Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[375uv] 10/10/2022 11:44

If Judge Preska rules in Petersen/Eton's favor, don't expect to get paid until 1Q24. This government will either appeal (again) or defy court orders. Remember, in 2014, Argentina defied a Supreme Court Order and a lower court, Preska's predecesor, issued injunction orders on Argentina's sovereign debt payments, forcing the sovereign into default. Still, the government refused to pay, prolonging the default until April 2016.

This government is the same as the one that defied Judge Griesa's orders in 2014. This government will not pay BUR a single cent. Period.

I have been telling our clients that BUR should start considering the possibility of initiating talks with Argentina's presidential candidates. Talk to them. Explain them the situation. Tell them that BUR is going to make Argentina's life miserable until it pays. Force embargo orders (little assets to seize). Paul Singer did exactly this in 2014 and, following October's 2015 elections, a new market-oriented government took over and the very first thing it did was pay holdout creditors $9.5 billion. Argentina issued four bonds worth $16.5 billion and used proceeds to settle with all creditors.

Argentina's elections are exactly 12 month away. Highly unlikely the current government will be reelected and even more unlikely pay a possible YPF judgment (Teinver case remains unpaid).

Burford will get paid. Have no doubt about it. But not before putting up a fight and picking up the phone. Major investment banks will be involved.

One last thing: Don't look at Arg's foreign reserves. Those $40 billion are gross reserves. They include dollars that the government is prohibited from using such as dollar savings from citizens, swaps with China, loans from other countries. The government does not have dollars. That's why it has applied strict FX controls. Private estimates put liquid reserves at $2 billion.

Hope this helps.

Cheers.

[chester9] 10/10/2022 09:26

This one goes back to 2003

Burford Capital is funding an ICC claim against Nigeria reportedly worth US$400 million arising from the purported settlement of a prior arbitration over a hydropower project. The Guernsey-registered funder confirmed to GAR that it is financing Nigerian company Sunrise Power & Transmission Company’s latest claim, as reported recently in the local press. Sunrise accuses Nigeria of reneging on a 2020 agreement that purported to settle a US$2.3 billion ICC arbitration over the Mambilla hydropower project. Nigeria argues the settlement is not valid. The dispute has its origins in a 2003 contract for the construction of the Mambilla hydropower plant in the Nigerian state of Taraba. The build-operate-transfer contract was allegedly awarded in 2003 to Sunrise and a predecessor of Chinese state-owned entity Sinohydro. Sunrise later engaged Sinohydro to work on the plant under an EPC contract.In 2017, however, Nigeria signed a new US$5.8 billion EPC contract for the plant directly with Sinohydro and other Chinese contractors, prompting Sunrise to complain it had been wrongly excluded from the project.

[donald pond] 10/10/2022 09:18

Exactly muz. It is a world of pain for Argentina and there is a whole industry based around enforcing their debts. If Burford win they will end up having to take a big haircut if they want a quick settlement but I'd have thought they could get 50% pretty quickly one way or the other

[muzmanoz] 10/10/2022 09:11

As I understand it, it is not suspension of the clearing system. You apply for a court order, and if granted any argentinian transactions in us dollars passing through us clearing banks are held against the value of the debt.

[donald pond] 10/10/2022 09:06

Log,I used to be head of a legal department at part of a global bank: we would get orders most weeks to identify accounts belonging to sovereign governments. Once you have a globally recognised court order you can follow globally recognised enforcement procedures. It has nothing to do with the IMF.

[loglorry1] 10/10/2022 08:57

But is there any evidence out there that failing to pay a US judgetment has resulted in suspension of using the US$ clearing system?

The IMF are desparately trying to keep Argintina afloat. They would not support such a step as it would undermine their enormous loans.

[donald pond] 10/10/2022 07:45

There is a difference between defaulting on sovereign debt and defaulting on a breach of contract judgment that has gone to the US Supreme court: in the former, people chose to lend to you, in the latter, they did not.
Remember also that any dollar payment made anywhere in the world has to pass through a US clearing bank: in other words, its not just assets, any Argentina would have to stop using dollars. And also, there is the possibility that the judgment is made equally against YPF. And the same rules apply to them: any dollar payments could be seized.
Ultimately, it is very difficult to operate in the global world without access to the dollar settlement system. Argentina can try, but at some point history shows they come to the table.
And they cannot default: this won't be a government bond with terms of repayment that can be renegotiated among all holders, but a court ordered debt that can never be evaded.

[lomax99] 09/10/2022 22:53

Well someone ended stumping up on the Teinver SA airline case, which was also against Argentina:



I think they sold the debt on for just over $100m?

