British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 19:31

“US companies have higher margins, a higher return on equity, stronger balance sheets and far faster sales and earnings growth than those in other developed markets.”

^^ sums up my thesis on why america always wins

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 19:16

UK stocks keep up with US ones (just about), the FTSE 100 is not UK. Most of it's revenue is from EM markets, EM markets have poor productivity and anyone with half a brain in EM runs away to Europe or the US, making EM markets even worse (as talent leaves).

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 19:01

You can hold valuations if you have the earnings per share. If you have poor earnings (like most of europe, people living on the dole with socialism in full force), your shares won't go anywhere. Emerging markets (bar a few) are even worse, where 50% of the population is unemployed and chilling on the roadside.

Have a look at long term S&P 500 performance vs FTSE 100. It's no comparison. FTSE 100 is full of revenue from emerging markets which is hopeless.

In america we trust.

[unnavailable] 11/9/2018 18:39

Agree with EI. US in one of the longest bull runs in history. Tax reforms gave it an extra boost that only prolongs the inevitable. It will turn. Not necessarily a recession type event but almost guaranteed a correction.Hearing things like 'they can hold high valuations and be fine' for me is just alarm bells.All imo, of course and wish you all the best, ttid.

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 18:33

I've learnt if cable is above 1.3, load up on US spec stocks. If cable is above 1.4, just buy american stocks. The only thing more depressing than UK stocks is the weather.

[essentialinvestor] 11/9/2018 18:10

Would be careful stateside fwiw,
when the turn comes in US stocks, it may be sharp and brutal.

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 18:04

Just invest in america, the rest of the world is a dump, europe lacks growth and is built on socialism.

[philanderer] 11/9/2018 17:56

Off to Andros for a month at the end of the week so I'll take some time, sit back and reflect 😊

[philanderer] 11/9/2018 17:41

Waste of time in the market for me this year so far. I'm well diversified and still showing -2.5% tonight for 2018 , just about matching the FTSE250..... FTSE100 -5% for 2018

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 17:08

cig volumes are rising in EM markets, where the population is also rising.

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 17:04

I bought Square, a US fintech stock, at $36, it now trades at $92.50. I only bought Square in January 2018, so I have a 300% return in 9 months. Nothing a depressing stock like BATS could deliver, even if you gave it 5 years.

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 17:00

Unavailable, the biggest thing in investing is temperament, not to get emotional over your stocks. I get emotional, especially when Mr Market is behaving erratically. Trends stay in one direction for longer than we hope, this drop in BATS is fuelled by ethical hedge funds dumping the stock and general fear. You have a nice rising bull market in america, but BATS drops off a cliff over the last 2 weeks from £42 for no apparent reason.

The pendulum never stays in the middle, always rotating between fear and greed. Patience like you said is the answer, I just don't have any with this particular sector and I have no interest in topping up even in the reversal (which will happen soon).

[stepone68] 11/9/2018 17:00

ttid - no, not undervalued for a non-growth industry with cigarette volumes in permanent decline.

[unnavailable] 11/9/2018 16:53

That is my view. Mr Market is jabbing away at me relentlessly but I'm playing rope a dope. And I belive patience will be rewarded. Patience can be an edge in this game.I'll probably top up here under £35.

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 16:36

Though after saying that, if you have the stomach for volatility and have a 5 year + outlook, now is a strong buy

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 16:30

I have no meaningful money to buy, and the sector depresses me. I am looking at a top up of Just Eat, Visa or Square for my next purchase. Tobacco is too depressing.

[unnavailable] 11/9/2018 16:20

Ttid, are you still buying?.

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 15:48

It's just depressing to watch, absolute fear running this sh1tshow. People are selling cos its going down, no other bloody reason. Management should put a statement out, but clearly have zero balls.

[essentialinvestor] 11/9/2018 15:29

Phil would know more about this than I do-
think some analysts are questioning future margins on new gen products,
re conventional sticks.
To me the sector looks higher risk and less 'safe' than it once was,
however may be too cautious in that view.

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 15:27

StepOne, the RSI on BATS is 10. It's come down from £55, it's on a P/E of 12, with a future dividend yield of 6-6.5%. Does that not scream undervalued?

[stepone68] 11/9/2018 15:23

It was £34 a couple of years ago - I couldn't understand the run up to 50s, despite being a holder. It sits on PE of 12 and yield around 5%, so not exactly massively undervalued at the moment.

StepOne

[this_time_its_different] 11/9/2018 15:22

BATS is depressing to watch.