Business Post Share Discussion Threads

[long and short] 30/11/2005 12:29

You need to include exceptionals - which are becoming a recurring cost and therfore not exceptional.

On this basis the p/e is very high. also do not think future dividends are a certainty.

[meshiey] 29/11/2005 15:14

bargain - as good as gold 6.3% more or less guaranteed divi....yippee - who needs to keep money in the bank!

[horsemike] 25/11/2005 19:56

Networker is right when he says confidence is non-existant, but talk of 228p is ridiculous. Lets look at the facts.

On current Broker forecasts for end March 2006, profits before tax and exceptionals is 14.7m. This assumes UK-Mail (growth part of business) will come in at around 2m. I believe UK-Mail will deliver more, but let us assume that 2m is the correct figure. We therefore have a PE of 15 on a price of £3. If it drops to £2.80 it will be on an average PE for the sector of 14.

But I do not believe this share is 'average' for the following reasons.

(1) The forecast profits for March 2007 is substantially higher at 23.2m.
On a PE of 14 the price would then be £4.40.
(2) There are still takeover rumours in the air.
(3) The Dividend yield is over 6% at the current price of £3.10.

The time to buy shares is when sentiment is at its lowest. It would appear that this time is very close, if not already here.

[lord r] 25/11/2005 16:54

Scum

Whats your case for 228 on fundamentals.Does this include a 3rd profit warning & loss of Fed-ex contract?

[scumdog] 25/11/2005 09:50

two two eight.

[blackday] 25/11/2005 05:55

umm me thinks that this share may go up next week before going ex div-only 8sessions before ex-div. sorry 2 cheap

[networker] 23/11/2005 17:32

Confidence in this share is non-existent at the moment. Even concerted Director buying has not improved sentiment. Likely to remain unloved for some time. Potential buyers are adopting the stance that they can afford to wait until things actually have improved, rather than buying now in hope and expectation. In short, nobody currently trusts the management.

[nabeel4975] 23/11/2005 14:48

blackday,

There can not be a third profit warning after interim results, methinks. We have the numbers now instead of expectations before.

Also the statement indicates:
"The Board remains confident of the Group's potential and, accordingly,
has declared an unchanged interim dividend per share of 6.4p"

With a div of 20/320 = 6% (more than the Bank's interest) the share is worth holding long term, you may even strik lucky if the story of Exel is repeated. One thing we have to agree about is that consolidation makes a lot of sense for post and delivery groups, so..

Good luck.

[ydderf] 23/11/2005 14:11

with recent director buying you can rule out a bid for now i think - why not just buy it for value, like the MASTER!

[blackday] 22/11/2005 18:01

at this price u knw there will be takeover rumours. long term is a great business. below 3pounds id be in-but i thk price is overdone-i suspose waiting 4 the third warning cld b the time 2 buy.

[saltedcrab] 16/11/2005 08:28

fly to 430p imho

[rum and coke] 15/11/2005 22:54

Well, if you read the start of this thread you will see that I have met Peter Kane and know quite a lot about him (most of which I could not post). He is a very nice guy and a good businessman. He was in sem-retirement in 2000 and came back to build up the business. He is of an age now that I think he will want to get out from this over the next year or so as he has interests in the south of France and the West Indies. He did own more than 50% and his brother owned a bit as well. My guess is that the rumours of a takeover are possibly true. It is an interesting business as BPG own the main hubs and franchise out many of the local operations. This has always let them expand without requiring as much capital. I like the business very much and I still think it will do well in the long term. Short term I expect it to rise.

It has not done bad. I started this thread in Dec 2000 and it has risen for about 4 1/2 years almost continuously.

[scumdog] 15/11/2005 22:34

Where do you think the BPG share price is going short term, Haystack?
I think it a mite suspicious that "takeover rumours" were in abundance a week or so prior to the latest profits warning.

[rum and coke] 15/11/2005 22:19

He is far too young - 9.

I was trying to play it this afternnon. It was all I could do to tune it. The noise was incredible. I had the amp turned up far too high. It was very difficult to make the chords. I have also got a DVD telling you how to play. It looks easy on the DVD. I was watching Jimmy Henrix the other night playing his Stratocaster and it looks so simple. There can't be much to it.

[scumdog] 15/11/2005 22:18

Well I hope the recipient doesn't read this BB!

[rum and coke] 15/11/2005 22:13

A Christmas present. I am not even slightly musical.

[scumdog] 15/11/2005 22:05

You joining a rock band haystack?

[rum and coke] 15/11/2005 17:23

I received something today from a company using Business Post. It was a Fender Stratocaster. The company that I bought it from was in Newcastle and I am a long way south. I bought it yesterday and I could track it from the moment it was collected to here. It was collected at 16:27 yesterday and logged on to the van, then into the warehouse and onto another van. It came down overnight and arrived and was logged in to another warehouse at 4:15am. It was put on a van at 6:05 and delivered this morning. The email from the retail company had the tracking number and web address of Business Post. The web site even had the name of the van driver. I checked the website after receiving my parcel and within two minutes it was showing it delivered.

[saltedcrab] 15/11/2005 17:12

there's much more sold on the internet other than ebay

bidder in the wings?

[sandbank] 15/11/2005 15:57

As a bit of an E-Bay trafficker myself and a business owner I have to say I wouldn't have a clue how to dispatch stuff via Business Post - I use old fashioned Royal Mail. I also buy stuff on Ebay and have not yet had a consignment sent to me via BPG - so I'm wary of the claims that BPG is cashing in on internet trading fulfillment...unless someone knows better. If so I would be interested to know.

[elsworth] 15/11/2005 15:29

wow......like i said , FREE MONEY till £4/£4.30.......then a bid at £5.50/£6.50

[xxxadv] 15/11/2005 15:20

well guys - i was in at 3.18 10,000 and ?

[stoic warrior] 15/11/2005 15:05

... And out at 323.4 ... I do believe there will be more downside on this share ...