Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[djderry] 23/7/2021 10:20

The 'boat' was the subject of much of the litigation ,over several years,over several courts in separate jurisdictions.No property was owned by the defendant in London.(His son,Temur,had.)
The case was littered with efforts to evade,conceal and put assets beyond reach using myriad shelf companies and tax havens.

[loglorry1] 23/7/2021 10:06

There was a boat that he had docked in a port with jurisdiction and property in London? Anyway perhaps you are right. Neither of us know the details as it's confidential.

[loglorry1] 23/7/2021 10:03

I really meant what ROIC is per year across the whole book. It is hard to calculate because the cash flows are lumpy, cases multi-year, the case book has expanded rapidly, and Petersen has skewed it.


There is a granular breakdown of each case on the website ao you can see what's going on. I find that very helpful.

[djderry] 23/7/2021 10:01

Loglorry,a few simple questions;
1.Which assets were available to be seized?
2.In which 'jurisdictions'were they available? Lichtenstein?
3.What were the appraised values of these alleged assets?
4.Where did you pick up the notion that this case,fought tooth and nail over four years in several continents was 'easy'?

[williamcooper104] 23/7/2021 09:24

ROIC to date just on Peterson is c7-10x on cash realisations So even if they win and can't collect (which would of course be painful to the sp) it still doesn't undermine the core business model

[loglorry1] 23/7/2021 09:19

BUR should maybe help Cairn collect from India. That's a tough gig too!

[loglorry1] 23/7/2021 09:13

I'm bullish on BUR but I dont think the Akhmedov case was so hard to collect on. That's reassuring because if it was they shoul not have taken it.

There were assets all over the place in jurisdictions where they could be seized.

If they win Petersen and dont't settle collecting from Argentina/ YPF will be much harder.

As far as ROIC is concerned. It seems pretty hard to accurately work out but I'm hoping it is as good as people say it is!

[djderry] 22/7/2021 23:16

The Akhmedov matter and its resolution is highly instructive.While each single matter and its outcome is uncorrelated and binary,the resolution of this matter is very valuable to the investor,in several ways.
On one level,it's a key indicator of the robustness and strength of the overall portfolio.Not just because of the stellar ROIC and IRRs but,more importantly,as a test of the higher risk/reward end of the portfolio.
Remember,the company was faced with a billionaire determined not to honour a High Court judgement,with top council, myriad tax and financial vehicles and advice, allegedly close to the reins of power ,in a state not known for its robust and independent judicial system.
In the face of this,the company,coldly and dispassionately chose to fund,on a non-recourse basis,the plaintiff's case.
In some respects this case is at the very apex of difficulty and complexity.
And yet,it won.And won handsomely.
If you look back at some of the withering commentary of our friends in the financial press and of (some) of those who contributed to fora such as this,it is instructive to see just how wrong their predictions turned out to be.
Of course many of those in the financial press and on these fora had,in their time,been bullish on Burford but ,when Mr.Block issued his hazy and mostly untrue 'report',they ran away or sold out.However,amongst the tissues of misinformation (similar misinformation is posted on this BB on a regular basis,one just learns to filter them,but I digress) one could discern a fundamental truth.The company goes to great lengths to achieve its path to profit in a range of scenarios.
And did I mention tenacity and multi-juristictional teams and skill sets that,combined,brought even a Russian billionaire to the settlement table.
And it's equally instructive to see how the business works in reality.The market sees just the surface.Without going through the vehement defence of the case,it's instructive to note that ,even up to the last day ,when, presumably,the hundred million dollars was being wired to the company,we still had the spectacle of the defendant's spokesperson refusing to countenance any acceptance of a High Court judgement.
This is part of the song and dance that goes on.'Burford will never get a penny' becomes 'Thanks for the hundred million /70 million pure profit'.'We will never settle' becomes 'All litigation gets settled,one way or another'.'Burford will be waiting a long time to get paid becomes ' It's already in the account'.
Remember that the next time you hear the bears grunt.

[onup1] 22/7/2021 20:15

Any advance news releases on expectations of interims ?

[williamcooper104] 22/7/2021 02:05

https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-put.htmlGood simple option return calculator; now that we're US listed there's an active options market

[loglorry1] 21/7/2021 21:11

Of the $70m they had booked all but $20m but it's decent newa. One hopes that caases are being concluded all the time and there hasn't been too much impact on courts with covid. I know that jury trials have been impacted.

[onup1] 21/7/2021 20:17

Normal here , good news or profitis announced share price tanks

[williamcooper104] 19/7/2021 13:59

It's beta always explodes on a major market down day Might be unfair; but it's no surprise

[tnt99] 19/7/2021 13:47

So let's get this straight they just announce they will make 70 million on a Single case they have just won and the shares crash?????

[trident5] 17/7/2021 15:38

Suggestion that B told the ex-wife that if she didn't settle they were going to down tools.

[bogman1] 17/7/2021 14:26

Pasted said article below. First good words the ft has written about burford

[syoun2] 17/7/2021 14:20

For those of you with access There’s an article in FT today about the Akhmedov settlement. Believe it not Analysts at Canaccord Genuity said the settlement look like a good result for Burford.
Reasonable words from Canaccord and FT in one day, amazing.

[williamcooper104] 17/7/2021 07:53

Other than Peterson where the mark up was driven by third party sales, almost all FV adjustments happen 12 months before final settlement and always after something tangible has happened

[gusrezo] 16/7/2021 19:40

Take into account that this was a post-settlement case, not core litigation where most of the business is; so probably the realized gains were recognized as assets were transferred to the ex-wife, more clear that a revaluation of an investment due to a judge.

[gusrezo] 16/7/2021 19:35

This case has received extensive coverage(FT, The Times...): the chase of the mega-yacht, the trial against the son. I would say that Burford was presented as a company wasting its money in a very complex and extravagant situation fighting a russian mogul that was hiding his assets in tax havens all around the world. So probably Burford wants to shut some mouths and change this perception.

[time_traveller] 16/7/2021 17:37

The fact that eg 5/7s of the gain is already booked, is to some extent, by the by, because the market has taken a very cynical view and low valuation of unrealised gains booked, post MW. The more Burford's mark up ratio is proven, the more all the other unrealised gains will be valued in the share price. So I'm surprised the price hasn't gone up more, but it'll be a slow burner I guess.

[kannerwas] 16/7/2021 16:40

The rules set out circumstances in which an announcement must be made.

As far as I know, there is no rule to prohibit a company from voluntarily making an announcement about circumstances for which an announcement does not have to be made.

I think this announcement was at Burford's discretion, and was made because of the high level of publicity surrounding the case.