Brainjuicer Share Discussion Threads

[markie7] 21/3/2013 12:18

"During the year, the Group made sales to companies connected to Unilever Ventures, of which Mark Muth is a director, totalling GBP1,475,767 (2011: GBP1,944,472). The balance outstanding at the year-end amounted to GBP422,169 (2011: GBP447,500)."

This was an interesting note. Shows that Unilever sales fell by 25%. So, I guess the rest of the business grew a bit more than is immediately obvious.

The worry would be that Unilever is still around 10% of the turnover, and this absolute number seems to be falling.

[pentangle] 21/3/2013 07:51

Quote from annual statement - We are having a promising start to 2013 and we remain determined to continue to build the business in 2013 and beyond. We stress again however that we have limited visibility and so cannot predict with any certainty how the rest of the year will unfold.

And therein lies the problem. Insufficient visibility on future earnings means that BJU is never going to warrant a high PE.

[jamielein] 02/2/2013 19:15

I agree completely. In my previous post (number 140) I did think they would go to 200p. They still don't look tempting enough for me at this price.

[pentangle] 02/2/2013 18:15

The current forecasts from the house broker, Cannacord (17th Jan) are 8.1p for the year just finished and 13.2p for 2013. This equates to PER of about 25 for the year just completed and something over 15 for the current year. Given the credibility issues following the failure to deliver last year, I still feel this is way too high to be tempting.

It is going to need a good couple of years of solid growth and no more slip ups before this share warrants the sort of rating it has historically been given.

[woozle1] 01/1/2013 10:08

Longo .. Quote July 2012: "where is that plonker Woozle1? Hope no one was suckered in by his random rants" .. Well here I am to remind you of that very common emotion when things are going well, hubris .. Hindsights a wonderful thing but I think the seeds for this profit warning were sown in the HY statement when the gross profit was below 5 year trend and revenue per employee (which in people businesses is probably the better indicator) was down .. Also interesting to see that margins on older products are lower which could imply the competition is arriving, hence they can't charge as much .. The key is how quickly they can move clients over to higher margin products but again the competition will be coming .. Then there's the problem of an overall slowdown in marketing spend which is hitting all types of research spend, as happened in 2007/8 .. I' m expecting a warning from YouGov shortly for this reason (where as you know I'm an investor) .. The valuation has always been my gripe and with EPS of 13, the stock still looks too expensive .. Anymore bad news in Jan or Feb and this stock will ratchet down further and then it will start to be an interesting investment .. As Buffet says, buy when other are fearful and sell when they greedy .. W

[woozle1] 31/12/2012 21:54

Hi there Longie .. Don't say you weren't warned by moi about high growth gogo stocks .. No doubt you got out before things got nasty .. W

[topvest] 22/11/2012 11:23

Edison have put out a revised forecast - 5p this year and 13p next I think. Still overvalued with only a 3p dividend? Surprised this hasn't fallen further.

[jamielein] 20/11/2012 20:26

Unfortunately I'm going to have to remove these from my watchlist. They were on there due to their track record of steadily growing profits over a number of years. Now there will be a decline in profitability when an increase was expected.

I don't think I quite realised the risk at the time, and it was only the high PE that put me off buying at £3. They continued to rise so I just left them on the watchlist, thinking I must've made an error.

As I posted this morning, if I had held I definitely would've sold first thing based on this statement, as I expected a 20%+ drop. I was quite surprised that it was possible to sell at 310p this morning.

I don't know what a fair value would be for these - I wouldn't buy at all but if I had to estimate I'd say around 200p for now, unless something changes. If they start to grow again, then they'll go significantly higher.

Good luck to everyone who is holding. I'm not saying they're a bad company, I just wouldn't buy them based on the criteria that I use to invest.

Regards,
Jamie

[kenmitch] 20/11/2012 15:35

Didn't get a reply about Director selling following a post saying "why would anyone sell?" Now we know the answer. Not holding fortunately having sold for a good profit a while ago, and won't be buying now. Thanks longshanks for your posts. You helped convince me to buy and the too high PE was the reason for selling in time. Hope the share price recovers for those still holding.

