Bristol & London Share Discussion Threads

[dark matter] 26/8/2002 18:03

Reports of the death of the housing market have been greatly exaggerated (at least in the US).

See:

[maxk] 25/8/2002 21:01

Buy-To-Let as Safe as Houses?

Perhaps not! At least in the south east.

Woofed this post from the premium board..the figures are from the housing mob that has been quoted on other threads.



goldtrader - 25 Aug'02 - 19:48 - 986 of 988


just found this on aol


The housing boom is slowing down and London prices are already falling, according to a new survey which claims to give the most up-to-date snapshot of property prices.

The survey, based on asking prices of properties for sale on leading Web site rightmove.co.uk, claims that London prices have now fallen for two successive months while the South East has just seen its first decline this year of 1.8%.

Nationally, asking prices are still up 0.8% on last month, but this rate of increase has now fallen for four consecutive months.

Area Average Price Monthly Change Annual %
UK £147,957 0.8% 20.3%
Greater London £244,967 -0.7% 15.1%
South East £198,575 -1.8% 18.5%
South West £171,471 1.7% 21.4%
East Anglia £162,022 5.4% 13.8%
West Midlands £119,413 1.7% 19.9%
East Midlands £117,882 2.4% 24.2%
Wales £115,149 5.3% 31.5%
North West £100,331 0.8% 19.4%
Yorks/Humber £94,575 4.0% 30.4%
The North £82,494 0.0% 18.2%

Source: www.rightmove.co.uk


What about that then?

[insolvent] 25/8/2002 20:56

pommy,

of course things are now exactly the same now as they were in 1990, however, things have not changed enough to justify the current absurd overvaluations in house prices. In 1990/1 you would probably have been better off buying, now you are almost certainly better off renting. The overvaluation of house prices in the South East has reached such ridiculous extremes that it may be 25 years or more before we see today's prices return.

[pommy] 25/8/2002 20:48

insolvent you cant just look at it that simply.
you have to take into account the cost involved of owning the property.
If you were on Buy to let 10 years ago the mortgage would be costing you must more.
If you owned the property outright, you could take into account other forms of investment that would pay more. 10 years ago you would get better rates of returns from the bank, and from the stock market (maybe).

I think the housing market has plateaued, I have just agreed a sale on my main residence ( I live abroard and rent here and have rented out my main house in the UK) but have kept my buy to let property as it pays well.
The high price of my house and the lack of quality rich tennants has led me to sell, but also the fact Im not likely to live close enough to it to live in it over the next few years.
Ill bank the money for a while and see which way the market is going, and where im going before i get involved again.

[acestudent] 25/8/2002 20:33

Man, duz vis meen u got room 2 let cos i get kikked out in3 days?

[insolvent] 25/8/2002 18:21

Over the last 10 years in my area I have seen house prices triple but rents have only increased slightly, maybe 20% to 25%, if at all in some areas. In the long run there must be a link between "renting" and "buying".

Back in 1990 a £50K property could be rented out for about £500/month. A ratio of 100:1. Now the same property is likely to cost £150K but will only fetch around £600/month. A ratio of 250:1. Surely this means that either rents must go up or property prices must fall!

[dark matter] 25/8/2002 18:04

With all this doom and gloom about house prices people seem to have forgotten that the housing market is actually booming. Property has proved to be one of the best investments over the last 100 years and those who retained faith in property retained their wealth throughout thick and thin. There are many reasons why property makes an excellent investment including:

1. Property can actually be used to live in. You can hardly say the same about shares, metals or bank accounts. If you've got a good investment why not enjoy it? Why not show it off? Why not let your family and friends enjoy it too?

2. Property is a very tax efficient means of investment. No capital gains tax on your main residence and one thousand and one ways to save tax on your other residences.

3. There will always be a huge supply of tenants. The number of households in Britain is exploding due to divorce, immigration and greater life expectancy. The housing shortage is becoming ever more acute.

4. Interest rates are low and falling.

5. There are very few other investments that are now offering better returns.

[energyi] 05/7/2002 13:16

ANNOUNCING THE RENT-a-METER! (Now in the PBB Header)

I want to see how many Flats for Rent are in the market.

I have narrowed my criteria to... TWO Bedroom Flats in:
NottingHilll/Kensington and So.Kens./Chelsea and in two
price ranges: £301-500, and £501-800 per week.
Not the "top end", but still pricey. At 5% yields, these properties
might cost: £300,000 - £800,000.

My data comes from the Chard website. They only do rentals, not sales.

RENTA-METER Readings: (Two BR):
Date... NottingHill/Kensington..... So.Kens./Chelsea......... Total
TwoBR.. 00's: Flats . 00's: Flats . 00's: Flats . 00's: Flats
05-Jul. £3-5: 069.. . £5-8: 049.. . £3-5: 045.. . £5-8: 036.. = 199

Source:



Many Estate agents will not speak honestly.
So these advertised opportunities (at their expense!) speak for them

[hatman] 16/6/2002 08:35

Yup - fill your boots with gold. The housing market has already turned down.

[sbs] 15/6/2002 21:12

Has really had 54 million hits? Perhaps I should buy more gold :-)

[itsourpete] 14/6/2002 19:14

Having studied the charts above (totalise), the underlying rate of house price inflation does look set for a correction - but not in the next 12 months IMHO.

There is still, according to historical movement, room for a 50% increase in TODAY's values over the next 5 years. However, low home / European Interest rates coupled with a growing trend in 30 40 50 (and soon 100) year mortgages will see unprecedented increases in house prices over the next 5 years.

