Braemore Res Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 24/9/2009 07:58

There has been no suggestion of ramping or cheerleading by me. The issues, as such, were the 'authoratitive and absolute pronouncements' such as "the likelihood of a takeover of Braemore in the near future is zero, unless the price is very right. i.e. a very large multiple of the current share price." (only 5 weeks prior to the first takeover announcement) often followed by condescension toward other posters who might not necessarily agree with her.

When it comes to individual investment decisions everyone is responsible for their own judgement calls and the weight that they give to each individual source of information. Whatever the circumstances I certainly do not hold anyone else responsible for my investment decisions although I would always maintain that company directors have a responsibility to present a balanced and realistic view of a company's financial position and trading outlook (this remark is general and not specific to any individual business).

[soggy] 24/9/2009 07:31

I am certain that Wendy is big enough to look after herself, but I do feel somewhat taken aback that anyone should try to criticise her for her contributions!

There is nobody, absolutely nobody, who has brought as much factual information about this company and it's business environment to ths bb. The quality of the research, the grasp of the detail as well as the macro picture has been astonishing at times.

But above all, it beggars belief that anyone can overlook her consistent and persistent admonitions to DYOR. At every turn she made it plain that all she was doing was telling us what the process was, how it worked and how it could a huge transforming business in the industry. And at every turn she plainly stated that this was NOT a get rich quick stock, that it was one to tuck away and come back to in a couple of years. (I'm not going to trawl through the thousands of posts to find them - but believe me, they're there because I took great note of them.)

Sorry Wendy, I know you don't need anyone to fight your corner for you, but I feel obliged to put on record here that your contribution has always been just brilliant, understated, trustworthy, balanced and insightful. And you could never be accused of ramping or mindless cheerleading.

[heno614] 23/9/2009 23:28

Masurenguy,
And your contribution to the BB, other than a vendetta against wdurham is ?

[genie] 23/9/2009 22:44

Interestingly in a letter I received from Barclays Stockbrokers it states that:

(after the 2nd November 2009)

"Braemore then intends to re-register as a private company."

[masurenguy] 23/9/2009 21:30

wdurham - 23 Sep'09 - 19644: So without Jubilee and a bit of Northern common sense and business acuity from Colin Bird, Braemore would have gone to the wall many weeks ago, and shareholders would have lost everything.

A very different song, with the benefit of hindsight, than you were consistently singing just a few months ago.

wdurham - 14 Apr'09 - 16692: You will realise just how pointless it is if you understand that progress has been continuous and encouraging all the while the share price was sliding. The only bits of bad news in the last 2-3 years have been in the last 3-4 weeks - increased losses and the smelter incident. Subsequent to which the share price has doubled. Perhaps we should beg the Braemore directors for some more bad news?

wdurham - 21 May'09 - 17102: I think there comes a time in every company's history where you just have to place a level of faith in the company's ability to assess the market, assess their projects, and adapt to the company's benefit when circumstances change.

wdurham - 22 May'09 - 17148: As for a takeover, ask yourself what Atomaer might feel they would be willing to accept for 10 years of sheer hard graft in WA and several years with Conroast in SA.....the "right" price would have to be very, VERY right!

wdurham - 28 May'09 - 17212: IMO, the likelihood of a takeover of Braemore in the near future is zero, unless the price is very right. i.e. a very large multiple of the current share price.

Maybe a little humility would be more appropriate as a change from just frequently calling many of the other posters 'stupid'

[wdurham] 23/9/2009 20:26

Trouble is, WStirrup, they have tried. And tried.

In early 2007 they turned down the massively discounted placing they were offered in the City.

In mid 2008 they had no choice but to accept a heavily discounted placing for £6 mill - they had a smelter to upgrade as well as all the normal costs of running a company with diverse interests in two countries. Worth noting that their contracted commitment to Mintek for the development and commercialisation of Conroast was a full $15 million.

In May this year they again turned down the pittance they were being offered by the City. I heard rumours of 2p per share, when the price was in the 5-7p range. They hoped to obtain bank lending, but this also came to nothing in view of the parlous state of smelting profits due to the high rand.

Nobody understands the company or the IP to which they have exclusive access. And nobody is prepared to find out. All the City wants to know is "How much profit?" and that's something Braemore have never been able to guarantee or give them figures on.

So without Jubilee and a bit of Northern common sense and business acuity from Colin Bird, Braemore would have gone to the wall many weeks ago, and shareholders would have lost everything.

Braemore have held the future of the Bushveld in their hands, and no-one, but no-one, has had the nous or the desire to see it, understand it, and finance it.

The high-sulphide, low-chrome Merensky reef, on which the entire smelting industry in SA is based, is running out at economically mineable depths. Increasingly miners are turning to the UG2, which on the Western Limb lies only a few metres (60-100) under the Merensky, and on the Eastern Limb - whilst it is usually a few hundred metres below the Merensky - is sometimes the only PGM surface expression at all due to erosion of the tilted layers of the Bushveld intrusion out on the eastern edge. See Smokey Hills and Everest as examples.

And then ask yourself, why did Impala want to buy Northam? It wasn't for the Northam Mine, which is the deepest on the Bushveld, but for Booysendal on the Eastern Limb - which in addition to millions of ounces of UG2 hosted-PGMs also has a vast amount of Merensky reef. Merensky ore is the key to the survival of the current smelting organisation on the Bushveld. They must have copious amounts of it to blend with the UG2 which is increasingly coming their way - but the Merensky is a smaller proportion every year of the total ore being mined on both Limbs....