[markie7] 20/11/2012 13:02

ouch, reminds me of my post in January


Brainjuicer - Fresher Insights, Better Marketing - BJU
Markie7 - 19 Jan 2012 - 09:48:57 - 105 of 138
that sort of growth needs to be at expected, at this rating. one slip up and this is halving. check out the you gov chart for the last "hot thing" in research

[stegrego] 20/11/2012 12:49

Been watching these for a while, but they always looked a bit expensive to me. That didnt stop the non stop rise though.

However, today after a 28% drop, they look more expensive than ever.

I can never grasp the pe's on companies like this, as they appear to defy gravity. However, on a normal AIM metric, these ought to be worth about 10-12x earnings.

Which would equate to probably 100 to 120p. Still selling for double that.

[pentangle] 20/11/2012 12:12

pame100 - Unfortunately I think you may be a bit too optimistic. I do not think the figures you mention would justify the company saying 'Pre-tax profits for the full year are therefore now expected to be substantially below the £2.8m achieved in 2011.'

[pame100] 20/11/2012 10:53

revenues are up 11%. costs are up 12%. . on extrapolating these figures to 2011 results i estimate that pre tax earnings will be down 3-4%. however, with a tax rate of 25% i estimate that eps will be 16pps. Whats the panic!

[silverfern] 20/11/2012 10:19

£120k of sells knocks £11m cap off the price- too illiquid by far. However the statement suggests a lot more than 2p a share pentangle. Rising costs and falling revenues in their crucial months? I am reminded of IDH a while back - wonderful story but no-one has a market to themselves for long. As its illiquid however a few small purchases could prompt a rise before final results. (I was a holder two years ago and always on my watchlist FWIW)

[pentangle] 20/11/2012 09:02

I really like this company, but thought they were fully priced and sold out the middle of last year for a good profit. Still following though. Last year they made EPS of 14.1p. If we are looking at something 'substantially' lower this year, then maybe 10-12p? So this equates to a current year PER up in the 20s which is way too high for an ex growth stock, until they prove they are not ex.

Worth watching for opportunities as I like the products and I like the management.

[longshanks] 20/11/2012 08:57

I try to hold a balanced opinion. I am still broadly bullish on this stock - but AIM, liquidity and general market sentiment are negatives I have to consider when facts come to light. You can't issue a profit warning with impunity - I just never expected it.

If it is any comfort I won't be selling on this news but I will buy more when the price has settled.

[silverfern] 20/11/2012 08:02

how does that view square with your post on 24 Sept? I presume you hold a whack of these - my issue has always been the illiquidity of stock . THIs might halt a major fall today if no-=one sells, but if otherwise...

[longshanks] 20/11/2012 07:58

Yep - looks like their vulnerability to swings in short-term trading has been exposed. I can see the price weakening on this - possibly a fair way below £3 as there is no real opportunity now for them to say it is a "one-off" bad year until next November.

Could be signs of general weakening in the markets for the industry as a whole - might be worth shorting some of the big players.

[jamielein] 20/11/2012 07:52

Not a very good trading update. Looks like these will open 10% lower but to be honest I'd expect at least a 20% drop if not more.

These have been on my watchlist for a while but I certainly won't be buying anytime soon.

[kenmitch] 28/9/2012 10:59

So why have 2 Directors sold?

[theophilus] 25/9/2012 03:03

Or to be more exact the voulme of shares traded each way and the stock held by the mms.

But that was not what I was I was querying so much as the timing of the price rise. Usually it would be the day of the results or next day. But this one showed little reaction then but suddently moves up one week later.

Anyway as long as they move up the timing is not all that important. I added to my holding the day before and the day of the results.

And as you say Why should anyone sell!"

Th.

[longshanks] 24/9/2012 09:45

More people buying than selling theophilus....and why should anyone want to sell yet?

Good solid upwards progress as always with this stock - should see £5/share this year.

[theophilus] 24/9/2012 08:17

What's happening?

A belated upward reaction to the results?

Th.

[longshanks] 17/7/2012 08:53

Where is that plonker Woozle1. Hope no-one was suckered into selling by his random ranting.