Bright Futures Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 07/9/2004 14:19

Looks like the ex finance director's stock has been placed. No announcement yet , but a number of shares corresponding to his holding have marked. Let's just hope they have gone into firm hands.

I would agree with simonevans that a fundraising looks likely in the not too distant future, but if this aids growth then I am happy to support.

tiltonboy

[simonevans] 07/9/2004 08:10

Yes - looked a bit disappointing. CS also appointed. Fundraising looks on the cards for the roll-out programme?

[slapdash] 03/9/2004 17:46

Results coming up and someone bought at 8p today which I guess bodes well. I guess the big figures to look for are sales and earnings per share.

Sales should be between £3m and £4m and earnings per share somewhere at about 0.4p. If it was to go over 0.5p that would be great. Key thing is that these results should prove once and for all that the business model is scalable, resiliant and capable of significant growth.

Also the thing to look for is cash inflow and the cash balance. For the full year before the cash inflow from operations was around £200,000 but after expenditure this was negligable. Hopefully, Net cash inflow will be positive now.

Secondly, the cash balances at year end were around £400,000 so lets hope that this is increased. It will demonstrate that they have managed to expand without significant outlays.

We shall see. Watch this space.

Slapper

[slapdash] 11/8/2004 22:12

I'm going to wait for the stock price to come down... the increase should encourage a few sellers... then may buy later...

Slapper

[bullandbear] 11/8/2004 17:05

agree but i guess its a question of risk and whether you want the stock.. Ill be happier is there is more volume for now... cheers

[slapdash] 11/8/2004 16:05

BullandBear..

I agree... if it can increase on the back of so little volume it can also fall like a stone... on little volume... and if you buy a big steak the spreads will be large and it may not even be possible to sell all at once...

Slapper

[bullandbear] 11/8/2004 15:18

the only thing putting me off at the moment is the large movement on such a small amount of volume, yes I agree its normal for stocks this size, just concerned it will drop like a stone on no volumes

[40plus] 11/8/2004 15:05

B/Bear - Depends what you need but if you subcribe to T1ps.com and Watshot.com it'll cost you around £100 per year combined - Hardly a king's ransom! - Just 1 point though - There is currently only the original Tip dated Nov 2003 with no updates as yet - IMO it will at least give you a lot of the numbers to crunch in your analysis. MWM always covers lots of stocks including ASC the current runaway star but by luck or good management I managed to be in them before he started coverage! Suspect he'll only pick up on BRF again when there is either news or a particular chart point is reached. Best to be in before then I think.

[bullandbear] 11/8/2004 14:00

guys, thanks for your replies, it was most helpful.. shall think about it while I do a bit of research.. Thanks again it was most appreciated.

is it worth suscribing to the watshot.com site..

[tiltonboy] 11/8/2004 13:58

slapper,

I did say the links were now tenuous, but he was the guy that reversed the current business into BRF, so his record in finding embryonic companies for the shells means the observation has some merit. I forgot to mention ARX which has also had a rollercoaster ride, and again was a ME deal.

I was in on the Oxygen placing, which was a once in a lifetime experience. I was tied in to a lot of the shares, and watched them go down the tubes.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 11/8/2004 13:34

slapdash,

A bit historical the Mike Edelson link.

He was the guy that launched(and still launching)AIM cash shells. His previous ones have included two of the most famous ones, Knutsford, where Archie Norman and others went on board to make a bid for a major retailer. The shares went from 5p to a couple of quid, and back again. Oxygen was another one in the tech boom, and from a placing price of 2p, they traded on the first day at 60p....those were the days.

Basically what he did was to float the cash shell, and then in short order, get a reversal. After the reversal has been done he disappears into the background.

The link with BRF is now rather tenuous, but his other shells all seem to be gaining attention.

tiltonboy

[slapdash] 11/8/2004 13:09

Sorry Tiltonboy who is Mike Edelson.... He doesn't appear in the list of BRF large shareholders... So I'm not quite sure why this is 'one of his vehicles????

