Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ptolemy] 05/10/2022 11:17

US (NYSE) interest in BUR picking up recently. Yesterday's volumn was 485k that's 261% of the 65-day average.

[chester9] 30/9/2022 21:52

Just look at 10, 20, 30 year history etc. it all comes back you just have to back the right horses. Burford is a Gold Cup and National winner given time.Patience is so so so so hard. It's not about YPF really but it would be nice. GLA

[scooper72] 30/9/2022 20:57

You are not alone in the storm

[lazg] 30/9/2022 17:58

I always viewed myself as a patient person but Burford is now the only green position in my portfolio, that I still hold. And I used to be more than 100% up... damn. Maybe I should just not look at charts for a few years.

[chester9] 30/9/2022 17:14

From SebArgentina has filed with the SEC its Annual Report for Foreign Governments and Political Subdivisions. For the 1st time, the gov has acknowledged that damages related to the YPF exprop. case could start at $8.4bl if the presiding judge rejects its motion for summary judgment

[williamcooper104] 29/9/2022 20:44

I got out at 845 Will slowly buy back in again It's - show me the cash In these markets; there's nothing that can't fall another 30 percent

[time_traveller] 29/9/2022 17:37

Thanks 3BC; Yes, I hung on those presentations. I guess my faith is starting to waver after three years, but if Petersen doesn't come good, the timeline for other (much delayed) realisations will be long past the point I switch from investing to spending. I didn't expect to be sitting at such share price lows on the cusp of a Petersen verdict, so I took to asking myself, 'how can this be, what am I missing that IIs are seeing/ not seeing'?

[three black crows] 29/9/2022 17:27

TT, you should not try to judge the company on a PETERSEN win.
I suggest you look at the growth model that they quite clearly explain in their presentations. If you believe in the growth model your investment will come blue, as you suggest. You will need some patience though.

[time_traveller] 29/9/2022 17:03

I'm pleased to have misjudged him and I'll happily defer as you know him better. I, only briefly once. I invested because of the stunning prospects for growth, not the management.
To be pedantic though, your last sentence is illogical; the red on my burford investment could be said to validate my subsequent analysis of the management, not contradict it (but yes, I fell in love with the company - fatal, and my bad)! - Sentiment is predominant (with little else to go on), since MW, and it hasn't convincingly been turned around in three years. A Petersen win would do it though.

[tradertrev] 29/9/2022 16:30

You are entitled to your opinion of course TT. I've known the CEO for many, many years and have met many other CEOs - I've always found him to be one of, if not the most impressive of them all. Completely in command of his business and all the issues it faces. Not only that but able to communicate effectively on what is still a very new and little understood business.
If you had been as impressive in your analysis of the shares you probably would be deeply in the blue rather than the red.

[time_traveller] 29/9/2022 16:08

Well you're lucky [reply to now deleted post]. Most investors are deeply in the red here. There have been supporters of Bogart here, but personally I don't see it. I have found him deeply unimpressive as a 'CEO'. Maybe better as a lawyer; I don't know, but he has been given a very long leash to restore image since MW, and has failed. (never met Molot myself).. I do feel value would be released under new ownership, without Bogart. Whether it could happen is open to debate.

[sam55todd] 27/9/2022 13:12

Chester9 - I'm not sure if expropriation of a company controlled via ownership certificates (aka shares) traded on US exchange has much to do with compliance to Argentinian or Spanish laws in this context.
There are number of ways Argies could do it differently (saving them from these troubles, e.g. seizing company assets or having majority on a board - formally selling assets for pennies to a different controlled entity) but I guess it was laziness and skipping some formal steps what led to unpleasant consequences, nothing can change that anymore.

[chester9] 27/9/2022 09:23

Just to save others time 95 days. I suspect we have 24 more to go so 119 will be passed. The judgement has to be utterly watertight and complete across USA, Spanish and Argentinian laws. Though most agree they were wrong that does not mean they were wrong by the law. I do not envy Preska's requirement for diligence. I do respect her intellect and staying power.

[time_traveller] 26/9/2022 12:18

All time NYSE low actually, edit and lower by the day.

The dispiriting thing is the way the management put the embarrassing US share price down to investors not being aware of BUR, and not down to their singular failure to deliver for shareholders, for several years now. Can only hope Petersen will rectify that. And applying Argentine laws? - would that not be akin to inviting a burglar to devise his own laws he'd like to be tried under? (though nothing would surprise me, remembering the completely wacko ruling in favour of muddy waters/LSE).

[noblerotter] 23/9/2022 18:33

Making a new yearly low in the USA.

[lomax99] 23/9/2022 14:04

Getting closer to top up time, sub £6

[time_traveller] 23/9/2022 12:53

Or in Burford case, they don't seem to need an excuse to award themselves tasty pay and bonuses!. I'm reminded how they simultaneously cancelled the dividend AND awarded bonuses; justified they said at the time, because they related historically. What's the justification this time?

[tradertrev] 23/9/2022 12:31

There is also a seasonal lack of activity in the first half of the year. Lots of settlement activity takes place in Nov/Dec, as the lawyers thoughts turn to year-end targets/bonuses/time away skiing in Jan/Feb.

[maddox] 23/9/2022 10:40

Hi Divmad,

A common Defence Attorney's tactic in litigation is delay - and Covid was the perfect opportunity to slow case proceedings. BUR are funding their clients' cases not managing them so it's out of their hands. What they do have is ratcheting such that the returns on a case will increase dependent upon the time frame to resolution.

So, whilst the frustrating delay in case resolutions is undermining the share price the value of the business is in fact increasing. At some point we thus should see a deluge of very lucrative outcomes - every case will conclude win/lose or settle they cannot go on forever.

[time_traveller] 23/9/2022 10:18

Red numbers. But I think mainly it was the staggering lack of progress on realisations, being quite some time since courts returned to full operation. Investors have been generous with giving the benefit of the doubt with excuses like this for years now, but that's being exhausted.

Edit; on the plus side - this should be the perfect shelter for a UK investor, from the government's headlong drive into fiscal Armageddon, but down, ever down we go!

[divmad] 23/9/2022 09:34

It was that last trading update that started the rot. More kicking the can down the road. More fuzzy numbers.

[williamcooper104] 21/9/2022 12:32

https://twitter.com/advisorslatam/status/1572549177703559170?s=46&t=o6EB9KXGc7lPoj_z3Af17Q

[ptolemy] 21/9/2022 10:27

Burford reading (unrelated to YPF):

A report on class action recoveries: Why companies opt out and what they stand to gain


Burford Funds Arbitration Settlement Claim Against Nigerian Government

[lomax99] 20/9/2022 13:04

Down again on pathetic volume, happy to start adding in the low £6's.

[time_traveller] 20/9/2022 11:17

Ha ha - little doubting who's pocket that Nigerian "news" source is in!