Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[gettingrichslow] 07/8/2019 08:55

It is Burford.

[edmondj] 07/8/2019 08:54

We are short BUR. For years, it was the ultimate “trust me” stock. Thanks to a light disclosure regime, the esoteric nature of its business, and unethical behavior by its largest shareholder, Invesco, it turned Enron-esque mark-to-model accounting into the biggest stock promotion on the AIM. This has all recently changed though. Just this year, BUR began publishing more detailed investment data. This data proves that BUR has been egregiously misrepresenting its ROIC and IRRs, as well as the state of its overall business. We have identified seven methods by which BUR manipulates Concluded Investment ROIC and IRR.

BUR’s top management, through their shareholdings (and sales), is in effect primarily compensated for aggressively marking cases in order to generate non-cash fair value gains. Until now, BUR has gotten away with aggressive and unwarranted marks by touting ROIC and IRR metrics. We show that BUR heavily manipulates these metrics. BUR then actively misleads investors about how its accounting for realized gains works. As a result of this deception, we believe investors give credence to BUR’s fair value gains. In actuality, BUR’s net realized returns have relied on a very small number of cases. Just four cases have produced approximately two-thirds of BUR’s net realized gains since 2012. (One of the four outsized contributors was actually a loss a trial, and was bailed out by BUR’s largest shareholder, Invesco, at the direction of Neil Woodford protégé; Mark Barnett. Absent the bailout, the case almost certainly would have been a total loss.)

BUR is a perfect storm for an accounting fiasco. BUR’s governance strictures are laughter-inducing. The CFO is the wife of the founder / CEO. Under the best of circumstances, this should alarm investors; however, with a company that consistently books non-cash accounting profits, it is unforgivable. BUR has cycled through four prior CFOs or senior finance managers (none of whom stayed for long). These facts beg the question “Is (current CFO) Elizabeth O’Connell the only CFO who can be relied upon to approve the accounts?”

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[terumask] 07/8/2019 08:52

No content for the moment, but Muddy Waters has created Burford tag on their webpage

hxxps://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bur/

[spyder] 07/8/2019 08:47

Stranger things have happened ...

[dgdg1] 07/8/2019 08:46

Who knows, and not sure if you're serious. But if you're right then we are back to square one as we go back to the fallback assumption which is that it's Burford. Cerainly Burford themselves seem to think they are the target, so I'm not taking comfort yet from it not being released

[onjohn] 07/8/2019 08:46

Bought LIT and BUR

[windsor430] 07/8/2019 08:43

If they confused GMT for BST that really is amateur hour

[tidy 2] 07/8/2019 08:42

Steady climb now. Very hard to get stock !

[spyder] 07/8/2019 08:41

Here’s another theory for you ... perhaps MW have confused GMT for BST??
Report at 9?

[5chipper] 07/8/2019 08:41

Could Bur shareholders form a class action lawsuit, backed by Burford, for losses?

[dgdg1] 07/8/2019 08:41

But why would they delay the release if it's someone else? It makes them look silly. Unless they are worried they could get sued by the other company, but that seems unlikely

[williamcooper104] 07/8/2019 08:40

Got some at open now can't get £1k

[windsor430] 07/8/2019 08:38

Muddy waters has taken on legal challenges before - maybe their delay is because it's someone else? The drop all started based on rumours remember

[djderry] 07/8/2019 08:38

I'm a non drinker Adnan but we've organised a get together at the Ritz in Paris ( for the europhiles!) in 2021 and I'm sure they'll have the sommelier look free you!

[spyder] 07/8/2019 08:36

I dislike shorters intensely, so I am not defending MW, but perhaps buyers of BUR should be cautious until there is more clarity?
Perhaps MW are tinkering with their report in response to the RNS from BUR this morning?

[holts] 07/8/2019 08:36

BUR1 has recovered

[owenga] 07/8/2019 08:34

I wonder how many people got spiked at 1350p this morning.. ouch.

[dgdg1] 07/8/2019 08:32

They might be sure of their grounds but still scared of legal action for manipulation

[winsome] 07/8/2019 08:29

Doubt they are scared. Whichever company it is they are tracking they are waiting for the right moment today.

CG started some of this misinformation and now its backfired because their client LTCM is also being hit in parallel.