Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 13/2/2020 10:07

1gw,
Obviously you won't be selling any anytime soon, will you..


Remember trades are traceable..
;-)

[kcowe] 13/2/2020 09:52

been a shortage for a few days .

[1gw] 13/2/2020 09:49

What's the largest amount available on a "quote and deal" basis STT? Have you tried buying a larger amount than that? What price would you have to pay if you wanted to get 500k or 1m?

Do you think this might indicate a shortage of shares available at the current bid price?

[sikhthetech] 13/2/2020 09:41

Amazing how the share price moves so much on small trades...
;-)

[philjeans] 13/2/2020 09:03

3p in sight and climbing

BUY

[brownson] 13/2/2020 08:22

It's down to a change in the way they count cases.The true picture will emerge over a few days.

[kcowe] 13/2/2020 07:13

new cov rates explode in china 14850 new cases reported biggest ever and deaths increase by 242 ... so sad .

[slicethepie] 12/2/2020 22:26

He needs to get to 25000 posts to get the equivalent of a blue Peter badge, bless.

[sikhthetech] 12/2/2020 22:04

EXCELLENT NEWS.

Washington Post - seems like the rate of new cases has slowed...rate of new infections falls for 8th day in a row..

RATE OF NEW CORONAVIRUS INFECTION SLOWS, BUT CHINA REMAINS LARGELY SHUT DOWN

"But a reduction in the number of new cases reported for a second consecutive day is offering some hope"


" The number of new infections in China outside the epidemic hotspot of Hubei province has fallen for the eighth day in a row, even as the total number of deaths reaches new highs."

[1gw] 12/2/2020 21:31

So why did the shareprice go all the way down to 1.5p or so? Partly it may be some disappointment that no one-off deals were delivered as hinted at by the end of FY19 or concern that the FY19 accounts were qualified, or even disappointment with the pace of the US experiment. I would argue that a very big factor though has been institutional selling by Ruffer and Fidelity. According to the FY18 annual report, Ruffer had 56m shares (14%) and Fidelity 25m (6%) as of 22nd August 2018. By the FY19 annual report, as of 11th October 2019 Ruffer was not listed as a 3%+ shareholder while Fidelity had 21m shares. Having gone below 5% (declared as of 30th Sept 2019) it seems credible that Fidelity may just have carried on reducing until they were out.

80m shares is a lot for the market to absorb, if no other institution is prepared to take on a meaningful stake. And I suspect what may have happened is that gradually private investors (and management + directors) have been taking up the overhang. Some of those have declared 3%+ stakes and others are below that threshold.

What seems to have happened with the coronavirus news is that a lot of smaller private investors have come in and their buying plus perhaps a change in sentiment among any remaining would-be institutional sellers has removed the overhang. The shareprice is now moving largely on sentiment among those smaller private investors I think – not huge volumes but apparently an excess of demand over supply.

So you now have two sets of investors here who have taken or increased positions since the Medimark acquisition. Those holding generally larger positions who believe in the longer-term recovery story under David Traynor and the potentially huge “option” value in a US deal or Solvay Actizone taking off. And those recently arrived on the back of the coronavirus scare.

Without company news the shareprice may well move up and down with the mood of the coronavirus crowd and their associated twitter/bulletin board activity. But I would guess most of the larger investors believe the pre-Medimark shareprice was not overvaluing the company and so won’t be rushing to sell out, although there may be some profit-taking selling into strength.

What happens if we do now get news of a good US deal, or even a smaller licensing of non-core technology? What happens if an institution decides it wants to build a position, either on the back of such a deal or just now that the shareprice seems to have stopped going down? If 4p was fair value before the Medimark acquisition, shouldn't fair value now be higher, especially if a good deal is landed?

[1gw] 12/2/2020 21:28

One way of looking at byotrol “value” is to look at what’s happened since just before the Medimark acquisition (August 2018). Then the shareprice was around 4p (shares to Medimark were issued at 4.1p although by the close before the rns the price had fallen to around 3.4p and they recovered to 3.65p at the close on the day of the rns).

Byotrol expected to pay up to £4.5m for Medimark, including debt and if Medimark hit the max earnout it would have produced £650k EBITDA this year (FY20). So around 6.9x FY20 EBITDA.

I think Byotrol is actually paying around £3.2m (if I add the £0.4m debt to the £2.76m in the 30th Jan RNS). FY19 (Medimark) EBITDA seems to have been close to £500k and I think they must have been at least £100k shy of the £650k target for FY20 since there is no FY20 earn-out (although there's a reference to carry forward of shortfall which may mean they could be less than £100k down). So it seems reasonable to assume £500k EBITDA in FY20 given the comment in the interims that Medimark was running ahead of FY19. Which means they would be getting Medimark for around 6.4x FY20 EBITDA.

So on the face of it they’re getting Medimark slightly cheaper than they expected in terms of FY20 EBITDA multiple. Which should be value positive, particularly if Medimark is still growing (i.e. if FY20 EBITDA comes in higher than FY19). So why isn't the shareprice above 4p now, especially given the coronavirus environment? (tbc)

[cumnor] 12/2/2020 21:07

Sikh-are you desperate or what?

[kcowe] 12/2/2020 20:47

Large late reported trades from yesterday 2 purchases of 1mill apiece , 1 1.1 mill sell ' looking good for tomorrow .

[sikhthetech] 12/2/2020 20:20

Regarding the FD buying 500k shares..

How does 500k compare to the 3x 1m delayed 'sells' reported today...
Will we get a rns?

[kcowe] 12/2/2020 18:35

1st case of covid -19 in london .... getting worse mmm

[sikhthetech] 12/2/2020 18:28

"finnCap 31-1-2020 reiterated their target price of 7p,"

They previously said 9p and now 7p for over 18months!!!


So let's have a look at how they have done in the past.


fy period, share price on their note, Target price, where share price was following fy - March..

fy2017- Aug 2017, share price 4.6p, TP 9p... actual 3p, down 66% from their tp

fy2018-Aug 2018, share price 3.4p, TP 7p... actual 2p, down 71% from their tp

fy2019-Sept 2019 Byot results were delayed due to irregularities in their accounts..
sp 2p, tp 7p....current 2.57p..



Read the Finncap reports and FORM YOUR OWN OPINION...

Free to access

[slicethepie] 12/2/2020 17:47

Everyone but one believe that is possible!

[fillipe] 12/2/2020 17:40

Just a reminder folks that finnCap 31-1-2020 reiterated their target price of 7p, for BYOT.

f

[red army] 12/2/2020 17:17

JOHN that link does not take you to broker note.

[sikhthetech] 12/2/2020 16:10

500k is also only 1/2 of one of 1gw's top ups... Hardly breaking the bank...



1gw - 14 Nov 2019 - 14:16:58 - 3843 of 4325 BYOTROL-CAN DELIVER AMAZING RESULTS - BYOT
2 x 500k buys (at 1.72p, timed at 13:26 and 13:27). Probably delayed reporting by 1 hour.

[elited10] 12/2/2020 15:34

Another fair point, only 0.11 percent of company, but maybe he's not paid the same as the CFO of Unilever.

[kcowe] 12/2/2020 15:08

This Virus will rear its ugly head over the coming weeks no doubt .... where byot then?