IMHO an increase of 50% over the next 5 years is a pessimistic outlook. I expect prices to triple due mainly to the advent of new types of long term borrowing (similar to Japan). Your 'avarage' UK house will therefore rise from c £125k this year to £375k by 2007. DYOR.

Regards,

Pete

[energyi] 21/5/2002 09:04

Secrets from the PBB: Over 200 comments come after:
HEADER FROM PBB THREAD:::

.
-----
Why UK Rates will shoot up FASTER than you (or I) can believe...

It's a global world these days and the fortunes of the UK
are deeply intwined with those of the America. The US is at
the beginning of a severe debt crisis which will bring a
severe retrenchment characterised by a credit crisis, asset
liquidations, bankruptcies, and higher interest rates.

Think of the meaning of this Chart:


... and read this:
EXCERPT: "An asset bubble by its very name implies that the consumer's asset base rises with the growth in stock and real estate prices. But by it nature, the consumer like the corporation takes on additional liabilities to compensate for the rise in the asset base. The consumer's problem is that, as US corporate profits decline so will stock prices and a source of his asset wealth. The other asset bubble creates problems not yet seen for the economy. As the RE bubble expands, investors look at the equity extracted from high real estate prices and spend that money. What they fail to see is that a rise in property prices force consumers to take on more debt to finance home buying. The increase interest costs from the home combined with rising interest cost on consumer credit cards has stripped away the necessary disposable income to drive future consumption. As consumer and mortgage debt expands, a greater amount of income will be necessary for the interest payments and leave very little else for consumption.

All asset bubbles lead to debt-trap dynamics and DEFLATION. Assets wealth is destroyed and all that is left is a gigantic amount of liabilities. The next ten to twenty years will be spent paying back all this debt. As was the case in Japan, when asset prices fall consumption is curtailed as borrowing proves non-existent. Despite any attempt by the central bank to push interest rates lower, the consumer won't borrow and won't spend. As a result, prices fall as demand falls.
"
MORE:

UNQUOTE

I suggest you move to "put your house(s) in order" while there is still time.
Piling into BTL is not the way to go.

LINKS:
Spreadsheet with Inflation-adj. House Prices: (thanks, xxx):
RATE Thread:

[energyi] 21/5/2002 09:00

It's already started (the bubble-bursting) in the USA:

"From: Charles Macdonald Monday, May 20, 2002 8:53 PM
Respond to of 12774

Slider - "..pick up some very nice assets"
On that note, driving through one of "the" neighborhoods to live in here in Charlotte NC this past weekend and literally 1 out of every 3 homes were on the market. These homes average from 500K to 1.5M.

The interesting thing is that these homes are for the most part owned by the investment banking or financial community of Charlotte. Driving through the neighborhood you can see it in their faces that they "see" what is coming. Still employed, but you never know attitudes.

When 3 out of 4 homes in a cul-de-sac are for sale, imagine the power of the buyer who walks in with cash and starts the bidding.

Currently planning on throwing bullion in the center and buying the entire cul-de-sac in 12 to 16 months ...Plus their leased rover, golf membership, custom fitted 1 Wood burner, Fountain boat, etc. "

QUESTION:
Know any Investment Bankers in the UK?
How many BTL's are in those weak hands?

[foodiebuilding] 21/5/2002 08:48

sorry energi, for nicking your title

not on the PBB just wanted to know what its all about

[energyi] 21/5/2002 08:45

Hmmm... I started a Thread with the same name on the PBB.
Wonder what foodie has in mind?

To kick this off, here's a comment from the insightful and very
forthright "Slider-on-the-Black" who comments on Silicon Investor.
With his track record in calling the top in stocks and bottom
in precious metals, I wouldn't want to bet against him.

He, for one, thinks Property (in the US, maybe UK too) will be
the next big bubble to burst. His comment:

From: SliderOnTheBlack Monday, May 20, 2002 8:03 PM
re: this recent faux-rally

Anyone else getting the "feel" that the shills on Wall Street finally realize that more & more individual investors are not & will not be joining the party ?

The ESF & Fed Party-Boy's gun the futures in unison and the Fundies all jumped on the Cisco Pro-Forma Bandwagon and tried to "sell" the rally... but, no one came to the party.... and whodathunkit ? - within 72 hours they were all left standing around looking at each other with those stupid party hats on ...and no one else came to the party ?

These fund managers are nearly "fully" invested in equities and there isn't any fresh money from Ma & Pa Kettle coming in to play the momenteum game here... not with Enron, not with Anderson, not with the Merill analysts emailing each other about how stupid "we" were for buying the worthless paper "they" were pushing...and not with S&P PE's where they are...the CHARADE has eneded~

- put a fork in it.

The Debt implosion and all of it's ramifications are just starting...

Corporate cutbacks and layoffs are going to ramp over the next 3-4 qtrs as reality sets in... and I still say 8.5 to 10% unemployment is coming.

The Dollar has cracked and the Real Estate Bubble is next.

...if you play it right; there's going to be "some of us" with a $hitload of cash & gold/silver profits who are going to be able to waltz in and pick up some very nice RE Assets in the next couple of years.

...still nothing but potential Rogue Wave Catalayst events all over the market and all over the GeoPolitical World... this isn't going to end pretty and today I think we saw the beginning of some old time Wall St vets... realizing that the writing is on the wall for another 1966-1982 Deja Vu all over again -period coming down the pike...there sure are some "gaunt" looks forming on their faces of late.
LINK: