not qualified.. The shares will be suspended as they were last Sept. "The Directors have made every effort to resolve this matter to our auditorâ„¢s satisfaction, without success. Whilst it may have been possible eventually to obtain a suitable response, the length of time this may have required was indeterminate, and the Board took the decision that the interests of shareholders were best served by publishing the accounts with the consequential qualified audit opinion but resulting in the lifting in the suspension from trading on AIM. Since the year end we have transferred over £86,000 of the aggregate amount from the bank concerned to another commercial bank and intend to transfer the balance shortly" https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-10-11-Posting-of-accounts-and-restoration-B-3.6.pdf

[brownson] 20/3/2020 08:59

Kaka. A very appropriate name

[sikhthetech] 20/3/2020 08:53

1gw "Can you imagine what demand there must be for an effective but "kind to skin" hand sanitiser" Is it available from Boots, any chemists or Supermarkets... NO..so where's the demand for the 'kind to skin' product?? Keep imagining..

[grahamwales] 20/3/2020 08:44

1gw Yeah they buy hand cream pmsl