Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[solooiler] 06/8/2019 22:16

What are shareprophets saying exactly>

[adnan17] 06/8/2019 22:10

So let me get this right. Shareprophets asked a former ex-partner (accountant) of a big 4 firm to have a look at the 2018 annual accounts. Who does Shareprophets think is signing off Burford's financial statements Mickey Mouse/Mr. Bean? It is being signed off my a current Big 4 partner from E&Y who will most likely have a team of senior accountants. Not sure why an unemployed ex-partner's view are more highly regarded than an employed partner who is working with a team of accountants. Appreciate that accountants can get it wrong (I also have the CFA and ACA) but not sure why one accountant's views are correct and the other accountant's view wrong.

Burford capital nor E&Y set the accounting rules. They just abide by them. In addition Burford received USD 638m from closed cases in 2018 and a further USD 316.5m in the first half of 2019. Both these amounts are cash amounts received and not fictitious accounting. You can't manipulate cash received.

[solooiler] 06/8/2019 21:54

Selling kicked off long before any tweets hpcg. its like 2.05pm hit and then wham a wall of selling starts

if it turns out to be a different stock cant see why this wont bounce big style

[holts] 06/8/2019 21:50

Bonds , presenting an opportunity .

[hpcg] 06/8/2019 21:38

From what I can see on Twitter it was other people mentioning the name and some people acting fast. Other guesses included Beyond Meat, so a pinch of salt in order. Looking at the bonds, of which I hold some (BUR1) that was clearly post tweet action only, not an informed opinion. Given how little the price has changed I would say there is no suspicion from bondholders. I do think their use of retail bonds at a higher cost than commercial is something of a red flag. Anyway, its short term payables, i.e. liquidity needs, are small, and I'm sure you lovely equity holders would bail us out anyway :). For that matter they could get a facility.

Are holders bullish on any London listed stocks at the moment?

Edit - I see also the link of BUR to Muddy Waters on Shareprophets that could spook some. Still think the liquidity statement is strange if it is BUR.

[fangsforthememory] 06/8/2019 21:09

The comment about liquidity, and fear company will go to zero might be more appropriate for PLUS.

[dgdg1] 06/8/2019 21:06

The tweet said "Investors are bulled up about this company. We're not". I would have thought it wouldn't be true to say about Burford that investors are "bulled up" - I mean price action hasn't exactly been good recently and there have already been all sorts of bear suggestions, whether you agree with them or not. So I would like to think this means it won't be Burford. The comment about potentially insolvent sounds like a very extreme allegation if it is meant to be directed at Burford, so let's see.

[solooiler] 06/8/2019 20:59

Tweet came out at 1.30pm and this started to weaken with big selling just after 2pm. Just after 2.30 was already down way over 5% so seems the market took fright before then


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[minerve 2] 06/8/2019 20:46

dsmith57

“I’m afraid, ruinous for me who holds multiple thousands of shares”

Sorry to hear that old boy. You are one of the decent posters on this thread.

I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you!

It could turn out to be mostly scaremongering. These shorting houses latch onto concerns but generally magnify out of proportion. Unfortunately, the ignorant get scared and run away because they can’t, and have no intention to learn how to, read accounts.

[adnan17] 06/8/2019 20:43

So Net Income was as follows (46.6m in 2014, 65.7m in 2015, 108.9m in 2016, 249.3m in 2017, 317.6m in 2018 and for the first half of 2019 it was 220.5m).

The cash received from wins (not unrealised but actual wins) was as follows (65.5m in 2014 from cases from 2009 to 2014; 146.4m in 2015 from cases from 2009 to 2015, 193.9m in 2016 from cases from 2009 to 2016, 366.5m in 2017 from cases from 2009 to 2017, 638.2m in 2018 from cases from 2009 to 2018 and for the first half of 2019 316.5m for cases from 2009 to 2018).

Then they invested the following amounts of cash into new legal cases (93.8m in 2014, 112.7m in 2015, 280m in 2016, 576m in 2017, 771.3m in 2018 and 215.5m in the first half of 2019) . Got to invest cash in order to keep growing the business, not sure what businesses people run where they don't invest cash to grow the business.

They also had the following amounts of cash on their balance sheet. So this could be used for any interest payments or any other unforeseen circumstances (189.6 in 2014, 185.6m in 2015, 169.4m in 2016, 175m in 2017, 307m in 2018 and 276.2m in 2019).

So looks like they making lots of cash. Then re-investing it for the future. And keeping a portion aside for a rainy day.

Apple keeps around 10-20% of its market cap in cash. Here burford have a market cap of USD 2 or 3bn and cash equivalents of USD 276.2m. So relatively prudent. Worst case scenario all the remaining litigation cases are worthless and as a shareholder we receive USD 276.2m in cash. But doubt the cases are worthless. And given their strong cash generation capabilities looks like the investments will continue to generate strong cash amounts.

[ltcm1] 06/8/2019 20:42

No expert here but if the 'mark to market' has been overstated won't that be a paper loss rather than a liquidity issue for the company?

It is just possible this is a seperate opportunistic bear raid here. However it could be valid, to be fair Minerve did warn here a couple of months back.

The MW note could be for another company.

[minerve 2] 06/8/2019 20:41

getting/ltcm

Are the losses hurting?

LOL

[minerve 2] 06/8/2019 20:38

ltcm1

Remember I fully sold out of Kier above 150. My losses have been wiped out by my gains in BDEV. I manage risk with appropriate trade sizes. Best learn!

LOL

[minerve 2] 06/8/2019 20:35

Getting that was dated 2015. That was 4 year’s ago.

When the facts change, I change my mind.

Would you like me to list why I think Woodford went from hero to zero.

Not embarrassed at all.

Not as much as you will be when you have to report your balance to your wife!

LOL

[ltcm1] 06/8/2019 20:31

Minerve??? He's the guy that bought Kier at well over 400 and kept adding.

Kier now 80.

[dsmith57] 06/8/2019 20:29

Buford, unfortunately, will be the company in muddy waters analysis tomorrow. Just look at Shareprophets site today who all but name them. They have apparently worked hand in glove with muddy waters in the past. This is just an amazing situation and, I m afraid, ruinous for me who holds multiple thousands of shares in my SIPP. Sentiment plays such a part, particularly in AIM.Even if this is total rubbish it is very doubtful whether this can ever recover: and where will we open tomorrow?

[gettingrichslow] 06/8/2019 20:26

Embarrassing eh Minerve??

[gettingrichslow] 06/8/2019 20:25

Minerve, should we all have listened to this too??

"minerve 16 Nov '15 - 22:10 - 465

I have been in this business over 20 years. I can reassure you Woodford is up there with the best there is, no question. Of course, investing is not a game of perfection, it never will be, it is a game of managing risk with a view to long-term growth and not many will do it better than Woodford. I am a great admirer of him as a professional and as an individual. His views and attitudes pretty much mirror mine and his willingness to be open and transparent is second to none.

If I had to hand my money over to someone in trust for the future, he would be the first, even before family members. Woodford is no different now than he was decades ago. Solid 100% professional with untouched integrity."

[jeff h] 06/8/2019 20:21

I did advocate more regular updates/quarterly reporting at the end of last year, (and suggested it to Elizabeth O'Connell) though with little enthusiasm from the majority of posters on this board.

Interims and Finals plus little else (no new information is given on Capital Market Days) gives too long periods with nothing but potentially months to the next update, this is insufficent imo for a company of this size.

[nigelpm] 06/8/2019 19:51

Yes, but marked down at that level is definitely not positive.