Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 15/7/2021 12:59

And of course when I say NAV I mean as per last balance sheet date - will be very interesting to see what NAV is in 8 weeks time

[williamcooper104] 15/7/2021 12:53

The valuation gap was closed in the last 2 years The share price got down to a big discount to NAV excluding the fair value of Peterson That was the ridiculous value discount We are up almost 2x from that point

[williamcooper104] 15/7/2021 12:47

There's a large valuation gap only if you think BUR should be valued on a P/E basis (despite no forward guidance and a lot of volatility in the GAAP earnings) If you value it as an investment trust then it's at a modest premium to NAV It deserves a large premium to NAV (IMO) so arguably there's still a valuation gap, but it's not huge And yes a big Peterson win could easily double or triple the SP; but the PV of that is reflected in the NAV

[riverman77] 15/7/2021 12:21

I think they will only truly recover when they start seeing some big case wins come through - they really ramped up investment around 2018 but so far these cases have only come through in dribs and drabs, and Covid has unfortunately delayed things further. I am really hoping to finally see some progress in the H1 results, but let's see then.

[chester9] 15/7/2021 12:05

Management have responded to MW by becoming more transparent about the way they work. They have listed in States, held compressive video chats. They have always been very positive on outlook. The two problems are the size of the prize with the Peterson case, even if they win Argentina will potentially wiggle and delay for years. The second is they can not RNS wins because of appeals, etc. Their updates show continuing growth and success. It's a slow burner but most holders know it's a potentially great share to hold for years and years. September update is less that 8 weeks away. The share price will respond soon.

[time_traveller] 15/7/2021 10:39

Two years is quite a long time for a company to be supposedly so completely mispriced - leading to questions as to the management's failure to close this valuation gap, and whether someone else will come along and do it for them...

[maddox] 14/7/2021 23:37

LBH the performance ratios of the quoted LitFin firms is absolutely spectacular. The reason that they're on so ridiculously low valuations is that to most investors, even the professionals, LitFin is about as well understood as Bitcoin.

This should not be a point of complaint or continual moaning, but seen as one of those once in a lifetime investment opportunities, that with hindsight you'd wished you'd hocked your wife's wedding ring to get more exposure.

[williamcooper104] 14/7/2021 11:07

The biggest complaint I've heard from litigators is that the LitFin funders are too conservative Seems that Therium are being more aggressive In the early days of the industry being too conservative was the only way as you quickly lose confidence if you have some early losses But right now I'm comfortable with somewhat higher losses in pursuit of big wins

[etarip] 14/7/2021 10:45

There is an article in the The London Times today about the financing of litigation with Burford Capital highlighted.

[tradertrev] 14/7/2021 08:30

I recently met an Appeal Court judge who said he thought Lit Fin was a very good thing and that the only real problem he had with it was that it was difficult to use in small cases because of the economics.

[williamcooper104] 13/7/2021 23:30

For big-name clients and lots of small ones, litigation funders are earning their placehttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/034734a2-e3ea-11eb-a821-58982b1c936d?shareToken=7879c11e869fdc64c784d6c508c4d819Paywall and can't cut n paste it on my phone app Reasonably positive article - arguing that litfin becoming an established asset class/generally produce for the public good (as opposed to ambulance chasing stereotype)

[prokartace] 13/7/2021 14:45

Sighs of stability. We need to see a short-term higher low and a higher high and I will be satisfied enough to risk another trade

[time_traveller] 09/7/2021 08:55

Maybe nowadays, I should be charting the NYSE BUR, rather than London; the latter didn't work very well; throwing the kitchen sink at it around 750p, but a bounce off the round $10 would be nice to see.

[williamcooper104] 08/7/2021 17:16

Which is a shame as I'm getting a great yield lending out some of my other positions

[williamcooper104] 08/7/2021 17:15

And at 1.12 percent, most of which is just one fund, Bur isn't really shorted Even at the height of MWs attacks the short interest wasn't that high

[tradertrev] 08/7/2021 17:03

You would think this would be one of the most dangerous shares to short there is. One day we could switch our screens on and find an announcement about Petersen (or some other case we don't know about) that could make the shares double.

[rar100] 08/7/2021 15:19

BUR win more cases than they lose, there's a lot of cases and big money riding on them and some of them must have come to the end and paid out...

[lazg] 08/7/2021 11:26

Yeah, starting to think someone knows something.

[time_traveller] 08/7/2021 11:17

Bloody downward ratchet these days - down in a red market, and down in a blue market. Bang-up job Bogart has done of reviving investor interest, post MW ... NOT!

[riverman77] 07/7/2021 14:57

By my rough estimation, if this keeps drifting lower at the same pace until H1 results in September, then it would go to around 680p. Obviously if there is a wider market sell off or some bad news it could go a lot lower, but otherwise that seems a reasonable floor until the inevitable post-results surge.

[kinfofbkue2302] 07/7/2021 11:10

Just a bunch of retail accounts selling again no relevance whatsoever on the long term price

[lomax99] 07/7/2021 10:20

Yet again on minimal volume traded c 43k

[time_traveller] 07/7/2021 09:51

I don't have L2, but I'm guessing most of the selling is the same seller, (presumably hedged or with a counterparty, as they don't seem to care what price it goes for.)

[prokartace] 07/7/2021 09:45

No idea what that was but same down trend in the end

[kaos3] 07/7/2021 08:22

wow - trading got interesting