Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 09/2/2022 23:20

The thing you are missing is that since selling the slice of the claim the state of Argentina's finances have got much worse. Also the buyer may have overpaid.

I think its wrong to value Petersen much higher than they have on the b/s. Just my opinion though.

Sorry I know we should just ramp on advfn but it's better to be realistic

[syoun2] 09/2/2022 18:20

Even though half that already on balance sheet investors will look at that as as a near 1.6 billion hitting bottom line.

[williamcooper104] 09/2/2022 15:40

That's right Those investors will have been promised a minimum 15 IRR (that's a guess) So doesn't take too long before the min settlement price that BUR could easily accept is near double the balance sheet value

[kuk1doh] 09/2/2022 13:01

In the YPF case I understood that the pricing of the portion of the claim previously sold was the determining factor in the balance sheet carrying value. That was the milestone used for fair value accounting.

That event was a few years ago… and a lot of progress has been made and the case is on the verge of settlement/summary judgment/trial. I’d bet a follow on auction now of a further slice of the assets would achieve a much better price.

[rar100] 09/2/2022 12:40

101uk, thanks for the link, worked perfectly

[loglorry1] 09/2/2022 12:34

The probability that BUR assigns is more about how far the case has progressed and any big milestones it has passed than an assesment of how likely they are to win.

[ptolemy] 09/2/2022 12:22

Interesting document. It says:

"Burford holds the YPF claims on its balance sheet with an embedded twenty-four percent probability of success."

Not clear whether that is probability of winning or winning and being paid, though common sense suggests the later.

[al101uk] 09/2/2022 12:06

Try this one:



Direct link to the report.

[rar100] 09/2/2022 11:37

Donald,
Apologies for my cynical post, it wasn't personal, and I'm glad you write positively on BUR.
I tried the twitter link (deep dive into BUR) and it didn't work - have you another link?

[scubadiverr] 09/2/2022 11:30

China is also seeking to supply capital and gain leverage.https://dialogochino.net/en/trade-investment/argentina-joins-china-belt-and-road-initiative/

[loglorry1] 09/2/2022 11:26

I think BUR win. How, if and when the collect is a different thing. Currently the only body paying is the IMF as they are the only ones keeping Argintina solvent to the tune of $40bn. I doubt they'd agree to increase that to pay legal awards.

[donald pond] 09/2/2022 10:06

It's interesting for sure. But remember the background. Argentina lists YPF on NYSE with detailed provisions about what shareholders get in the event YPF is nationalised. YPF find huge gas field, Argentina nationalises, pays off the 51% and tells the other 49% to go swing. I can't see a settlement that gives Argentina any wriggle room. And if there isn't a settlement I can't think of a case more suited to punitive damages. With pleadings for summary judgment due over next 4-6 weeks things could move very quickly.

[loglorry1] 09/2/2022 09:52

@dp if BUR win they can petition for a winding up of YPF based on non-payment. Their claim would be junior to existing debt in YFP so in effect they would probably get nothing. Further the Argintine courts would probably just ingore the winding up petition. The only thing they might manage with YPF is if there were foreign assets like a tanker or soemthing but as far as I know there isn't any.

It would be similar to the situation with Cineplex and Cineworld.

[loglorry1] 09/2/2022 09:50

hxxps://www.emethvaluecapital.com/_files/ugd/b2ee4c_d8d3433827ac482ea4648323a2e6ecdf.pdf

[donald pond] 09/2/2022 09:44

Interesting log, though whether that is Burfords problem is a different question. If they and Argentina owe Burford say $5bn, the argument that they can't pay because rather than making $7bn a year in profits selling oil at international rates they sell it to Argentina at cost might not convince the US court.

[kannerwas] 09/2/2022 09:42

Re 22099
DP, I think you mean YPF is also a defendant.

[loglorry1] 09/2/2022 09:36

@donald I hopld YPF bonds in size. They are incredibly indebted and almost defaulted on the last debt cliff. They had to negotiate with lenders. Further they do not sell their oil/gas at international prices as most of it goes to in country sales and the pump prices are regulated (lowered).

The extra 200kbopd is miles off they are still sorting out exploration farmins. Vacca murca ramp up is sooner but that requires a lot of Capex they don't really have.

[donald pond] 09/2/2022 09:11

Btw, people talk about enforcement in the Petersen case. They seem to forget that YPF is also a plaintiff. They produce oil: 250,000 barrels a day. I suspect that it's production costs are low so chances are that's at a $70 margin per barrel, or close to $20m profit a day. And they have plans to add another 200k bopd. It may even be that Burford never need to go after Argentina

[donald pond] 09/2/2022 06:42

This is worth reading, a US fund manager with a very good track record does a deep dive into Burfordhttps://twitter.com/stockthoughts81/status/1491129976690987009?s=21

[rar100] 08/2/2022 21:41

Oh good, one bit of POSSIBLE good news in 3 years, still of course a long way into the future and all maybe this maybe that...yawn

[syoun2] 08/2/2022 18:34

Thanks Donald , appreciated

[donald pond] 08/2/2022 11:15

Ok, so it's been agreed that there's an application for summary judgment, either side can apply, and then trial 115 days after, if judge doesn't give summary judgment. But given timescales my estimate is that the summary judgment pleadings will be filed between the end of March and mid April. Judgment I would have thought by mid-May at latest. Trial if needed by start of September.

[lomax99] 08/2/2022 09:14

My bad, your description is indeed more apt. In the UK we positively encourage it, and certain sections of the UK press (the pink one, IC) positively lord them.

[donald pond] 08/2/2022 07:52

"Argentina, YPF, Petersen, Eton and Burford, present, after almost 6 years litigating, the final schedule of writs prior to the possible start of trial.
- They admit that Judge Preska may decide the case without trial very soon.
- They will present all information of Discovery."

[maddox] 07/2/2022 22:38

Hi lomax,

I wouldn't describe them as 'toothless and ineffectual' - the LSE, fully backed-up by the FCA, actively defended the short-sellers from Burford's legal action to reveal their identities. 'In cahoots with the short-sellers' is a more apt description.