Slapper

[tiltonboy] 11/8/2004 12:47

Couldn't resist the temptation and topped up with another 25K.

[40plus] 11/8/2004 12:09

Slapdash/Bullandbear - I'm a subscriber to Mark Watson Mitchell's site (MWM) I referred to above. Suggest you subscribe and then you can read the research www.watshot.com. Although Mark tends to be too short termist for my liking a lot of his research throws up gems like these which are worth following for the long term.

I think the MMs took advantage of the Tip at the time and have walked the price down on minimal volume. Its the old format of roll out that appeals to me and if they manage to achieve their goals then this should be a multibagger. Looks like minimal volume buys today has ticked the price up!

I'll be assessing progress on each of the announcements and have my own price target on a 5 year basis which would give a market Cap of 50Mn. DYOR and IMHO don't get spooked by the short-term movements unless they are based on facts.

For anyone new to the stock BRF intend to roll out mobility stores on both an owned basis and franchise basis. Market currently is very fragmented with owner operators and no real market leader - We all may need their services at some time.

Not for Widows and Orphans but have a look.

[tiltonboy] 11/8/2004 12:00

BandB,

This is another of Mike Edelson's shells.

The company looks to have a good business model, and there are signs that the company is turning into decent profitability.

The shares have been held back by a seller of late(possibly the departed FD), but have broken out of their recent trading range, today.

I'm hoping this will be another ASC, which was also a ME shell, and whose shares languished for ages, before coming a 10 bagger this year. I can't see them emulating that performance, but can certainly see them into double figures.

tiltonboy

[bullandbear] 11/8/2004 11:49

Hi im new to this stock/. Can anyone provide a very brief outline of its history and whats going on at the mo, while I delve into the detailed stuff of the company.

[slapdash] 27/7/2004 09:59

Top banana

40Plus who is MWM? And why is this company profitable going forward when it wasn't profitable this year? Also do you have the research piece that MWM produced?

Slap

[slapdash] 23/7/2004 18:03

looks like you moved the price too 40plus

[40plus] 23/7/2004 16:40

Slapdash - Rome wasn't built in a day - Took the recent weakness to buy some today. This is a long term story that is still on the starting blocks. Can't see it being this low in a years time which is my minimum timeframe for investment. MWM did a research piece on his site in Nov after which the shares have slid from 12p to 5.5p. Sometimes this happens with small and illiquid shares but his estimates (and I like 'format' rollouts) going forward look achievable. I've only taken a small position relative to my overall porfolio and you could class it as a 'punt' until further news . . .

[slapdash] 23/7/2004 16:18

If exceptionals are taken away (i.e. business sales) then the company only just broke even. This concurs with the predictions below from a previous post:

Nov 03 Post
SQC Research is going for

£5m sales in 2003 and break even
£6.95m in 2004 and £275,000 pre-tax profit (0.82p eps)
£9.5m in 2005 and £500,000 pre-tax (1.50p eps)
£15m in 2005 and £1m pre-tax (3.00p eps).

Let me show why no on-going profits were made in 2003

The company reported profits after tax of £120,000 which if we add back goodwill ammortised gives us £240,000. All very nice and juicy.

However, the exceptional gains from disposals were £150,000 and £75,000 which gives £225,000. So in reality it is these exceptional gains which generated the supposed profits for the year. I.e. very easy to make a 'profit' if you sell part of your business. At an on-going basis the firm only broke-even.

For 2004 the company have taken on more overheads in order to 'scale the business'. So it isn't clear what profits they will make if any. It may, therefore, be a couple of years before earnings per share really take off. 2004 may even see a loss.

And while they still make losses I'm afraid the business model isn't proven.

Any comments

Slapper

[slapdash] 23/7/2004 10:00

Anyone been to any of their shops?

Also usually financial directors leaving or being sacked is a very bad sign. Perhaps best to go through the accounts with a fine tooth comb to see if any thing
is amiss

Slap

[hugepants] 23/7/2004 08:10

slap, Do they not usually just release a one sentence statement like 'the finance director has left the company with immediate effect'.