[loglorry1] 09/10/2022 22:06

None of the bulls here have ever given an explanation why the argie state won't simply ignore any claim BUR/Petersen might win.

There are very little foreign assets to seize. Argintina will just default on payment as it has many times on its Sov debt.

[time_traveller] 09/10/2022 10:38

Assuming the case would otherwise go against them, Argentina are not in a position to dictate a delay in agreeing settlement. That would be up to Petersen/Burford, and they've waited quite long enough .. no reasonable time scale, and I'm sure they'll be in a position to play hard ball instead.

[chester9] 08/10/2022 11:16

Seb Maril guides that any settlement would have to be signed off by Government. That could a slow challenging process. If it's a straightforward court loss Argentina politics will blame USA courts and their wickedness and bias. That approach could be much more expensive. Argentina has had a better year for food, grain and oil prices which should continue into 23. They may opt to settle. Alternative of course is they win. Belief is perhaps Judge Preska is giving time, her report should be all but finished by now. Outcome could be next week or 3 months time but it will not be Judge Preska still writing her conclusions.

[greyingsurfer] 08/10/2022 10:07

So one the basis of slightly more than doubling the time between the last 2 rulings we should expect around 220 days for the 3rd? Or it could be more or it coud be less.

[jockthescot75] 07/10/2022 20:18

Thanks both.

[375uv] 07/10/2022 18:18

Allow me to answer your question.

Judge Preska has ruled twice in this case: 2016 and 2020. The other two major rulings throughout the past 7 years, were handed by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court (although the SCOTUS was not a ruling but a decision not to hear the case).

In the 2016 ruling, Judge Preska took 51 days to publish her ruling from the last filing of a motion or an oral argument. In the 2020 ruling, she spent 119 days thinking things over before publishing her ruling.

As of today, October 7, it's been 105 days since the last set of motions for summary judgments were filed.

In just a handful of days, Judge Preska would have matched the time she took to publish her second Opinion & Order.

One last point, both rulings were roughly 45 pages long. However, her first ruling (in my opinion), was much more complex to decide than the second.

I expect this third Opinion & Order to be near 100 pages unless she rejects both sides' summary judgments and sends this thing to trial.

Cheers.

[chester9] 07/10/2022 18:14

It's based on Judge Preska's history on the case- In her first ruling in this case (Sep 9, 2016), Judge Preska took 51 days from the last filing/hearing to publish her Opinion and Order.- In her second ruling (June 5, 2020), the judge took 119 days.The case has been back and forward but as the scale and reference has got bigger and bigger it was expected she would take at least 119 days. It looks like she is on target.

[jockthescot75] 07/10/2022 18:01

Thanks Chester. Could you clarify the relevance of the 119 days?
Many thanks

Jock

[chester9] 07/10/2022 11:01

Just to save others time 105 days. Friday 7thWe have 14 more to go to before 119 will be passed. Reading several threads some believe Judge Preska is attempting to recommend that both parties agree a settlement rather than her give an all out decision. With the reason being it would be the most politically neutral outcome and as such better for all parties. If you believe those threads it's a win. If not a win it will be appealed by Burford.Will we know in next two weeks? She may allow them a little more time. GLALTHS

[f56] 05/10/2022 19:45

If I do something that I shouldn’t and get sent to jail I hope I get this judge to pass my sentence. 😊

[donald pond] 05/10/2022 18:31

One weekend. But no guarantees, it just makes sense to do it when the markets are closed

[houseofpain1] 05/10/2022 17:45

This weekend? Or just a weekend whenever she's ready?

[donald pond] 05/10/2022 16:15

Interesting. There seems to be a general view that the judge is unlikely to want a full trial (she would have passed judgment sooner if she did) and the consensus seems to be about a 90% chance of Bur winning and perhaps a median $4bn award. We don't know how the judgment will be issued but the most likely answer is that it will be dropped into PACER at the weekend.

[ptolemy] 05/10/2022 11:17

US (NYSE) interest in BUR picking up recently. Yesterday's volumn was 485k that's 261% of the 65-day average.

[chester9] 30/9/2022 21:52

Just look at 10, 20, 30 year history etc. it all comes back you just have to back the right horses. Burford is a Gold Cup and National winner given time.Patience is so so so so hard. It's not about YPF really but it would be nice. GLA

[scooper72] 30/9/2022 20:57

You are not alone in the storm

[lazg] 30/9/2022 17:58

I always viewed myself as a patient person but Burford is now the only green position in my portfolio, that I still hold. And I used to be more than 100% up... damn. Maybe I should just not look at charts for a few years.