The UG2 crunch is coming. In fact, given the recent news out of Lonmin, it has already come for them. They rebuilt their No 1 furnace at the turn of the year and put it back into operation in January. Since then they've had two runouts, and are now on low-capacity production, with all their inefficient Pyromets back in action to take up the shortfall until they can again rebuild No 1 early next year.

Jubilee may be luckier than Braemore were. Times aren't quite as hard as they've been for the last 15 months. Things are still pretty bad on the Bushveld, but are slowly improving as PGMs inch higher in price. If nothing else, Jubilee will be able to remain quite independent of the rapacious big three smelters as and when Tjate comes into production, and can reap almost all of the benefit from their mining effort instead of only 80% of it.

[wstirrup] 23/9/2009 11:38

Cheers Wendy.

I for one am grateful for the sometimes necessarily long postings you've made, as I come to understand this company and its core assets.

Having digested some of the news of late, it would appear to be "Just Bad luck" that at the time the technology was coming to the proof, the funds suddenly dried up to get us to the next stage.

The only criticism one could level at the management is that their timing could have been better in putting capital behind the business. Though that's with the benefit of 20-20 vision... i.e. Hindsight.

2 or so years ago it was obvious to many we might have a blow up in the credit markets as the over-leveraged positions in the finance industry unwound, but we can hardly blame management in Africa for not having their finger on the pulse of international finance, and not having a crystal ball to hand on a daily basis.

W.

[wdurham] 22/9/2009 19:30

Smell -

Yes, Ruukki and Sylvania think they can break/use/circumvent the Mintek patent.

Fact is, they can't, in spite of the fact that they are still picturing the Mintek smelter on their presentations.

The technology they have at their disposal in those large DC arc furnaces at Mogale Alloys is for FERROCHROME. Not PGMs.

Mintek reserved the treatment of PGM bearing concentrates in DC arc furnaces to themselves.



There are also European and South African patents for the same process.

[geko5trade] 22/9/2009 18:43

They clearly want people to believe that. But if they really believed it themselves would we not see some detail of how they are going to achieve it rather than borrowing from the BRR presentation?

[smelleroo] 22/9/2009 18:38

slv and ruukki clearly believe that there are other answers to south africa's smelting problems.

however if anyone can make money from conroast colin bird can, proven track record of selling companies

smell

[sleveen] 22/9/2009 18:36

good post wd

[wdurham] 22/9/2009 18:26

If the sceptics can stand to listen to a positive view of Braemore from the man who's buying it...



And for the Coetzer trashers, take particular note of the last few minutes.

Those that also trash the company and its projects and assets should bear in mind that Bird has been in this industry since before most of you had ever even heard of the Bushveld. And the only reason he didn't buy Braemore 2 years ago was the price they would have been able to command at the time.

When talking of Conroast:

"It's the answer to South Africa's smelting problems"
"The weakness of the PGM juniors is that they are contract miners for the Big Three smelting companies"
"Mintek and Braemore can do it - no-one else can"
"It's not about DC arc furnace technology - it's about the IP"
"Braemore has paid for it - and paid dearly for it."

I've always talked about Braemore's "perfect storm". Bird calls it a "financial tsunami". Same difference.

I remain as positive as I have always been about Conroast, and the Atomaer technology as applicable to the Nickel West tailings. I shall follow the technology to Jubilee. Colin Bird thinks he can make a lot of money out of it. Far be it from me to disagree with him.

So those that want to trash me too are welcome to do so. The sensible people can, however, separate the wheat from the chaff, and appreciate that advocating and explaining the strength of a technology is not the same as saying "Buy, buy, buy!".

[davidtil] 22/9/2009 17:30

BRR whats it for ?????

[aaspell] 22/9/2009 17:22

LMAO - all of a sudden doesn't 15.818 for 1 JLP seem like we are the ones getting a good deal? BRR market cap of what ????

[davidtil] 22/9/2009 16:33

BRR was going bust

how ?

[konil] 22/9/2009 16:18

anyone slagging off wd is wide of the mark. her research and tech understanding of public domain info are top notch. internal company shenanigans are never known till its too late, else it would be insider dealing by definition.

whether management are culpable of misleading the investment community or not, is another matter, and possibly an open question in this case.

[judijudi] 22/9/2009 14:54

Yep we sure do
They were all but bust yet all the while claiming all was well. Right up until the very end

[heno614] 22/9/2009 14:50

Now we know why BRR accepted the 16 to 1 offer by JLP.

[carpingtris] 22/9/2009 14:34

How many times do you here, don't listen to experts! DYOR.....

[judijudi] 22/9/2009 14:32

Total and utter shambolic mis-management and incompetence of the highest order
All the while claiming all was well in the garden
All but criminal

[judijudi] 22/9/2009 14:32

100% correct

[masurenguy] 22/9/2009 14:28

A loss of £7.4m compared to a loss of £1.4m last year. What an unmitigated disaster !

The deal with JLP was a last gasp lifeline to a drowning man. The only possibility of shareholders regaining any value in the future now rests with the JLP takeover and prospects. What a shambles this turned out to be with WD taking centre stage as the self appointed 'expert' cheerleader !

[popper4] 22/9/2009 14:13

Pretty much expected trading statement warning, had to be.