Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[dgdg1] 15/9/2022 15:40

How does he know that it will be decided in the "next few days"?

[williamcooper104] 14/9/2022 10:08

Being a non American owning dollar assets has been my most reliable hedge this year

[chester9] 14/9/2022 08:50

From SebCEO of YPF from Houston: "The lawsuit that Loretta Preska is carrying out in New York is yet to be defined and it will be known if there is a trial. A bankruptcy in Spain with Argentine laws is being judged in the US. In the next few days we will know how it goes."

[chester9] 13/9/2022 16:03

Very true I have accumulated over time as I grew in confidence. Well ahead so comfortable with regular drops. MW and the failure to expose the beneficiary's of the mischief or not put a horrible dent for LTH. 20.45 on 25 aug 2018. It's on its way back but a win would get that share price way faster.

[noblerotter] 13/9/2022 15:36

And if you were unlucky enough to have bought as an American then you are down 38% since May 2021.

[chester9] 13/9/2022 10:56

It would seem as we move closer to the outcome the reality in the short term is that this is an educated bet. The non win valuation is coming as we slide down. 926 high we are now 22 percent off. The complexity means Preska's outcome may be closer to 119 days. In which case potentially still 6 weeks of uncertainty to go. Watching the in, the out and the maybe ill be in is fascinating. There have many articles as to why this will be won and a good number but not so many as to why it will not. It's an educated bet. To the ins I am with you and have been in for 3 years good luck. I know however it is a bet and to those that sold around 9 well played for now and possibly full stop.

[maddox] 12/9/2022 18:01

BUR provided an illustration of a 'fair value' life history of a case on p8 FY 2021 Results Presentation on 29 March 2022. In this particular case, the case received an initial adverse trial verdict and was written-down to zero. It then won a reversal on appeal and on a mediated settlement achieved IRR of 23% or ROIC of 231%. So, whilst this may not be typical fair value is adjusted dependent upon case events.

Also,p33 same pressy, illustrates the averaged fair value changes over time of the direct portfolio. Cases are valued at c. 21% of their ultimate realised value - one year before case conclusion. This suggests BUR is very cautious in attribution of a fair value to an in-flight case.

The carrying value of YPF is USD 777m and the other cases USD 160m as at 31 Dec 2021 so YPF is hugely disproportionate to the remainder of Burford's B/S portfolio.

[williamcooper104] 12/9/2022 17:00

Yep; the argument for Mano was that the cases usually settled quite quickly so often the fair value write up would only be for one balance sheet period with a realisation occurring in the next accounting period Recently they've taken on some bigger more complex cases and it could be that what was reasonable for one group of cases isn't for others Fair value adjustments with BUR are ex Peterson really not an issue (and debatable how much value the market puts on Peterson) As Log said - the issue now is - show me the money

[1aconic] 12/9/2022 16:43

I don't follow MANO as closely but in all the presentations I've seen the implication has been that MANO assess fair value far more frequently through the case (whereas BUR's is currently at significant case milestones only). It seems to be MANO's way of smoothing earnings to make them less lumpy and more digestable for Joe Investor. I'm reasonably sure from some of Steve Cooklin's comments that they even give some cases fair value immediately upon taking a case. BUR's has (at least in the past) looked considerably more conservative and I think I'm still correct in saying that they've never had to write down a case that had been assigned a fair value upgrade; most cases are simply held at the invested amount until there is a significant case milestone. The vast majority of fair value upgrades on BUR's balance sheet are still virtually all YPF - one would expect there to be some kind of judgement before the auditor's get anywhere near BUR's numbers again.

[loglorry1] 12/9/2022 14:17

At least BUR has a lot more scale to average out any adverse case developments. I don't think BUR are that agressive really but having said that why don't we see a wall of cash hitting as cases settle.

Still not bought back in but it's getting more tempting now.

[time_traveller] 09/9/2022 10:55

How bullish were Manolete's valuations compared to Burford? I had the feeling Burford were becoming a bit too "hair shirt' with theirs.

[williamcooper104] 09/9/2022 10:42

MANOs auditors likely freaked out about MANO losing a big case and having to reverse booked gains The big 4 now all have specialist valuation departments, and they tend to red flag certain sectors - eg a few years ago it was retail real estate valuations So not saying that BUR will be forced to write down Peterson, but they'll certainly have to defend it to their auditors who will want to write it down

[time_traveller] 09/9/2022 10:22

More to do with keeping the auditors happy than macro economics I think. 'You're only as good as your last case'. I guess Burford would further write down across the board in the unlikely event of losing YPF, and one would hope the share price having already lost about 25% since the results, it's now in the price here (but they do need a win, and also show us the lawyers are worth their money)!

[trident5] 09/9/2022 08:49

How does the Manolete loss and write downs read across to here?

Looks like their case valuations were not appropriate in this new "macro-economic climate"

[williamcooper104] 06/9/2022 15:40

At least we got a liquid (reasonably) options market out of the US listing

[time_traveller] 06/9/2022 15:22

"As Burford looks to complete its transition to a full US SEC-registered issuer and position itself more prominently with US investors"

... So, their hoped for magical restoration of the SP, embarrassingly stuck at post MW levels .. takes a bit more than just a glitzy listing, and the (getting tired) "record deployments" refrain?!

[chester9] 05/9/2022 16:12

Well that's 73 days will be get to 119? If so 6 weeks and 4 days to set new longest time to outcome. GLA

[flare1] 04/9/2022 14:56

Or ..... have you sold your shares and now aim to dis the company in an attempt get others to sell theirs too so that you can buy back in at a cheaper price?

[three black crows] 04/9/2022 10:47

That’s why you need to wait. What exactly are you in such a rush for ?
Are you waiting until the share price reaches a point at which you can exit or are you fed up with the way the company has a lumpy return

[syoun2] 04/9/2022 10:39

I agree where is it? It must pop its head out soon or you start to wonder.

[three black crows] 04/9/2022 10:15

The cases don’t just complete because Covid has declined.
Some the cases take years to complete.
You will need to have more patience and wait for the next results in 2023

[loglorry1] 04/9/2022 08:57

If they are winning over 90% of cases, given the case book has been pretty large for a number of years now, and covid backlogs are fading away, where is the tidal wave of cash?

[williamcooper104] 03/9/2022 13:58

The ultra bullish argument amusingly flips between - its so cheap on a PE basis and the results are lumpy and can't be assessed on any 12 month period

[lazg] 03/9/2022 13:16

DJ, thanks for your points (even though you seem to be quite passionate about your rebuttal). I am stating bear points notwithstanding that I agree with you that Burford is a good investment (hence my considerable stake in the company).

Burford is good at winning historically and good at chosing cases. Yes. But Burford has grown. I am forward looking when I say that cases and good returns are harder to get. The litigation financing field is maturing.

Saying that they reject 90% of cases brought to them does not imply that the 10% that they do chose were the best 10%. Actually, having to many cases brought to you is not a good thing, as it costs money to evaluate each of them.

Initially, the decision makers were looking at the (details) of each case themselves. Now they (have to) pay their employees (well) to do so. No employee will ever have the same passion as the owner, thats just the nature of things (I know as I have been both).

Yes you need to pay good people well, but sometimes that does not mean that they will not jump ship, i.e. to open up their own litigation financing company. They are just not as committed and will sometimes be outwitted.